{
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    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-TNM3W7MHZ5",
  "slug": "kadyrov-out-as-head-of-the-chechen-republic-by",
  "question": "Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "politics",
    "russian-politics",
    "chechen-republic",
    "leadership-change",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to hold the Head of the Chechen Republic title by three sequential deadlines in 2026. The March 31, June 30, and December 31 contracts are structured as a tenor ladder: earlier strikes imply later ones, but not vice versa. All three resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. Kadyrov's health speculation and Kremlin succession dynamics are the primary drivers of implied probability across tenors.",
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-CHZ3VR0B42",
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  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
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      "question": "Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "Ramzan Kadyrov is currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic, the highest political office of the Chechen Republic, a Republic of Russia.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to be Head of the Chechen Republic for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nRamzan Kadyrov will be considered to cease being the Head of the Chechen Republic if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Head of the Chechen Republic within this market's timeframe.\n\nT",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to be Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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      "status": "resolved",
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        "rules_raw": "Ramzan Kadyrov is currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic, the highest political office of the Chechen Republic, a Republic of Russia.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to be Head of the Chechen Republic for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nRamzan Kadyrov will be considered to cease being the Head of the Chechen Republic if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Head of the Chechen Republic within this market's timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chechen Republic and the Russian Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "score": 24,
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "uncommitted_placeholder"
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?",
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      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "Ramzan Kadyrov is currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic, the highest political office of the Chechen Republic, a Republic of Russia.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to be Head of the Chechen Republic for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nRamzan Kadyrov will be considered to cease being the Head of the Chechen Republic if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Head of the Chechen Republic within this market's timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chechen Republic and the Russian Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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      "question": "Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by March 31, 2026?",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
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        "rules_raw": "Ramzan Kadyrov is currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic, the highest political office of the Chechen Republic, a Republic of Russia.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to be Head of the Chechen Republic for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nRamzan Kadyrov will be considered to cease being the Head of the Chechen Republic if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Head of the Chechen Republic within this market's timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chechen Republic and the Russian Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-TNM3W7MHZ5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}