{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-NQR3376J33",
  "slug": "kxabrahamq-27",
  "question": "Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations before 2027?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "israel-qatar-relations",
    "middle-east-diplomacy",
    "normalization-agreement",
    "geopolitics",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether Israel and Qatar will formally normalize diplomatic relations before January 2027. A single Kalshi binary market prices the outcome, resolved by Kalshi staff determination using New York Times reporting as the authoritative source. No structural cross-platform divergence exists here; only one market is listed. Resolution is set for January 1, 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-QZX98T1137",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.033,
    "implied_probability": 0.033
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QZX98T1137",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NQR3376J33",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXABRAHAMQ-27-JAN01",
      "question": "Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations before 2027?",
      "description": "Before Jan 1, 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kalshi staff determination based on reporting by The New York Times regarding whether Israel and Qatar have established formal diplomatic relations by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Israel and Qatar normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe agreement must be ratified as before Jan 1, 2027 to be included within the Payout Criterion. Examples of agreements that would be encompassed by the Payout Criterion include the agreements signed in 2020 and 2021 between Israel and Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Morocco.Retry",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The New York Times",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "The New York Times",
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.033,
      "implied_probability": 0.033,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2725.29345,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "diplomacy",
        "israel",
        "israel qatar relations",
        "middle east",
        "qatar"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-NQR3376J33",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}