{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VTJ7BWDPB4",
  "slug": "kxaaagasminca-26dec31",
  "question": "Will gas prices in California reach a new low this year?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "gas-prices",
    "california",
    "commodity-prices",
    "2026",
    "energy-markets"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track AAA's national average retail gasoline price as of December 31, 2026. Kalshi structures the event as four discrete strike thresholds: $3.80, $3.90, $4.00, and $4.10. Each binary resolves via Kalshi staff determination against the AAA published figure on that date. Together the strikes form an implied probability distribution over the year-end price level.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-SVY7JCFRD1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.21,
    "implied_probability": 0.21
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SVY7JCFRD1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VTJ7BWDPB4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASMINCA-26DEC31-4.10",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.10 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Below $4.10",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below $4.10: AAA's national average gas price as of December 31, 2026, published on their official website, determines the outcome by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T14:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for California are strictly lower than $4.10 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA,  the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.21,
      "implied_probability": 0.21,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.1,
      "volume_total_usd": 3935.35,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-FB3EE67BDE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "california",
        "california average gas",
        "energy",
        "gas",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-84838LTL79",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VTJ7BWDPB4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASMINCA-26DEC31-4.00",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.00 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Below $4.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below $4.00: AAA's national average gas price as of December 31, 2026, published on their official website, determines the outcome by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T14:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for California are strictly lower than $4.00 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA,  the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.14,
      "implied_probability": 0.14,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1381.85,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-29623A5B47",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "california",
        "california average gas",
        "energy",
        "gas",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8KK4X9GHB2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VTJ7BWDPB4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASMINCA-26DEC31-3.90",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above or below $3.90 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Below $3.90",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below $3.90: AAA's national average gas price as of December 31, 2026, published on their official website, determines the outcome by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T14:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for California are strictly lower than $3.90 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA,  the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.21,
      "implied_probability": 0.21,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 972.52,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-1748BD59BE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "california",
        "california average gas",
        "energy",
        "gas",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-521XDNLLG8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VTJ7BWDPB4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASMINCA-26DEC31-3.80",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above or below $3.80 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Below $3.80",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below $3.80: AAA's national average gas price as of December 31, 2026, published on their official website, determines the outcome by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T14:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for California are strictly lower than $3.80 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA,  the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 222.63,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-1EAA276DEE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "california",
        "california average gas",
        "energy",
        "gas",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-VTJ7BWDPB4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}