{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-0WLSN5GTP4",
  "slug": "kxaaagasm-26aug31",
  "question": "Average **gas prices**",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4.3,
      4.4
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 2.5,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.6,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.7,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.8,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.9,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.1,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.2,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.3,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.4,
        "prob": 96
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.5,
        "prob": 96
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.6,
        "prob": 91
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.7,
        "prob": 89
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.8,
        "prob": 89
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.9,
        "prob": 84
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 86
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.1,
        "prob": 81
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.2,
        "prob": 74
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.3,
        "prob": 50
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.4,
        "prob": 30
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.5,
        "prob": 28
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-gasoline-prices",
    "energy-economics",
    "commodity-markets",
    "august-2026",
    "inflation-indicator"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the AAA national average retail gasoline price as of September 30, 2026. Kalshi structures all 21 contracts as discrete strike thresholds, each pricing the probability that the price level exceeds a given bound. Together, the strikes form an implied distribution of the September 30 price. Kalshi staff determination resolves each contract against the AAA figure on that date.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-8K3MKQJZM1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.2,
    "implied_probability": 0.2
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G6MX3RHDV6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0WLSN5GTP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASM-26AUG31-2.50",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $2.50?",
      "description": "Above 2.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.50: AAA's national average gas price as of September 30, 2026 determines resolution; Kalshi staff will verify the reported value against the stated threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $2.50 on Aug 31, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2631.4299,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-E50E8A0109",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "us average gasoline"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NXMTF1GM98",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0WLSN5GTP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASM-26AUG31-2.60",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $2.60?",
      "description": "Above 2.60",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.60: AAA's national average gas price as of September 30, 2026 determines resolution; Kalshi staff will verify the reported value against the stated threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $2.60 on Aug 31, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 572.1142,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-0794B1DDB9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "us average gasoline"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XWF8LWBKQ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0WLSN5GTP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASM-26AUG31-2.70",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $2.70?",
      "description": "Above 2.70",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.70: AAA's national average gas price as of September 30, 2026 determines resolution; Kalshi staff will verify the reported value against the stated threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $2.70 on Aug 31, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 484.8942,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.7,
      "question_id": "CMX-2370AA673E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "us average gasoline"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PHLLL43670",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0WLSN5GTP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASM-26AUG31-2.80",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $2.80?",
      "description": "Above 2.80",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.80: AAA's national average gas price as of September 30, 2026 determines resolution; Kalshi staff will verify the reported value against the stated threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $2.80 on Aug 31, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 936.6741999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.8,
      "question_id": "CMX-DA5C0E1062",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "us average gasoline"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KH220MMM81",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0WLSN5GTP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASM-26AUG31-2.90",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $2.90?",
      "description": "Above 2.90",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.90: AAA's national average gas price as of September 30, 2026 determines resolution; Kalshi staff will verify the reported value against the stated threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $2.90 on Aug 31, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1251.36,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.9,
      "question_id": "CMX-F9C171CEEE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "us average gasoline"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V51RMX6020",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0WLSN5GTP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASM-26AUG31-3.00",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.00?",
      "description": "Above 3.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.00: AAA's national average gas price as of September 30, 2026 determines resolution; Kalshi staff will verify the reported value against the stated threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.00 on Aug 31, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2156.2596,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-C8168AC3C0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "us average gasoline"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8W909TTRN6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0WLSN5GTP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASM-26AUG31-3.10",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.10?",
      "description": "Above 3.10",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.10: AAA's national average gas price as of September 30, 2026 determines resolution; Kalshi staff will verify the reported value against the stated threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.10 on Aug 31, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2151.2799,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-A658E2A74A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "us average gasoline"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0ZM6HHNMY3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0WLSN5GTP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASM-26AUG31-3.20",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.20?",
      "description": "Above 3.20",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.20: AAA's national average gas price as of September 30, 2026 determines resolution; Kalshi staff will verify the reported value against the stated threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.20 on Aug 31, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1132.56,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-83ED02C75F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "us average gasoline"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GVRQ8PZWF4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0WLSN5GTP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASM-26AUG31-3.30",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.30?",
      "description": "Above 3.30",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.30: AAA's national average gas price as of September 30, 2026 determines resolution; Kalshi staff will verify the reported value against the stated threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.30 on Aug 31, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2759.1498,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-A3AB21752F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "us average gasoline"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L3WQYKL622",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0WLSN5GTP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASM-26AUG31-3.40",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.40?",
      "description": "Above 3.40",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.40: AAA's national average gas price as of September 30, 2026 determines resolution; Kalshi staff will verify the reported value against the stated threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.40 on Aug 31, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "volume_24h_usd": 340.46999999999997,
      "volume_total_usd": 4753.9797,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.4,
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}