{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-W60GYW1330",
  "slug": "kraken-ipo-closing-market-cap-above",
  "question": "Kraken IPO closing market capitalization",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      null,
      16000000000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 16000000000,
        "prob": 13
      },
      {
        "threshold": 18000000000,
        "prob": 10
      },
      {
        "threshold": 20000000000,
        "prob": 7
      },
      {
        "threshold": 22000000000,
        "prob": 8
      },
      {
        "threshold": 24000000000,
        "prob": 5
      },
      {
        "threshold": 26000000000,
        "prob": 7
      },
      {
        "threshold": 28000000000,
        "prob": 3
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "kraken",
    "ipo",
    "market-cap",
    "2027",
    "public-markets"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Kraken's first-day closing market capitalization against seven discrete strike thresholds, ranging from $16B to $28B. Each binary contract resolves independently, so the probability curve across strikes implies a market-derived valuation distribution. All seven markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the primary exchange's official listing data. Resolution is set for January 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-RWPQWRSBZ7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.038,
    "implied_probability": 0.038,
    "as_of": "2026-09-06T03:00:39.693Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RWPQWRSBZ7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W60GYW1330",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbf4c5977527c49c7d150c10060d233316912f5a82144b354df173ee3f935bcdf",
      "question": "Kraken IPO closing market cap above $16B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Krakens’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$16B: The named company's closing market capitalization on its first trading day, per the primary exchange's official listing page or reliable alternative source, resolves by January 1, 2027, 5:00 AM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Krakens’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Kraken’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.038,
      "implied_probability": 0.038,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:00:39.693Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 30486.249883999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 16000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-F2F4BA792C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "kraken",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B6GYYBW139",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W60GYW1330",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7f79c9bff9c32c03eea400c76fd32b480942814fc6379359be1cf4dcd468be37",
      "question": "Kraken IPO closing market cap above $18B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Krakens’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$18B: The named company's closing market capitalization on its first trading day, per the primary exchange's official listing page or reliable alternative source, resolves by January 1, 2027, 5:00 AM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Krakens’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Kraken’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.031,
      "implied_probability": 0.031,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-05T14:01:15.763Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 33855.25336799999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 18000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-018E0F62F3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "kraken",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YLGPBZ2813",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W60GYW1330",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5f47769aa66377ef43846de4b0a9b7edbad8db63df68cb9bae4d2b60c0d87471",
      "question": "Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Krakens’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$20B: The named company's closing market capitalization on its first trading day, per the primary exchange's official listing page or reliable alternative source, resolves by January 1, 2027, 5:00 AM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Krakens’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Kraken’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-04T21:00:18.204Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 17915.299482,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 20000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-2735AF1F4F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "kraken",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-70734F4FN1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W60GYW1330",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc99de81c713b6afe83b5d62b1604e8a7368a481d5b6e5e01c1b1ad3b8de74daa",
      "question": "Kraken IPO closing market cap above $22B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Krakens’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$22B: The named company's closing market capitalization on its first trading day, per the primary exchange's official listing page or reliable alternative source, resolves by January 1, 2027, 5:00 AM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Krakens’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Kraken’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 12513.110714,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 22000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-C2EDB00B95",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "kraken",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0ZW7X04B39",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W60GYW1330",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9d48989071ce5b16bac542ed693f589a2fde1950e0a4fc360150f2320059f758",
      "question": "Kraken IPO closing market cap above $24B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Krakens’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$24B: The named company's closing market capitalization on its first trading day, per the primary exchange's official listing page or reliable alternative source, resolves by January 1, 2027, 5:00 AM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Krakens’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Kraken’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 18095.336187999994,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 24000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-6CC836B918",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "kraken",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R0S3HZY3N7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W60GYW1330",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfdf5244f591911983e80dee45767494ab0cad2fe308576df79ddbccf100326da",
      "question": "Kraken IPO closing market cap above $26B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Krakens’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$26B: The named company's closing market capitalization on its first trading day, per the primary exchange's official listing page or reliable alternative source, resolves by January 1, 2027, 5:00 AM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Krakens’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Kraken’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 11941.179098,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 26000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-638FBE7AA3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "kraken",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-68P23P1XX8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W60GYW1330",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfc9a05aab8ee6fa1d99b5329d62c29fab242100554f65b5570fda7d442ee0ff6",
      "question": "Kraken IPO closing market cap above $28B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Krakens’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$28B: The named company's closing market capitalization on its first trading day, per the primary exchange's official listing page or reliable alternative source, resolves by January 1, 2027, 5:00 AM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Krakens’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Kraken’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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