{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6046BB5W1",
  "slug": "kxaaagasmax-26dec31",
  "question": "National average gas price, December 31, 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4.6,
      4.8
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.2,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.4,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.6,
        "prob": 51
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.8,
        "prob": 35
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 33
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.2,
        "prob": 21
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.4,
        "prob": 15
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.6,
        "prob": 16
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.8,
        "prob": 11
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6,
        "prob": 10
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6.2,
        "prob": 7
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6.4,
        "prob": 4
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6.6,
        "prob": 5
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6.8,
        "prob": 7
      },
      {
        "threshold": 7,
        "prob": 4
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-gas-prices",
    "energy-commodities",
    "inflation-impact",
    "2026",
    "price-prediction"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the U.S. national average retail gasoline price at year-end 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of discrete strike thresholds, from $4.20 to $7.00, each resolving as a binary. The strikes together imply a market-derived probability distribution over the price level. AAA's national average, read on January 7, 2027, is the authoritative data source; Kalshi staff determination governs resolution.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-9FT06FVF61",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.37,
    "implied_probability": 0.37
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BP9KKXH1Y7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6046BB5W1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-4.20",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Above $4.20",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.20: AAA's national average gas price on January 7, 2027 determines whether the listed metric closed above or at the specified threshold on December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-30T14:56:29Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $4.20 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 6463.61,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-3DBCEFFBFB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas",
        "us-macro"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NZCBRZ6ND2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6046BB5W1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-4.40",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.40 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Above $4.40",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.40: AAA's national average gas price on January 7, 2027 determines whether the listed metric closed above or at the specified threshold on December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-04T14:04:55Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $4.40 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
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          {
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        "source_of_record": "AAA",
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      "rcg": {
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      "last_price": 0.99,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-AE888D0614",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "energy",
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        "us-macro"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B38H7R4BB0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6046BB5W1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-4.60",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Above $4.60",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.60: AAA's national average gas price on January 7, 2027 determines whether the listed metric closed above or at the specified threshold on December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T06:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $4.60 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
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          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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      },
      "rcg": {
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      "last_price": 0.51,
      "implied_probability": 0.51,
      "volume_24h_usd": 132.906,
      "volume_total_usd": 58913.4864,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-7F449F0EF9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "energy",
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        "us gas",
        "us-macro"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9FT06FVF61",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6046BB5W1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-4.80",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Above $4.80",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.80: AAA's national average gas price on January 7, 2027 determines whether the listed metric closed above or at the specified threshold on December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T06:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $4.80 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.37,
      "implied_probability": 0.37,
      "volume_24h_usd": 119.1289,
      "volume_total_usd": 52831.2344,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.8,
      "question_id": "CMX-02EEDD1DE7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas",
        "us-macro"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7HS45133Z2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6046BB5W1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-5.00",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Above $5.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.00: AAA's national average gas price on January 7, 2027 determines whether the listed metric closed above or at the specified threshold on December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T06:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $5.00 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
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          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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      "rcg": {
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      "last_price": 0.25,
      "implied_probability": 0.25,
      "volume_24h_usd": 105.99,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": "CMX-9A198402DF",
      "also_on": null,
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "eligible",
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          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
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        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P919SCMXZ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6046BB5W1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-5.20",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Above $5.20",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.20: AAA's national average gas price on January 7, 2027 determines whether the listed metric closed above or at the specified threshold on December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T06:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $5.20 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
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      "last_price": 0.22,
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      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-8AA4249AF3",
      "also_on": null,
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        "fuel",
        "us gas",
        "us-macro"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "eligible",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J6BVBLKPS8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6046BB5W1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-5.40",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Above $5.40",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.40: AAA's national average gas price on January 7, 2027 determines whether the listed metric closed above or at the specified threshold on December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T06:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $5.40 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
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        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "AAA",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
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      },
      "last_price": 0.19,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 33.4058,
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      "direction": "above",
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      "question_id": "CMX-4F7A412656",
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        "us-macro"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
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          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LCP1BXNRM1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6046BB5W1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-5.60",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $5.60 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Above $5.60",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.60: AAA's national average gas price on January 7, 2027 determines whether the listed metric closed above or at the specified threshold on December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T06:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $5.60 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
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            "name": "AAA",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
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      "last_price": 0.15,
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      "question_id": "CMX-367B47419E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas",
        "us-macro"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RG3334W850",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6046BB5W1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-5.80",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $5.80 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Above $5.80",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.80: AAA's national average gas price on January 7, 2027 determines whether the listed metric closed above or at the specified threshold on December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T06:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T06:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $5.80 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
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