{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FCL1JMT0V9",
  "slug": "kxaaagasw-26aug10",
  "question": "AAA national average gas price, August 17, 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4,
      4
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 3.86,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.88,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.9,
        "prob": 96
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.92,
        "prob": 92
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.94,
        "prob": 92
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.96,
        "prob": 90
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.98,
        "prob": 85
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 61
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 46
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.04,
        "prob": 27
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.06,
        "prob": 20
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.08,
        "prob": 13
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.1,
        "prob": 6
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.12,
        "prob": 3
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.14,
        "prob": 2
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.16,
        "prob": 2
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.18,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.2,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.22,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.24,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.26,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.28,
        "prob": 1
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "us-gas-prices",
    "energy-commodities",
    "weekly-resolution",
    "economics",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track AAA's national average retail gasoline price on August 17, 2026. Kalshi structures all contracts as discrete strike thresholds, spanning $3.860 to above $4.240 per gallon. The implied price distribution emerges from the cumulative probability across strikes. Kalshi staff determination uses AAA's 2 p.m. ET reading as the sole authoritative data point.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-5DND9ZLPL5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.46,
    "implied_probability": 0.46
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FC16L2B0N1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FCL1JMT0V9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26AUG10-3.860",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.860?",
      "description": "Above 3.860",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.860: AAA's national average gas price on August 17, 2026, as reported at 2 p.m. ET, determines the outcome; Kalshi staff certify the result.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-10T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.860 on Aug 10, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 11649.55,
      "volume_total_usd": 11704,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.86,
      "question_id": "CMX-F8514333F5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodity",
        "energy",
        "us gas",
        "weekly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NYMWBF08J2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FCL1JMT0V9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26AUG10-3.880",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.880?",
      "description": "Above 3.880",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.880: AAA's national average gas price on August 17, 2026, as reported at 2 p.m. ET, determines the outcome; Kalshi staff certify the result.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-10T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.880 on Aug 10, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5937.37,
      "volume_total_usd": 5986.37,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.88,
      "question_id": "CMX-956E9B2135",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodity",
        "energy",
        "us gas",
        "weekly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W5B9V5X8R1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FCL1JMT0V9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26AUG10-3.900",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.900?",
      "description": "Above 3.900",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.900: AAA's national average gas price on August 17, 2026, as reported at 2 p.m. ET, determines the outcome; Kalshi staff certify the result.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-10T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.900 on Aug 10, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.96,
      "implied_probability": 0.96,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1698.82,
      "volume_total_usd": 1746.82,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.9,
      "question_id": "CMX-954F9EBC39",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodity",
        "energy",
        "us gas",
        "weekly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GGH5DMZ7C7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FCL1JMT0V9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26AUG10-3.920",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.920?",
      "description": "Above 3.920",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.920: AAA's national average gas price on August 17, 2026, as reported at 2 p.m. ET, determines the outcome; Kalshi staff certify the result.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-10T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.920 on Aug 10, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.92,
      "implied_probability": 0.92,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2044.41,
      "volume_total_usd": 2094.09,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.92,
      "question_id": "CMX-8DE1D8565A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodity",
        "energy",
        "us gas",
        "weekly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GBDTS9GQF3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FCL1JMT0V9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26AUG10-3.940",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.940?",
      "description": "Above 3.940",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.940: AAA's national average gas price on August 17, 2026, as reported at 2 p.m. ET, determines the outcome; Kalshi staff certify the result.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-10T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.940 on Aug 10, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.92,
      "implied_probability": 0.92,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2204.54,
      "volume_total_usd": 4275.23,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.94,
      "question_id": "CMX-4140998165",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodity",
        "energy",
        "us gas",
        "weekly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BQ5BCHYM78",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FCL1JMT0V9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26AUG10-3.960",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.960?",
      "description": "Above 3.960",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.960: AAA's national average gas price on August 17, 2026, as reported at 2 p.m. ET, determines the outcome; Kalshi staff certify the result.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-10T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.960 on Aug 10, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.9,
      "implied_probability": 0.9,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3086.69,
      "volume_total_usd": 3819.13,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.96,
      "question_id": "CMX-8BF917ABCF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodity",
        "energy",
        "us gas",
        "weekly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0JCZW92WJ8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FCL1JMT0V9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26AUG10-3.980",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.980?",
      "description": "Above 3.980",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.980: AAA's national average gas price on August 17, 2026, as reported at 2 p.m. ET, determines the outcome; Kalshi staff certify the result.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-10T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.980 on Aug 10, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.85,
      "implied_probability": 0.85,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1968.78,
      "volume_total_usd": 2181.4,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.98,
      "question_id": "CMX-2AFA247DE9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodity",
        "energy",
        "us gas",
        "weekly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XLM2R3RWB3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FCL1JMT0V9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26AUG10-4.000",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.000?",
      "description": "Above 4.000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.000: AAA's national average gas price on August 17, 2026, as reported at 2 p.m. ET, determines the outcome; Kalshi staff certify the result.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-10T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.000 on Aug 10, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.61,
      "implied_probability": 0.61,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4678.46,
      "volume_total_usd": 5114.33,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-910F9302AA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodity",
        "energy",
        "us gas",
        "weekly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5DND9ZLPL5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FCL1JMT0V9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26AUG10-4.020",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.020?",
      "description": "Above 4.020",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.020: AAA's national average gas price on August 17, 2026, as reported at 2 p.m. ET, determines the outcome; Kalshi staff certify the result.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-10T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.020 on Aug 10, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.46,
      "implied_probability": 0.46,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2981.2,
      "volume_total_usd": 3177.09,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-ADC6F994B7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodity",
        "energy",
        "us gas",
        "weekly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4M7R8VGT17",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FCL1JMT0V9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26AUG10-4.040",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.040?",
      "description": "Above 4.040",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.040: AAA's national average gas price on August 17, 2026, as reported at 2 p.m. ET, determines the outcome; Kalshi staff certify the result.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-10T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.040 on Aug 10, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "AAA",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.25,
      "volume_total_usd": 10.63,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.26,
      "question_id": "CMX-F074B7E0F6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodity",
        "energy",
        "us gas",
        "weekly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9XMDKPQMR0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FCL1JMT0V9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26AUG10-4.280",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.280?",
      "description": "Above 4.280",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.280: AAA's national average gas price on August 17, 2026, as reported at 2 p.m. ET, determines the outcome; Kalshi staff certify the result.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-10T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.280 on Aug 10, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.99,
      "volume_total_usd": 21.48,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.28,
      "question_id": "CMX-78A98739F6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodity",
        "energy",
        "us gas",
        "weekly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-FCL1JMT0V9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}