{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-7BTG22H1X4",
  "slug": "kxaaagasw-26jul27",
  "question": "Average **gas prices**",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4.15,
      4.16
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 3.96,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.98,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.04,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.06,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.08,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.1,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.11,
        "prob": 95
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.12,
        "prob": 88
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.13,
        "prob": 78
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.14,
        "prob": 54
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.15,
        "prob": 58
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.16,
        "prob": 32
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.18,
        "prob": 9
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.2,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.22,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.24,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.26,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.28,
        "prob": 2
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.3,
        "prob": 3
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "gas-prices",
    "us-economy",
    "weekly-resolution",
    "energy-commodities",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the AAA national average retail gasoline price on August 3, 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of binary strike thresholds, from $3.960 to above $4.280, allowing traders to express a view on the precise price level. The implied distribution across strikes lets a desk read the market's consensus price point. Kalshi staff determination against the AAA print at 2:00 p.m. ET on August 3, 2026 governs resolution.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-VRY37SX4L2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.01,
    "implied_probability": 0.01
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2J9TX0JN06",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7BTG22H1X4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUL27-3.960",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.960?",
      "description": "Above 3.960",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.960: AAA national average gas price on August 3, 2026 at 2:00 p.m. ET determines the outcome; Kalshi staff compares it to the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-03T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.960 on Jul 27, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "AAA",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.99,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 2778.435,
      "volume_total_usd": 7354.898099999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.96,
      "question_id": "CMX-AFB49548FB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
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        "us gas"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-00G7011ZQ5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7BTG22H1X4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUL27-3.980",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.980?",
      "description": "Above 3.980",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.980: AAA national average gas price on August 3, 2026 at 2:00 p.m. ET determines the outcome; Kalshi staff compares it to the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-03T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.980 on Jul 27, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
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        "source_of_record": "AAA",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
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      "last_price": 0.99,
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      "threshold": 3.98,
      "question_id": "CMX-E75DFB0392",
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        "commodities",
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        "us gas"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J3V9H7NKQ5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7BTG22H1X4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUL27-4.000",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.000?",
      "description": "Above 4.000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.000: AAA national average gas price on August 3, 2026 at 2:00 p.m. ET determines the outcome; Kalshi staff compares it to the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-03T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.000 on Jul 27, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
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          {
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        "source_of_record": "AAA",
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      "rcg": {
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      "last_price": 0.99,
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      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-7FDF40F100",
      "also_on": null,
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        "commodities",
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        "us gas"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QZZZGHYHT0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7BTG22H1X4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUL27-4.020",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.020?",
      "description": "Above 4.020",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.020: AAA national average gas price on August 3, 2026 at 2:00 p.m. ET determines the outcome; Kalshi staff compares it to the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-03T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.020 on Jul 27, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
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          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1204.4934,
      "volume_total_usd": 10664.002799999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-2998D877F9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-62JJ6YBP62",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7BTG22H1X4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUL27-4.040",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.040?",
      "description": "Above 4.040",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.040: AAA national average gas price on August 3, 2026 at 2:00 p.m. ET determines the outcome; Kalshi staff compares it to the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-03T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.040 on Jul 27, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.04,
      "question_id": "CMX-343ABD6AB9",
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      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-80WPK6T8L0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7BTG22H1X4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUL27-4.060",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.060?",
      "description": "Above 4.060",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.060: AAA national average gas price on August 3, 2026 at 2:00 p.m. ET determines the outcome; Kalshi staff compares it to the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-03T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.060 on Jul 27, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.99,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.06,
      "question_id": "CMX-43E3E2492A",
      "also_on": null,
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        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SSQVT1K391",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7BTG22H1X4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUL27-4.080",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.080?",
      "description": "Above 4.080",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.080: AAA national average gas price on August 3, 2026 at 2:00 p.m. ET determines the outcome; Kalshi staff compares it to the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-03T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.080 on Jul 27, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.08,
      "question_id": "CMX-C5495D7C8B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J2TK6Z4HX3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7BTG22H1X4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUL27-4.100",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.100?",
      "description": "Above 4.100",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.100: AAA national average gas price on August 3, 2026 at 2:00 p.m. ET determines the outcome; Kalshi staff compares it to the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-03T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.100 on Jul 27, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
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      "volume_total_usd": 56572.89659999999,
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      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-4377F88F63",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-75X72DVKB4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7BTG22H1X4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUL27-4.110",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.110?",
      "description": "Above 4.110",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.110: AAA national average gas price on August 3, 2026 at 2:00 p.m. ET determines the outcome; Kalshi staff compares it to the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-03T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.110 on Jul 27, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.39,
      "implied_probability": 0.39,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5977.5806999999995,
      "volume_total_usd": 19335.7671,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.11,
      "question_id": "CMX-6A29A8E3C1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "fuel",
        "us gas"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QP050BJH54",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7BTG22H1X4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUL27-4.120",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.120?",
      "description": "Above 4.120",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.120: AAA national average gas price on August 3, 2026 at 2:00 p.m. ET determines the outcome; Kalshi staff compares it to the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-03T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.120 on Jul 27, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "AAA",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-7BTG22H1X4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}