{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6046BB5W1",
  "slug": "kxaaagasmax-26dec31",
  "question": "National average gas price, December 31, 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4.4,
      4.6
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.2,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.4,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.6,
        "prob": 42
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.8,
        "prob": 31
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 27
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.2,
        "prob": 19
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.4,
        "prob": 17
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.6,
        "prob": 16
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.8,
        "prob": 11
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6,
        "prob": 12
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6.2,
        "prob": 13
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6.4,
        "prob": 8
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6.6,
        "prob": 8
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6.8,
        "prob": 7
      },
      {
        "threshold": 7,
        "prob": 6
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-gas-prices",
    "energy-commodities",
    "inflation-macroeconomics",
    "2026",
    "price-threshold"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether AAA's national average retail gasoline price exceeds discrete strike thresholds at year-end 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of binary strikes from $4.60 to $7.00, each pricing tail-risk probability independently. Together they imply a market-derived distribution of the national average price level. Kalshi staff determination uses AAA's reported figure on January 7, 2027 as the authoritative settlement reference.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-B38H7R4BB0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.4,
    "implied_probability": 0.4,
    "as_of": "2026-10-21T12:46:14.115Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B38H7R4BB0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6046BB5W1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-4.60",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Above $4.60",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.60: AAA's national average gas price on January 7, 2027 determines whether the listed metric closed above or at the specified threshold on December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T06:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $4.60 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.4,
      "implied_probability": 0.4,
      "price_as_of": "2026-10-21T12:46:14.115Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 2130.2599999999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 122228.968,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-7F449F0EF9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
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      "last_checked_at": "2026-10-21T12:46:14.115Z",
      "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T06:01:08.931Z"
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9FT06FVF61",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6046BB5W1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-4.80",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Above $4.80",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.80: AAA's national average gas price on January 7, 2027 determines whether the listed metric closed above or at the specified threshold on December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T06:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $4.80 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
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          {
            "name": "AAA",
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        "source_of_record": "AAA",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
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      "last_price": 0.32,
      "implied_probability": 0.32,
      "price_as_of": "2026-10-21T12:46:14.115Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 48.368,
      "volume_total_usd": 73559.2384,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.8,
      "question_id": "CMX-02EEDD1DE7",
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        "fuel",
        "us gas"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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      ],
      "last_checked_at": "2026-10-21T12:46:14.115Z",
      "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T06:01:08.931Z"
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7HS45133Z2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6046BB5W1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-5.00",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Above $5.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.00: AAA's national average gas price on January 7, 2027 determines whether the listed metric closed above or at the specified threshold on December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T06:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $5.00 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
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      },
      "last_price": 0.23,
      "implied_probability": 0.23,
      "price_as_of": "2026-10-21T00:45:29.831Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 230.8648,
      "volume_total_usd": 51090.3301,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": "CMX-9A198402DF",
      "also_on": null,
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        "commodities",
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        "fuel",
        "us gas"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
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      ],
      "last_checked_at": "2026-10-21T12:46:14.115Z",
      "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T06:01:08.931Z"
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P919SCMXZ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6046BB5W1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-5.20",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Above $5.20",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.20: AAA's national average gas price on January 7, 2027 determines whether the listed metric closed above or at the specified threshold on December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T06:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $5.20 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.15,
      "implied_probability": 0.15,
      "price_as_of": "2026-10-21T05:45:30.550Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 24.666,
      "volume_total_usd": 21209.2695,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-8AA4249AF3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
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      ],
      "last_checked_at": "2026-10-21T12:46:14.115Z",
      "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T06:01:08.931Z"
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J6BVBLKPS8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6046BB5W1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-5.40",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Above $5.40",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.40: AAA's national average gas price on January 7, 2027 determines whether the listed metric closed above or at the specified threshold on December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T06:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $5.40 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "price_as_of": "2026-10-21T08:46:09.017Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 29.1616,
      "volume_total_usd": 15097.576000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-4F7A412656",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
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          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
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      ],
      "last_checked_at": "2026-10-21T12:46:14.115Z",
      "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T06:01:08.931Z"
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LCP1BXNRM1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6046BB5W1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-5.60",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $5.60 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Above $5.60",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.60: AAA's national average gas price on January 7, 2027 determines whether the listed metric closed above or at the specified threshold on December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T06:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $5.60 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "price_as_of": "2026-10-21T07:46:06.860Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 14.5566,
      "volume_total_usd": 11126.5839,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-367B47419E",
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        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RG3334W850",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6046BB5W1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-5.80",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $5.80 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Above $5.80",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.80: AAA's national average gas price on January 7, 2027 determines whether the listed metric closed above or at the specified threshold on December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T06:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $5.80 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "price_as_of": "2026-10-20T17:45:35.652Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.707,
      "volume_total_usd": 10822.746000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5.8,
      "question_id": "CMX-AAE8489742",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
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      "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T06:01:08.931Z"
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H6B1F5ZNP1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6046BB5W1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-6.00",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Above $6.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $6.00: AAA's national average gas price on January 7, 2027 determines whether the listed metric closed above or at the specified threshold on December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T06:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $6.00 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "price_as_of": "2026-10-20T18:45:34.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 18,
      "volume_total_usd": 13362.7581,
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