{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-JTHLZ00YV9",
  "slug": "kxabnb-26augneb",
  "question": "Airbnb nights and seats booked, Q2 2026",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      147000000,
      148000000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 141000000,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 144000000,
        "prob": 96
      },
      {
        "threshold": 145000000,
        "prob": 86
      },
      {
        "threshold": 146000000,
        "prob": 65
      },
      {
        "threshold": 147000000,
        "prob": 50
      },
      {
        "threshold": 148000000,
        "prob": 23
      },
      {
        "threshold": 149000000,
        "prob": 15
      },
      {
        "threshold": 150000000,
        "prob": 5
      },
      {
        "threshold": 153000000,
        "prob": 3
      },
      {
        "threshold": 156000000,
        "prob": 2
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "airbnb",
    "q2-2026",
    "travel-hospitality",
    "booking-metrics",
    "earnings-forecast"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Airbnb's nights and seats booked figure for Q2 2026. All ten contracts are Kalshi binary strikes ranging from 141 million to 156 million. Reading across the strike ladder implies a market-consensus distribution for the reported volume figure. Kalshi staff determination draws the booked-nights figure from Fiscal.ai as the authoritative data source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-TR66ZG0QK3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.23,
    "implied_probability": 0.23,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-19VRPW0J03",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JTHLZ00YV9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXABNB-26AUGNEB-P141000000",
      "question": "Will Airbnb Inc. report above 141 million nights & seats booked in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 141 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 141 million: Airbnb Inc.'s Q2 2026 nights and seats booked figure from Fiscal.ai, determined by Kalshi staff by September 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-04T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-04T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Airbnb Inc. reports above 141000000 nights & seats booked in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1634.64,
      "volume_total_usd": 12628.36,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 141000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-33ACBB95D0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "airbnb",
        "airbnb nights and",
        "bookings",
        "q2-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YCKKHV2Y39",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JTHLZ00YV9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXABNB-26AUGNEB-P144000000",
      "question": "Will Airbnb Inc. report above 144 million nights & seats booked in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 144 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 144 million: Airbnb Inc.'s Q2 2026 nights and seats booked figure from Fiscal.ai, determined by Kalshi staff by September 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-04T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-04T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Airbnb Inc. reports above 144000000 nights & seats booked in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.96,
      "implied_probability": 0.96,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.18,
      "volume_total_usd": 4163.13,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 144000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-59A640E66C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "airbnb",
        "airbnb nights and",
        "bookings",
        "q2-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C9QBXC9S26",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JTHLZ00YV9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXABNB-26AUGNEB-145000000",
      "question": "Will Airbnb Inc. report above 145 million nights & seats booked in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 145 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 145 million: Airbnb Inc.'s Q2 2026 nights and seats booked figure from Fiscal.ai, determined by Kalshi staff by September 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-04T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-04T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Airbnb Inc. reports above 145000000 nights & seats booked in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.86,
      "implied_probability": 0.86,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 285.92,
      "volume_total_usd": 532.25,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 145000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-6E53E9074F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "airbnb",
        "airbnb nights and",
        "bookings",
        "q2-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HGC61W4KH0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JTHLZ00YV9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXABNB-26AUGNEB-146000000",
      "question": "Will Airbnb Inc. report above 146 million nights & seats booked in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 146 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 146 million: Airbnb Inc.'s Q2 2026 nights and seats booked figure from Fiscal.ai, determined by Kalshi staff by September 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-04T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-04T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Airbnb Inc. reports above 146000000 nights & seats booked in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.65,
      "implied_probability": 0.65,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 301.35,
      "volume_total_usd": 613.24,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 146000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-A9627CD368",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "airbnb",
        "airbnb nights and",
        "bookings",
        "q2-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FC4YF566M6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JTHLZ00YV9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXABNB-26AUGNEB-P147000000",
      "question": "Will Airbnb Inc. report above 147 million nights & seats booked in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 147 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 147 million: Airbnb Inc.'s Q2 2026 nights and seats booked figure from Fiscal.ai, determined by Kalshi staff by September 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-04T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-04T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Airbnb Inc. reports above 147000000 nights & seats booked in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.5,
      "implied_probability": 0.5,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 72.17,
      "volume_total_usd": 2638.65,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 147000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-2D786ECBA6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "airbnb",
        "airbnb nights and",
        "bookings",
        "q2-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TR66ZG0QK3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JTHLZ00YV9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXABNB-26AUGNEB-148000000",
      "question": "Will Airbnb Inc. report above 148 million nights & seats booked in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 148 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 148 million: Airbnb Inc.'s Q2 2026 nights and seats booked figure from Fiscal.ai, determined by Kalshi staff by September 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-04T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-04T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Airbnb Inc. reports above 148000000 nights & seats booked in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
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          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "source_type": null,
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        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.23,
      "implied_probability": 0.23,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 39.36,
      "volume_total_usd": 506.1,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 148000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-294CF1DD41",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "airbnb",
        "airbnb nights and",
        "bookings",
        "q2-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0145718NX4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JTHLZ00YV9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXABNB-26AUGNEB-149000000",
      "question": "Will Airbnb Inc. report above 149 million nights & seats booked in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 149 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 149 million: Airbnb Inc.'s Q2 2026 nights and seats booked figure from Fiscal.ai, determined by Kalshi staff by September 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-04T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-04T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Airbnb Inc. reports above 149000000 nights & seats booked in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
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          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.15,
      "implied_probability": 0.15,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 39,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 149000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-20258EB22A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "airbnb",
        "airbnb nights and",
        "bookings",
        "q2-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
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        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7X6MQMWMX5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JTHLZ00YV9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXABNB-26AUGNEB-P150000000",
      "question": "Will Airbnb Inc. report above 150 million nights & seats booked in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 150 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 150 million: Airbnb Inc.'s Q2 2026 nights and seats booked figure from Fiscal.ai, determined by Kalshi staff by September 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-04T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-04T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Airbnb Inc. reports above 150000000 nights & seats booked in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 247.08,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 150000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-CFE33C7D19",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "airbnb",
        "airbnb nights and",
        "bookings",
        "q2-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RY8J7ZG771",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JTHLZ00YV9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXABNB-26AUGNEB-P153000000",
      "question": "Will Airbnb Inc. report above 153 million nights & seats booked in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 153 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 153 million: Airbnb Inc.'s Q2 2026 nights and seats booked figure from Fiscal.ai, determined by Kalshi staff by September 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-04T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-04T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JTHLZ00YV9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
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      "question": "Will Airbnb Inc. report above 156 million nights & seats booked in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 156 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-09-04T20:00:00Z",
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-JTHLZ00YV9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}