{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-NXN860J0R1",
  "slug": "kxagencies-26",
  "question": "Federal agencies cut by DOGE, through July 4, 2026",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
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      5
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    "strikes": [
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        "prob": 0
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        "prob": 0
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        "prob": 0
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        "prob": 0
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      {
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  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump-administration",
    "government-restructuring",
    "doge-department",
    "federal-agencies",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the number of federal agencies eliminated or consolidated by the DOGE initiative through July 4, 2026. Seven Kalshi binary contracts form a strike ladder at thresholds of 5, 10, 20, 30, 50, 100, and 200 agencies. Each contract prices a discrete threshold, together implying a cumulative probability distribution over agency-cut outcomes. Kalshi staff determination resolves against Federal Register documentation of agency eliminations or consolidations.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-YYS1J331Q8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YYS1J331Q8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NXN860J0R1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAGENCIES-26-5",
      "question": "Will DOGE cut at least 5 agencies?",
      "description": "More than 5",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "More than 5: Federal Register documentation of agency eliminations or consolidations by the listed administration, determined by Kalshi staff by July 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If there are more than 5 fewer federal agencies (as of Jan 16, 2025) on July 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nClarification (6/13/25 at 3:15am ET): he market resolves based on the count of the reduction in federal agencies. The value of \"441\" agencies on the Federal Register has not been properly updated. While we will reference the Federal Register's list, we will exclude defunct agencies from our final count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Register",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalregister.gov/agencies",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Register",
            "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/agencies",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Register",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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        "score": 70,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_total_usd": 1826.43,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2025",
        "doge",
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        "trump"
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      "platform_market_id": "KXAGENCIES-26-10",
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      "description": "More than 10",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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      "close_at": "2026-07-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-04T14:00:00Z",
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        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Register",
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXAGENCIES-26-20",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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      "close_at": "2026-07-04T14:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If there are more than 20 fewer federal agencies (as of Jan 16, 2025) on Jul 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nClarification (6/13/25 at 3:15am ET): he market resolves based on the count of the reduction in federal agencies. The value of \"441\" agencies on the Federal Register has not been properly updated. While we will reference the Federal Register's list, we will exclude defunct agencies from our final count.",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Register",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalregister.gov/agencies",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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          "bucket": null,
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NXN860J0R1",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXAGENCIES-26-30",
      "question": "Will DOGE cut at least 30 agencies?",
      "description": "More than 30",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "More than 30: Federal Register documentation of agency eliminations or consolidations by the listed administration, determined by Kalshi staff by July 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If there are more than 30 fewer federal agencies (as of Jan 16, 2025) on Jul 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nClarification (6/13/25 at 3:15am ET): he market resolves based on the count of the reduction in federal agencies. The value of \"441\" agencies on the Federal Register has not been properly updated. While we will reference the Federal Register's list, we will exclude defunct agencies from our final count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Register",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalregister.gov/agencies",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Register",
            "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/agencies",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Federal Register's list",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_total_usd": 158.57,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 30,
      "question_id": null,
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          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7XVJ4ZW8V2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NXN860J0R1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAGENCIES-26-50",
      "question": "Will DOGE cut at least 50 agencies?",
      "description": "More than 50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "More than 50: Federal Register documentation of agency eliminations or consolidations by the listed administration, determined by Kalshi staff by July 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-04T14:00:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If there are more than 50 fewer federal agencies (as of Jan 16, 2025) on Jul 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nClarification (6/13/25 at 3:15am ET): he market resolves based on the count of the reduction in federal agencies. The value of \"441\" agencies on the Federal Register has not been properly updated. While we will reference the Federal Register's list, we will exclude defunct agencies from our final count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Register",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalregister.gov/agencies",
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            "name": "Federal Register",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NXN860J0R1",
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      "question": "Will DOGE cut at least 100 agencies?",
      "description": "More than 100",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NXN860J0R1",
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      "question": "Will DOGE cut at least 200 agencies?",
      "description": "More than 200",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "NO",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
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      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-NXN860J0R1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}