{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZF68TFNXF6",
  "slug": "july-unemployment-rate-20260702221240753",
  "question": "Will the July unemployment rate be below 4% by August 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "labor-market",
    "unemployment",
    "us-economic-data",
    "monthly-indicator"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the U.S. July 2026 unemployment rate as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nine discrete Polymarket strikes span from 3.9% and below to 4.7% and above, forming a probability distribution across rate outcomes. Together they imply a market-consensus central tendency and tail risk on either side. All nine resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the BLS Employment Situation Report published August 7, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-BS0ZSBGWV5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.39,
    "implied_probability": 0.39
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DW7PP5QMJ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZF68TFNXF6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe8ee4e5ead3949113ad3483cdc0fca586a15c98def08574e3918f26af0f87e98",
      "question": "Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThe relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This marke",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "≤3.9%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report for July 2026, published August 7, 2026, determines the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in Table A-15.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T08:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T08:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThe relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nIf no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 235.0145,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 3.9,
      "question_id": "CMX-9A476A7C59",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "labor",
        "unemployment",
        "us",
        "us unemployment rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZPP6LQRZV7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZF68TFNXF6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xaf8f8240a378d544e534a7f758617863f67c80cc847d1114d07d8cd187967425",
      "question": "Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThe relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This marke",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "4.0%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report for July 2026, published August 7, 2026, determines the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in Table A-15.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T08:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T08:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThe relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nIf no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.083,
      "implied_probability": 0.083,
      "volume_24h_usd": 14.457446,
      "volume_total_usd": 631.600044,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-C73A534366",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "labor",
        "unemployment",
        "us",
        "us unemployment rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7GX39DMGV2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZF68TFNXF6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8ad42f13a4ed410e1244bc45a3f33fd19f212bec44b47906ca9fff6e9fcf40cb",
      "question": "Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThe relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This marke",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "4.1%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report for July 2026, published August 7, 2026, determines the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in Table A-15.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T08:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T08:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThe relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nIf no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.27,
      "implied_probability": 0.27,
      "volume_24h_usd": 15.205262,
      "volume_total_usd": 4063.68407,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 4.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-8F5D7CE438",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "labor",
        "unemployment",
        "us",
        "us unemployment rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CJZNWZ1VD3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZF68TFNXF6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6a1866c096710b270ada2b422523efa159f6e2857a07444965bba292cc96a57e",
      "question": "Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThe relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This marke",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "4.2%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report for July 2026, published August 7, 2026, determines the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in Table A-15.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T08:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T08:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThe relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nIf no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.27,
      "implied_probability": 0.27,
      "volume_24h_usd": 769.339215,
      "volume_total_usd": 9856.708644000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 4.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-C46F6A84BC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "labor",
        "unemployment",
        "us",
        "us unemployment rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BS0ZSBGWV5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZF68TFNXF6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x781b1f0ba112bbbaab511db1360f825c25d0cb3c9d14940735c990f89f9019de",
      "question": "Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThe relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This marke",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "4.3%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report for July 2026, published August 7, 2026, determines the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in Table A-15.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T08:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T08:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThe relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nIf no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.39,
      "implied_probability": 0.39,
      "volume_24h_usd": 531.414943,
      "volume_total_usd": 13710.879883000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 4.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-958D83C820",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "labor",
        "unemployment",
        "us",
        "us unemployment rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-61V1KX2J52",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZF68TFNXF6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6a325e3d16bd0384279065c251fccabe0ec8376e9147249a27284cf27b6f8fe3",
      "question": "Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThe relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This marke",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "4.4%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report for July 2026, published August 7, 2026, determines the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in Table A-15.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T08:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T08:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThe relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nIf no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.085,
      "implied_probability": 0.085,
      "volume_24h_usd": 123.059118,
      "volume_total_usd": 1505.9232150000003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 4.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-E7C644D74B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "labor",
        "unemployment",
        "us",
        "us unemployment rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WLSDQCJBR3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZF68TFNXF6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf7cafcc208409beebaec52a0723756e402c6bdcb151f53c6194a06a95efdaa60",
      "question": "Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThe relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This marke",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "4.5%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report for July 2026, published August 7, 2026, determines the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in Table A-15.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T08:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T08:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThe relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nIf no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.039,
      "implied_probability": 0.039,
      "volume_24h_usd": 272.5015,
      "volume_total_usd": 1119.2395540000005,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 4.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-E79EC25993",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "labor",
        "unemployment",
        "us",
        "us unemployment rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TTD5P0R2M2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZF68TFNXF6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0aad85ecbe0206ef9865b335611d08ae8d268200cf59846560c60ca9604460fb",
      "question": "Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.6%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThe relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This marke",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "4.6%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report for July 2026, published August 7, 2026, determines the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in Table A-15.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T08:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T08:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThe relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nIf no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.044,
      "implied_probability": 0.044,
      "volume_24h_usd": 124.67072,
      "volume_total_usd": 969.684793,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 4.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-B7AAD17CFE",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-VP9FT0PJ12",
          "price": 0.02
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      "tags": [
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        "unemployment",
        "us",
        "us unemployment rate"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4HKJXRRPH2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZF68TFNXF6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x964fbf21fcd664109e7968ceca19a2a7951991241866abb1bcb33a80f76b5dbb",
      "question": "Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThe relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This marke",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "≥4.7%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report for July 2026, published August 7, 2026, determines the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in Table A-15.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T08:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T08:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThe relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nIf no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Monthly Employment Situation Report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.004,
      "implied_probability": 0.004,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 283.15459999999996,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.7,
      "question_id": "CMX-6A1774010F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "labor",
        "unemployment",
        "us",
        "us unemployment rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-ZF68TFNXF6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}