{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-DGGQ1TXDR1",
  "slug": "kxaala-27janplf",
  "question": "American Airlines passenger load factor, January 2027",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      83,
      83.5
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 82,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 82.5,
        "prob": 86
      },
      {
        "threshold": 83,
        "prob": 81
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      {
        "threshold": 83.5,
        "prob": 44
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      {
        "threshold": 84,
        "prob": 16
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      {
        "threshold": 84.5,
        "prob": 8
      },
      {
        "threshold": 85,
        "prob": 5
      },
      {
        "threshold": 85.5,
        "prob": 3
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "american-airlines",
    "passenger-load-factor",
    "airline-operations",
    "fiscal-2026",
    "financial-metrics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track American Airlines Group's full-year passenger load factor for fiscal 2026. Kalshi structures the event as eight discrete strike thresholds, ranging from 82% to 85.5% in 50-basis-point increments. Taken together, the strikes form an implied probability distribution over the metric's likely range. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination, sourced from American Airlines' audited financial statements or official filings.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-NXXYJBMLG2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.44
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
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      "question": "Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 82% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?",
      "description": "Above 82%",
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      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 82%: The listed company's passenger load factor for fiscal 2026, as reported in audited financial statements or official SEC filings, resolves by April 27, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-27T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-27T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above 82% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market refers to the annual figure reported in American Airlines Group Inc.'s full fiscal year or Q4 earnings release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "score": 88,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 9812.87,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 82,
      "question_id": "CMX-89233D6E43",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "aal",
        "airline",
        "american airlines group",
        "capacity utilization",
        "load factor"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "resolve_at": "2027-04-27T05:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above 82.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market refers to the annual figure reported in American Airlines Group Inc.'s full fiscal year or Q4 earnings release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "rules_raw": "If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above 83.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market refers to the annual figure reported in American Airlines Group Inc.'s full fiscal year or Q4 earnings release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "question": "Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 84% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?",
      "description": "Above 84%",
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        "rules_raw": "If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above 84% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market refers to the annual figure reported in American Airlines Group Inc.'s full fiscal year or Q4 earnings release.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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