{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3H5LTWXVM6",
  "slug": "kxaaagased-26nov03",
  "question": "AAA national average gas price, November 3, 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      3.5,
      3.75
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 2.5,
        "prob": 94
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.75,
        "prob": 97
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3,
        "prob": 94
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.25,
        "prob": 78
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.5,
        "prob": 53
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.75,
        "prob": 34
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 18
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.25,
        "prob": 16
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.5,
        "prob": 9
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.75,
        "prob": 6
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 5
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-gas-prices",
    "2026-election",
    "energy-commodities",
    "us-economy",
    "november-2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the AAA national average retail gasoline price around the November 2026 U.S. Election Day. Kalshi structures all eleven contracts as discrete strike thresholds, from $2.50 to $5.00, each a binary yes/no at a fixed price level. Together they imply a full implied distribution of the national average price. Kalshi staff determination uses AAA data observed November 10, 2026 at 3 PM ET.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-HP072YHDX9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.47,
    "implied_probability": 0.47,
    "as_of": "2026-08-29T00:01:25.253Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T06Q8WBRJ7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3H5LTWXVM6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-2.50",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $2.50?",
      "description": "Above 2.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.50: AAA national average gas price data on November 10, 2026 at 3 PM ET determines whether the listed metric closes above the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-10T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $2.50 on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
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        "source_of_record": "AAA",
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.94,
      "implied_probability": 0.94,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-05T10:00:55.934Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1185.5937999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-9D044995A2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "energy",
        "gas",
        "us average gas",
        "us-election-2024"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
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          "cluster": "political_language"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-08JCS26YC7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3H5LTWXVM6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-2.75",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $2.75?",
      "description": "Above 2.75",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.75: AAA national average gas price data on November 10, 2026 at 3 PM ET determines whether the listed metric closes above the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-10T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $2.75 on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
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          {
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        "source_of_record": "AAA",
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      "last_price": 0.97,
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      "price_as_of": "2026-08-20T07:01:21.164Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "question_id": "CMX-F0DF8B0EBE",
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KBPQWY2K27",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-3.00",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.00?",
      "description": "Above 3.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.00: AAA national average gas price data on November 10, 2026 at 3 PM ET determines whether the listed metric closes above the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T04:59:00Z",
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      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $3.00 on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
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          {
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        "source_of_record": "AAA",
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      "rcg": {
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      "last_price": 0.96,
      "implied_probability": 0.96,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-25T11:01:09.506Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-E632FE6401",
      "also_on": null,
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        "energy",
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    },
    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3H5LTWXVM6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-3.25",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.25?",
      "description": "Above 3.25",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.25: AAA national average gas price data on November 10, 2026 at 3 PM ET determines whether the listed metric closes above the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-10T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $3.25 on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
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          {
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
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      },
      "last_price": 0.91,
      "implied_probability": 0.91,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-28T06:00:59.261Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 15825.800900000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.25,
      "question_id": "CMX-E33289345D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "energy",
        "gas",
        "us average gas",
        "us-election-2024"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "political_nature_s3"
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          "permitted_category": null,
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          "cluster": "political_language"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BJYWS0BZF9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3H5LTWXVM6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-3.50",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.50?",
      "description": "Above 3.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.50: AAA national average gas price data on November 10, 2026 at 3 PM ET determines whether the listed metric closes above the specified threshold.",
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        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $3.50 on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
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        "source_of_record": "AAA",
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      "last_price": 0.83,
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      "question_id": "CMX-92912DC032",
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HP072YHDX9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3H5LTWXVM6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-3.75",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.75?",
      "description": "Above 3.75",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.75: AAA national average gas price data on November 10, 2026 at 3 PM ET determines whether the listed metric closes above the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-10T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $3.75 on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
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      "question_id": "CMX-E6021305FD",
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    },
    {
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-4.00",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.00?",
      "description": "Above 4.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.00: AAA national average gas price data on November 10, 2026 at 3 PM ET determines whether the listed metric closes above the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-10T15:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $4.00 on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
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          {
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      "last_price": 0.23,
      "implied_probability": 0.23,
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      "question_id": "CMX-749B359339",
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S90V4S42Z3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3H5LTWXVM6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-4.25",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.25?",
      "description": "Above 4.25",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.25: AAA national average gas price data on November 10, 2026 at 3 PM ET determines whether the listed metric closes above the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-10T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $4.25 on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
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      "last_price": 0.17,
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      "price_as_of": "2026-08-28T17:01:33.574Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 29.981200000000005,
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      "threshold": 4.25,
      "question_id": "CMX-0DDD46CC17",
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        "us average gas",
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      ]
    },
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3H5LTWXVM6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-4.50",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.50?",
      "description": "Above 4.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.50: AAA national average gas price data on November 10, 2026 at 3 PM ET determines whether the listed metric closes above the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-10T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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}