{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4F4304KNN5",
  "slug": "kxa100ms-26jul",
  "question": "The monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 in July 2026",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      1,
      1.25
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 0.5,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.75,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1.25,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1.5,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1.75,
        "prob": 2
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2,
        "prob": 1
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "nvidia-hardware",
    "cloud-compute-pricing",
    "july-2026",
    "gpu-pricing",
    "market-index"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the monthly average hourly spot price of NVIDIA A100 GPU compute in July 2026. Kalshi structures the event as seven discrete strike thresholds from $0.50 to $2.00, each a binary yes/no at a fixed rate level. Together they imply a cumulative probability distribution over the A100's average hourly price for the month. Kalshi staff resolve each contract using the Ornn dashboard data as the authoritative price source, with settlement finalized by August 8, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-HMPTPVY7Q5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.02,
    "implied_probability": 0.02
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MCFJFWX4D3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4F4304KNN5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXA100MS-26JUL-0.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $0.50 in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above $0.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $0.50: Kalshi staff determination of the named compute provider's monthly average A100 price from Ornn dashboard data, resolved by August 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA A100 compute per hour is above $0.5 in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA A100 compute per hour in July 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1875.8519999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-6A97A90F03",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "a100",
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia a100 average",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NNW3GJC5M5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4F4304KNN5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXA100MS-26JUL-0.750",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $0.75 in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above $0.75",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $0.75: Kalshi staff determination of the named compute provider's monthly average A100 price from Ornn dashboard data, resolved by August 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA A100 compute per hour is above $0.75 in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA A100 compute per hour in July 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2260.6452,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.75,
      "question_id": "CMX-06322EC6DA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "a100",
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia a100 average",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FRP62S90T3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4F4304KNN5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXA100MS-26JUL-1.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $1.00 in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above $1.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $1.00: Kalshi staff determination of the named compute provider's monthly average A100 price from Ornn dashboard data, resolved by August 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA A100 compute per hour is above $1 in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA A100 compute per hour in July 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.0776,
      "volume_total_usd": 2100.6594,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": "CMX-2B12157889",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "a100",
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia a100 average",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HMPTPVY7Q5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4F4304KNN5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXA100MS-26JUL-1.250",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $1.25 in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above $1.25",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $1.25: Kalshi staff determination of the named compute provider's monthly average A100 price from Ornn dashboard data, resolved by August 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA A100 compute per hour is above $1.25 in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA A100 compute per hour in July 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4.9092,
      "volume_total_usd": 225.038,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.25,
      "question_id": "CMX-7CC7D0FB56",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "a100",
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia a100 average",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V3JMRMTSY4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4F4304KNN5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXA100MS-26JUL-1.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $1.50 in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above $1.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $1.50: Kalshi staff determination of the named compute provider's monthly average A100 price from Ornn dashboard data, resolved by August 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA A100 compute per hour is above $1.5 in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA A100 compute per hour in July 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 25.2141,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-ABB8AEEB81",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "a100",
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia a100 average",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SF4R2PM084",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4F4304KNN5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXA100MS-26JUL-1.750",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $1.75 in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above $1.75",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $1.75: Kalshi staff determination of the named compute provider's monthly average A100 price from Ornn dashboard data, resolved by August 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA A100 compute per hour is above $1.75 in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA A100 compute per hour in July 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 84.605,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.75,
      "question_id": "CMX-1ACA73C556",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "a100",
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia a100 average",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K4ZZQFPJX1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4F4304KNN5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXA100MS-26JUL-2.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $2.00 in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above $2.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $2.00: Kalshi staff determination of the named compute provider's monthly average A100 price from Ornn dashboard data, resolved by August 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA A100 compute per hour is above $2 in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA A100 compute per hour in July 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 24.089299999999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": "CMX-96734CAD10",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "a100",
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia a100 average",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-4F4304KNN5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}