{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-9MQZ98PJT9",
  "slug": "kraken-ipo-in-2025",
  "question": "Will Kraken have an initial public offering by 2026?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "kraken-ipo",
    "crypto-exchange",
    "public-markets",
    "2025-event",
    "us-finance"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Kraken, the cryptocurrency exchange, completes an IPO by four successive deadlines: December 31, 2025; March 31, 2026; June 30, 2026; and December 31, 2026. Each market is a binary outcome priced at a later deadline than the prior, forming an implied probability term structure on Kraken's listing timeline. All four resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The December 31, 2025 market reached its resolve_at timestamp of January 1, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-M82TDJVBH3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.001,
    "implied_probability": 0.001
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2FK1CD5450",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9MQZ98PJT9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5b70123b2c37355840b38bc60752919dae7ca5fe11d5e5184aa69be01b9db458",
      "question": "Kraken IPO in 2025?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kraken (US-based cryptocurrency exchange) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by Kraken to the public on any recognized stock exchange.\n\nIf Kraken merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve early if Kraken completes an IPO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source for this market ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T07:30:39Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kraken (US-based cryptocurrency exchange) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by Kraken to the public on any recognized stock exchange.\n\nIf Kraken merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve early if Kraken completes an IPO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 494516.53254,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-D109BB1475",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cryptocurrency",
        "ipo",
        "kraken"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M82TDJVBH3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9MQZ98PJT9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9b3c3177fe473124c756b01e123b4b03e3a99880844ed8dea21b0a7879ca04aa",
      "question": "Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kraken completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.\n\nIf Kraken is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-04-01T04:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T08:25:09Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kraken completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.\n\nIf Kraken is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 545638.9248109999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-85F6FE7311",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cryptocurrency",
        "ipo",
        "kraken"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FTFNM9G700",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9MQZ98PJT9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xced0cb8725bad43d78fda0cd0e5fa9e31804625cb3502b2c7897f8e8f7fa9e1f",
      "question": "Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kraken completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.\n\nIf Kraken is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kraken completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.\n\nIf Kraken is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.19,
      "implied_probability": 0.19,
      "volume_24h_usd": 32.21,
      "volume_total_usd": 547257.361326002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-054B10E45D",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-5X1JJ5YD46",
          "price": 0.39
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-KD7Q8VGXX2",
          "price": 0.46
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        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-5GQMYW9P06",
          "price": 0.35
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        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-JYPQKQQR35",
          "price": 0.5
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        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-TFKF4MGK35",
          "price": 0.41
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y9S36B0K53",
          "price": 0.46
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      ],
      "tags": [
        "cryptocurrency",
        "ipo",
        "kraken"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NP23B1W9D5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9MQZ98PJT9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "1642124",
      "question": "Kraken IPO by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kraken completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.\n\nIf Kraken is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T04:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T04:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kraken completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.\n\nIf Kraken is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-8CFAC39471",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cryptocurrency",
        "ipo",
        "kraken"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NP23B1W9D5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T04:00:00Z",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T08:25:09Z",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2FK1CD5450",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-01T07:30:39Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-9MQZ98PJT9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}