{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-77B3MX8X66",
  "slug": "kxaaplpricefold-27",
  "question": "Will Apple release a foldable iPhone?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "foldable-iphone",
    "apple-product-pricing",
    "consumer-electronics",
    "hardware-price-prediction",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the launch price of Apple's anticipated foldable iPhone, resolving by January 2027. All three are Kalshi binary contracts set at discrete strike thresholds: $1800, $2000, and $2200. Each higher strike is structurally nested within the lower, so the $2200 contract cannot resolve yes unless both lower strikes also resolve yes. Kalshi staff determination uses ABC News reporting on the listed product's launch price as the authoritative source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-VPRFZB19V9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.75,
    "implied_probability": 0.75
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZHT98800Y4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-77B3MX8X66",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAPLPRICEFOLD-27-1800",
      "question": "What will be the price of a foldable iPhone?",
      "description": "At least $1800",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least $1800: ABC News reporting on the listed product's price at launch, verified by Kalshi staff determination, resolves by January 1, 2027 at 3 p.m. UTC.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the first price announced for a foldable iPhone is at least $1800, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.91,
      "implied_probability": 0.91,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10.374,
      "volume_total_usd": 12398.4315,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 1800,
      "question_id": "CMX-42C45897E9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "apple",
        "foldable",
        "foldable iphone",
        "iphone",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VPRFZB19V9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-77B3MX8X66",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAPLPRICEFOLD-27-2000",
      "question": "What will be the price of a foldable iPhone?",
      "description": "At least $2000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least $2000: ABC News reporting on the listed product's price at launch, verified by Kalshi staff determination, resolves by January 1, 2027 at 3 p.m. UTC.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the first price announced for a foldable iPhone is at least $2000, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.75,
      "implied_probability": 0.75,
      "volume_24h_usd": 77.295,
      "volume_total_usd": 21835.65,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 2000,
      "question_id": "CMX-6842EDFDDE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "apple",
        "foldable",
        "foldable iphone",
        "iphone",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NR73QRY849",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-77B3MX8X66",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAAPLPRICEFOLD-27-2200",
      "question": "What will be the price of a foldable iPhone?",
      "description": "At least $2200",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least $2200: ABC News reporting on the listed product's price at launch, verified by Kalshi staff determination, resolves by January 1, 2027 at 3 p.m. UTC.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the first price announced for a foldable iPhone is at least $2200, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.46,
      "implied_probability": 0.46,
      "volume_24h_usd": 14.26,
      "volume_total_usd": 19498.388000000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 2200,
      "question_id": "CMX-F01D58ACB1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "apple",
        "foldable",
        "foldable iphone",
        "iphone",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-77B3MX8X66",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}