{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-DYW729BW25",
  "slug": "kimi-k3-released-by",
  "question": "Will Moonshot AI's Kimi K3 model be released in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "tech",
    "language-models",
    "moonshot-ai",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Moonshot AI releases its Kimi K3 model by three sequential deadlines: April 30, May 31, and June 30, 2026. The three Polymarket contracts are structured as tiered binary strikes on the same release event. An earlier-deadline resolution implies settlement of all later-deadline contracts as well. All three resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, which determines whether a general public release occurred by each respective date.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-N0823M2453",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N0823M2453",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DYW729BW25",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf825878647b30c23da678649b728ebbdc18b83dc96ee2f630ca7f3929c36f54d",
      "question": "Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by April 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nKimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.\n\nProducts labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.\n\nFo",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether Moonshot AI released Kimi K3 to the general public by April 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nKimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.\n\nProducts labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nIf a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "uncommitted_illustrative"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 33401.92681399999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-38A655F761",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai model",
        "kimi k3",
        "moonshot ai",
        "moonshot ai kimi",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G3GT6QR5P3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DYW729BW25",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd357984e8f297cddb0d877592b1ae67455c7f624a6123a98d636bdc76149ff5f",
      "question": "Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nKimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.\n\nProducts labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.\n\nFo",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether Moonshot AI released Kimi K3 to the general public by April 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nKimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.\n\nProducts labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nIf a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "uncommitted_illustrative"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 5165.411180999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-5FCD63FF5F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai model",
        "kimi k3",
        "moonshot ai",
        "moonshot ai kimi",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1C620JL509",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DYW729BW25",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x049136c0b43ffdeb87b809d86b1e7118385247c99b4f4ed2e5489e07658badfe",
      "question": "Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by May 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nKimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.\n\nProducts labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.\n\nFo",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether Moonshot AI released Kimi K3 to the general public by April 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nKimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.\n\nProducts labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nIf a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "uncommitted_illustrative"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 7005.493398,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-8BC0DE22AB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai model",
        "kimi k3",
        "moonshot ai",
        "moonshot ai kimi",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N0823M2453",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G3GT6QR5P3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1C620JL509",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-DYW729BW25",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}