{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-YGGVXTFBX7",
  "slug": "kxaaagasd-26aug05",
  "question": "AAA average gas price, August 5, 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4.08,
      4.08
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 4.05,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.05,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.06,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.07,
        "prob": 97
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.07,
        "prob": 88
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.08,
        "prob": 63
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.08,
        "prob": 18
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.08,
        "prob": 5
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.09,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.09,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.1,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.11,
        "prob": 2
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.11,
        "prob": 4
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.12,
        "prob": 4
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.12,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.12,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.13,
        "prob": 1
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-gasoline-prices",
    "energy-commodities",
    "short-term-prediction",
    "daily-forecast",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the AAA national average retail gasoline price as of August 12, 2026, at 2 p.m. ET. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of binary strike thresholds ranging from $4.050 to $4.130 per gallon. The spread of implied probabilities across strikes encodes a market-implied distribution of the price level. Kalshi staff determination resolves each contract against the AAA print at that timestamp.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-P3B4N27XW2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.18,
    "implied_probability": 0.18
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2BDQQM35D7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YGGVXTFBX7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASD-26AUG05-4.050",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.050?",
      "description": "Above 4.050",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.050: AAA's average gas price data as of August 12, 2026, 2 p.m. ET, determines whether the referenced price level is met, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-12T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.050 on Aug 5, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 22346.12,
      "volume_total_usd": 22346.12,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.05,
      "question_id": "CMX-173B5B388E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JCYNXTR2V0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YGGVXTFBX7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASD-26AUG05-4.055",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.055?",
      "description": "Above 4.055",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.055: AAA's average gas price data as of August 12, 2026, 2 p.m. ET, determines whether the referenced price level is met, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-12T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.055 on Aug 5, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 19296.09,
      "volume_total_usd": 19296.09,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.05,
      "question_id": "CMX-028F49086D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NQZTYXN6C1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YGGVXTFBX7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASD-26AUG05-4.060",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.060?",
      "description": "Above 4.060",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.060: AAA's average gas price data as of August 12, 2026, 2 p.m. ET, determines whether the referenced price level is met, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-12T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.060 on Aug 5, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 13234.33,
      "volume_total_usd": 13234.33,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.06,
      "question_id": "CMX-94FF87B4EE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-08375VL4W8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YGGVXTFBX7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASD-26AUG05-4.065",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.065?",
      "description": "Above 4.065",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.065: AAA's average gas price data as of August 12, 2026, 2 p.m. ET, determines whether the referenced price level is met, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-12T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.065 on Aug 5, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "volume_24h_usd": 7306.46,
      "volume_total_usd": 7306.46,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.07,
      "question_id": "CMX-0A00B3F939",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X7B9ZGHRN6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YGGVXTFBX7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASD-26AUG05-4.070",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.070?",
      "description": "Above 4.070",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.070: AAA's average gas price data as of August 12, 2026, 2 p.m. ET, determines whether the referenced price level is met, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-12T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.070 on Aug 5, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.88,
      "implied_probability": 0.88,
      "volume_24h_usd": 8279.16,
      "volume_total_usd": 8282.13,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.07,
      "question_id": "CMX-D3F30723D1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GTVTKX2R44",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YGGVXTFBX7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASD-26AUG05-4.075",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.075?",
      "description": "Above 4.075",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.075: AAA's average gas price data as of August 12, 2026, 2 p.m. ET, determines whether the referenced price level is met, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-12T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.075 on Aug 5, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.63,
      "implied_probability": 0.63,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3966.54,
      "volume_total_usd": 3972.9,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.08,
      "question_id": "CMX-44D0ADC773",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P3B4N27XW2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YGGVXTFBX7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASD-26AUG05-4.080",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.080?",
      "description": "Above 4.080",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.080: AAA's average gas price data as of August 12, 2026, 2 p.m. ET, determines whether the referenced price level is met, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-12T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.080 on Aug 5, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.18,
      "implied_probability": 0.18,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2705.64,
      "volume_total_usd": 2717.91,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.08,
      "question_id": "CMX-340CDC0911",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y72THDP359",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YGGVXTFBX7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASD-26AUG05-4.085",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.085?",
      "description": "Above 4.085",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.085: AAA's average gas price data as of August 12, 2026, 2 p.m. ET, determines whether the referenced price level is met, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-12T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.085 on Aug 5, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 500.66,
      "volume_total_usd": 500.9,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.08,
      "question_id": "CMX-B74F815D7A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HL6RJ4VXW3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YGGVXTFBX7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASD-26AUG05-4.090",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.090?",
      "description": "Above 4.090",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.090: AAA's average gas price data as of August 12, 2026, 2 p.m. ET, determines whether the referenced price level is met, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-12T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.090 on Aug 5, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 125.06,
      "volume_total_usd": 125.06,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.09,
      "question_id": "CMX-CFA96C8F2D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7M0LBKTG33",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YGGVXTFBX7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASD-26AUG05-4.095",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.095?",
      "description": "Above 4.095",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.095: AAA's average gas price data as of August 12, 2026, 2 p.m. ET, determines whether the referenced price level is met, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-12T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.095 on Aug 5, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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