{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-TNM3W7MHZ5",
  "slug": "kadyrov-out-as-head-of-the-chechen-republic-by",
  "question": "Will Ramzan Kadyrov be removed as Head of the Chechen Republic in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "chechen-politics",
    "russian-politics",
    "leadership-transition",
    "2026",
    "political-removal"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to hold the Chechen Republic leadership by three sequential deadlines: March 31, June 30, and December 31, 2026. The March 31 contract has already resolved per its resolve_at timestamp of April 1, 2026. The remaining two contracts form a probability term structure across mid- and year-end 2026. Resolution across all three relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, requiring evidence of resignation, detention, or incapacitation.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-CHZ3VR0B42",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XYCH4DHGJ4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TNM3W7MHZ5",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xa4dc1270dd2d755534f1ecd580b0a82458797797bae793bf2cbaf914e655f6dc",
      "question": "Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by March 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Ramzan Kadyrov is currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic, the highest political office of the Chechen Republic, a Republic of Russia.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to be Head of the Chechen Republic for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nRamzan Kadyrov will be considered to cease being the Head of the Chechen Republic if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Head of the Chechen Republic within this market's timeframe.\n\nT",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31: The named official ceases holding the position through resignation, detention, or loss of ability to perform duties, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by July 1, 2026, 6:19 AM UTC.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Ramzan Kadyrov is currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic, the highest political office of the Chechen Republic, a Republic of Russia.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to be Head of the Chechen Republic for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nRamzan Kadyrov will be considered to cease being the Head of the Chechen Republic if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Head of the Chechen Republic within this market's timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chechen Republic and the Russian Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the Chechen Republic and the Russian Government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 95721.69744000005,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "chechen republic",
        "kadyrov",
        "kadyrov chechen republic",
        "russia"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CHZ3VR0B42",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TNM3W7MHZ5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc1a90cbaa26e8e5e79f2a395362a72302ca065b5c5d32aa83e97f3f5b68e7c45",
      "question": "Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "Ramzan Kadyrov is currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic, the highest political office of the Chechen Republic, a Republic of Russia.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to be Head of the Chechen Republic for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nRamzan Kadyrov will be considered to cease being the Head of the Chechen Republic if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Head of the Chechen Republic within this market's timeframe.\n\nT",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: The named official ceases holding the position through resignation, detention, or loss of ability to perform duties, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by July 1, 2026, 6:19 AM UTC.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Ramzan Kadyrov is currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic, the highest political office of the Chechen Republic, a Republic of Russia.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to be Head of the Chechen Republic for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nRamzan Kadyrov will be considered to cease being the Head of the Chechen Republic if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Head of the Chechen Republic within this market's timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chechen Republic and the Russian Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 123720.27305900007,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "chechen republic",
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        "kadyrov chechen republic",
        "russia"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-56QS8R7JK8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TNM3W7MHZ5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x72f0b7ccdf12e2c4dc169edfd853fd67ae25929af6579bc2a52781231a6b1c44",
      "question": "Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Ramzan Kadyrov is currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic, the highest political office of the Chechen Republic, a Republic of Russia.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to be Head of the Chechen Republic for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nRamzan Kadyrov will be considered to cease being the Head of the Chechen Republic if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Head of the Chechen Republic within this market's timeframe.\n\nT",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: The named official ceases holding the position through resignation, detention, or loss of ability to perform duties, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by July 1, 2026, 6:19 AM UTC.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Ramzan Kadyrov is currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic, the highest political office of the Chechen Republic, a Republic of Russia.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to be Head of the Chechen Republic for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nRamzan Kadyrov will be considered to cease being the Head of the Chechen Republic if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Head of the Chechen Republic within this market's timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chechen Republic and the Russian Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T10:00:39.906Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 74818.48522799999,
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CHZ3VR0B42",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T06:19:50Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XYCH4DHGJ4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T07:35:21Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-TNM3W7MHZ5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}