{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-SDHS8JD4J1",
  "slug": "kxaaagasd-26jul24",
  "question": "Average **gas prices**",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4.11,
      4.11
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 4.05,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.05,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.06,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.07,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.07,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.08,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.08,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.08,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.09,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.09,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.1,
        "prob": 87
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.11,
        "prob": 53
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.11,
        "prob": 28
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.12,
        "prob": 9
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.12,
        "prob": 7
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.12,
        "prob": 3
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.13,
        "prob": 1
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-energy-prices",
    "gasoline-market",
    "daily-forecast",
    "commodity-prices",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the AAA national average retail gasoline price on July 31, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of binary strike thresholds from $4.050 to $4.130, each resolved independently by Kalshi staff determination. Together the strikes imply a market-derived probability distribution over the price level. The authoritative data source is AAA's gasprices.aaa.com, not any exchange or government series.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-GQQH2ZHMY8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.28,
    "implied_probability": 0.28
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FT8VBKS0C4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SDHS8JD4J1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASD-26JUL24-4.050",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.050?",
      "description": "Above 4.050",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.050: AAA's national average gas price on July 31, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET, as reported on gasprices.aaa.com, determines resolution by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.050 on Jul 24, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 495,
      "volume_total_usd": 495,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.05,
      "question_id": "CMX-6CE1CAD614",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TBGQZR6561",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SDHS8JD4J1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASD-26JUL24-4.055",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.055?",
      "description": "Above 4.055",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.055: AAA's national average gas price on July 31, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET, as reported on gasprices.aaa.com, determines resolution by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.055 on Jul 24, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 20.79,
      "volume_total_usd": 20.79,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.05,
      "question_id": "CMX-047C54BC28",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CFLXS5QHM5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SDHS8JD4J1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASD-26JUL24-4.060",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.060?",
      "description": "Above 4.060",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.060: AAA's national average gas price on July 31, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET, as reported on gasprices.aaa.com, determines resolution by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.060 on Jul 24, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 20.79,
      "volume_total_usd": 20.79,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.06,
      "question_id": "CMX-9F0C6BE92D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4SFJ95SN27",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SDHS8JD4J1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASD-26JUL24-4.065",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.065?",
      "description": "Above 4.065",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.065: AAA's national average gas price on July 31, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET, as reported on gasprices.aaa.com, determines resolution by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.065 on Jul 24, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.98,
      "volume_total_usd": 1.98,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.07,
      "question_id": "CMX-269865C7B8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NXD1S7ZZ80",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SDHS8JD4J1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASD-26JUL24-4.070",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.070?",
      "description": "Above 4.070",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.070: AAA's national average gas price on July 31, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET, as reported on gasprices.aaa.com, determines resolution by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.070 on Jul 24, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.99,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.99,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.07,
      "question_id": "CMX-2F7C399025",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F3NP76J1L5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SDHS8JD4J1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASD-26JUL24-4.075",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.075?",
      "description": "Above 4.075",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.075: AAA's national average gas price on July 31, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET, as reported on gasprices.aaa.com, determines resolution by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.075 on Jul 24, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.99,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.99,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.08,
      "question_id": "CMX-841DD1A308",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-76T4M7MW26",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SDHS8JD4J1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASD-26JUL24-4.080",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.080?",
      "description": "Above 4.080",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.080: AAA's national average gas price on July 31, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET, as reported on gasprices.aaa.com, determines resolution by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.080 on Jul 24, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.99,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.99,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.08,
      "question_id": "CMX-7252FCED05",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-88VNQ2DN19",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SDHS8JD4J1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASD-26JUL24-4.085",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.085?",
      "description": "Above 4.085",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.085: AAA's national average gas price on July 31, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET, as reported on gasprices.aaa.com, determines resolution by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.085 on Jul 24, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10.78,
      "volume_total_usd": 10.78,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.08,
      "question_id": "CMX-3B8C364CEE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K7CPXJFCB4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SDHS8JD4J1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASD-26JUL24-4.090",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.090?",
      "description": "Above 4.090",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.090: AAA's national average gas price on July 31, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET, as reported on gasprices.aaa.com, determines resolution by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.090 on Jul 24, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 263.91,
      "volume_total_usd": 263.91,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.09,
      "question_id": "CMX-4E75ECBD69",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TDDMLM9HN9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SDHS8JD4J1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASD-26JUL24-4.095",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.095?",
      "description": "Above 4.095",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.095: AAA's national average gas price on July 31, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET, as reported on gasprices.aaa.com, determines resolution by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.095 on Jul 24, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
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