{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4J85XQV4X1",
  "slug": "kxaaagasw-26jun08",
  "question": "National average gas prices, June 8, 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4.16,
      4.18
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 4.12,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.14,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.16,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.18,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.2,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.22,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.24,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.26,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.28,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.3,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.32,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.34,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.36,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.38,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.4,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.42,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.44,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.46,
        "prob": 0
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "gasoline-prices",
    "us-energy",
    "weekly-resolution",
    "commodity-markets",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the AAA national average retail gasoline price as of June 8, 2026. Kalshi structures exposure as a strike ladder, pricing the probability that the national average exceeds each of 18 thresholds from $4.120 to $4.460. The spread of implied probabilities across strikes functions as a synthetic distribution of the expected price level. Resolution is by Kalshi staff determination using the AAA-published figure on June 8, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-C37D1HG542",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N29R0T5SJ4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4J85XQV4X1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUN08-4.120",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.120?",
      "description": "Above 4.120",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "AAA publishes the national average gas price as of market resolution on June 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-08T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-08T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.120 on Jun 8, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 90.1,
      "volume_total_usd": 90.1,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.12,
      "question_id": "CMX-F4DC7477BB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "us gas",
        "weekly"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B4HX7KG106",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4J85XQV4X1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUN08-4.140",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.140?",
      "description": "Above 4.140",
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      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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      "close_at": "2026-06-08T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-08T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.140 on Jun 8, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1146.2,
      "volume_total_usd": 1913.48,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.14,
      "question_id": "CMX-3AD74133B6",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z7B9SBHM93",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4J85XQV4X1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUN08-4.160",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.160?",
      "description": "Above 4.160",
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      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "AAA publishes the national average gas price as of market resolution on June 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-08T03:59:00Z",
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      "status": "resolved",
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        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.160 on Jun 8, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
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        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 519.54,
      "volume_total_usd": 872,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.16,
      "question_id": "CMX-15D7C1D321",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C37D1HG542",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4J85XQV4X1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUN08-4.180",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.180?",
      "description": "Above 4.180",
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      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "AAA publishes the national average gas price as of market resolution on June 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-08T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-08T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.180 on Jun 8, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": null,
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        "source_mechanism": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 569.2,
      "volume_total_usd": 2435.63,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.18,
      "question_id": "CMX-4DD52352B8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "us gas",
        "weekly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1BM2FQ7ZC5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4J85XQV4X1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUN08-4.200",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.200?",
      "description": "Above 4.200",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "AAA publishes the national average gas price as of market resolution on June 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-08T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-08T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.200 on Jun 8, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": null,
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        "source_mechanism": null,
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2013.22,
      "volume_total_usd": 3306.37,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-DFA251A686",
      "also_on": null,
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        "energy",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JSD5ZGPBC3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4J85XQV4X1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUN08-4.220",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.220?",
      "description": "Above 4.220",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "AAA publishes the national average gas price as of market resolution on June 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-08T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-08T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.220 on Jun 8, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
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        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1228.69,
      "volume_total_usd": 1817.72,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.22,
      "question_id": "CMX-C433499C60",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "us gas",
        "weekly"
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          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2MT0CS1YW8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4J85XQV4X1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUN08-4.240",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.240?",
      "description": "Above 4.240",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "AAA publishes the national average gas price as of market resolution on June 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-08T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-08T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
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        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.240 on Jun 8, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
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        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 614.59,
      "volume_total_usd": 781.79,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.24,
      "question_id": "CMX-B28E6DDAEE",
      "also_on": null,
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WZQKS24B39",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4J85XQV4X1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUN08-4.260",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.260?",
      "description": "Above 4.260",
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      "underlying_reference": "AAA publishes the national average gas price as of market resolution on June 8, 2026.",
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        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.260 on Jun 8, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
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        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
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      "last_price": 0,
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      "volume_total_usd": 844.65,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.26,
      "question_id": "CMX-1BA1F94ED5",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G10Q138YQ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4J85XQV4X1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUN08-4.280",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.280?",
      "description": "Above 4.280",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "AAA publishes the national average gas price as of market resolution on June 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-08T03:59:00Z",
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      "status": "resolved",
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        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.280 on Jun 8, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
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      "volume_24h_usd": 1216.07,
      "volume_total_usd": 1346.33,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.28,
      "question_id": "CMX-3200B3844B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "us gas",
        "weekly"
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BMRC0BJMS2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4J85XQV4X1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUN08-4.300",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.300?",
      "description": "Above 4.300",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "AAA publishes the national average gas price as of market resolution on June 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-08T03:59:00Z",
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      "status": "resolved",
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        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.300 on Jun 8, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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