{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-0H91TR22P8",
  "slug": "kxaaagasw-26jun15",
  "question": "National average gas price, June 15, 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4.06,
      4.07
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 3.86,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.88,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.9,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.92,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.94,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.96,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.98,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.04,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.05,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.06,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.07,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.08,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.09,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.1,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.11,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.12,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.14,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.16,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.18,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.2,
        "prob": 0
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-gas-prices",
    "energy-commodities",
    "weekly-markets",
    "inflation-indicator",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the AAA national average retail gasoline price on June 22, 2026, at 2 p.m. ET. All 22 Kalshi contracts are structured as discrete strike thresholds, each pricing the probability that the spot price exceeds a specific level. The strike ladder runs from $3.860 to above $4.160, allowing traders to construct an implied price distribution across that range. Resolution is by Kalshi staff determination using the AAA published figure at the specified timestamp.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-01389TT2F6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TTKSCB5FH5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0H91TR22P8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUN15-3.860",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.860?",
      "description": "Above 3.860",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.860: The American Automobile Association's national average gas price on June 22, 2026, at 2 p.m. ET determines the outcome, with Kalshi staff verifying the data.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-15T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-15T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.860 on Jun 15, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 329.33,
      "volume_total_usd": 838.22,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.86,
      "question_id": "CMX-936ED45A81",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "us average gas",
        "us-economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CCSBGV04S4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0H91TR22P8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUN15-3.880",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.880?",
      "description": "Above 3.880",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.880: The American Automobile Association's national average gas price on June 22, 2026, at 2 p.m. ET determines the outcome, with Kalshi staff verifying the data.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-15T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-15T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.880 on Jun 15, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 162.36,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.88,
      "question_id": "CMX-CDBA410DF0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "us average gas",
        "us-economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L362SKFH86",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0H91TR22P8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUN15-3.900",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.900?",
      "description": "Above 3.900",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.900: The American Automobile Association's national average gas price on June 22, 2026, at 2 p.m. ET determines the outcome, with Kalshi staff verifying the data.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-15T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-15T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.900 on Jun 15, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 555.49,
      "volume_total_usd": 1302.26,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.9,
      "question_id": "CMX-CE95FAE290",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "us average gas",
        "us-economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TCH539M8Q7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0H91TR22P8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUN15-3.920",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.920?",
      "description": "Above 3.920",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.920: The American Automobile Association's national average gas price on June 22, 2026, at 2 p.m. ET determines the outcome, with Kalshi staff verifying the data.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-15T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-15T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.920 on Jun 15, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 237.1,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.92,
      "question_id": "CMX-658EA577D0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "us average gas",
        "us-economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PLXV44XVM4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0H91TR22P8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUN15-3.940",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.940?",
      "description": "Above 3.940",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.940: The American Automobile Association's national average gas price on June 22, 2026, at 2 p.m. ET determines the outcome, with Kalshi staff verifying the data.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-15T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-15T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.940 on Jun 15, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 8093.44,
      "volume_total_usd": 6225.45,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.94,
      "question_id": "CMX-BFAF5590A6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "us average gas",
        "us-economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LW3LG7D9B8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0H91TR22P8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUN15-3.960",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.960?",
      "description": "Above 3.960",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.960: The American Automobile Association's national average gas price on June 22, 2026, at 2 p.m. ET determines the outcome, with Kalshi staff verifying the data.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-15T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-15T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.960 on Jun 15, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 12.13,
      "volume_total_usd": 1405.44,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.96,
      "question_id": "CMX-1900B0DE31",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "us average gas",
        "us-economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XFSK3SQZV7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0H91TR22P8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUN15-3.980",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.980?",
      "description": "Above 3.980",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.980: The American Automobile Association's national average gas price on June 22, 2026, at 2 p.m. ET determines the outcome, with Kalshi staff verifying the data.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-15T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-15T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.980 on Jun 15, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1788.06,
      "volume_total_usd": 3024.24,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.98,
      "question_id": "CMX-9617744F1D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "us average gas",
        "us-economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8Q247SW6N0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0H91TR22P8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUN15-4.000",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.000?",
      "description": "Above 4.000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.000: The American Automobile Association's national average gas price on June 22, 2026, at 2 p.m. ET determines the outcome, with Kalshi staff verifying the data.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-15T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-15T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.000 on Jun 15, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "AAA",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "AAA",
            "url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "AAA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1199.95,
      "volume_total_usd": 2649.55,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-37917D68FF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodities",
        "energy",
        "us average gas",
        "us-economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X216JVWFV5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0H91TR22P8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASW-26JUN15-4.020",
      "question": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.020?",
      "description": "Above 4.020",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.020: The American Automobile Association's national average gas price on June 22, 2026, at 2 p.m. ET determines the outcome, with Kalshi staff verifying the data.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-15T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-15T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.020 on Jun 15, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "AAA",
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