{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-CYRWXHCJ44",
  "slug": "kxaipacloseprimary-26sep16",
  "question": "How many AIPAC-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-politics",
    "primary-elections",
    "aipac",
    "2026",
    "candidate-outcomes"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track AIPAC PAC-endorsed candidates losing primary elections between April 10 and September 2026. Kalshi structures the event as four cumulative strike thresholds: at least 1, 3, 5, and 10 losses. Higher strikes imply lower probability and create an implicit term structure of electoral risk. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination of the certified primary loss count.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-X34RTNBH97",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.99,
    "implied_probability": 0.99
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RQY291X4G2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CYRWXHCJ44",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAIPACLOSEPRIMARY-26SEP16-T1",
      "question": "Will the number of AIPAC PAC-endorsed candidates who lose their primary be at least 1 between Apr 10, 2026 and Sep 16, 2026?",
      "description": "At least 1",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 1: Kalshi staff determination of the count of PAC-endorsed candidates losing primaries between April 10 and September 16, 2026, resolved by December 15, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-17T23:28:08Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-15T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of AIPAC-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 is at least 1, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nEndorsements are determined by inclusion on the AIPAC PAC featured candidates page (https://candidates.aipacpac.org/page/featured/). A candidate counts as endorsed only if they are listed on the page AND the page allows donations to them through the AIPAC PAC at the time of the primary (e.g., candidates who are retiring, running for another office, deceased, or otherwise marked as non-donatable on the page — such as Cory Booker — are excluded). \"Primary\" includes runoffs and top-two/jungle primaries (e.g., California), and any election titled a primary. A candidate who withdraws before the primary is not counted as a loss; a candidate who advances past a top-two primary and then withdraws is counted as a loss. Only primaries held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 are included.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "AIPAC PAC featured candidates page (https://candidates.aipacpac.org/page/featured/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1988.94,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "aipac",
        "aipac pac endorsed",
        "political endorsements",
        "primary elections"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X34RTNBH97",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CYRWXHCJ44",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAIPACLOSEPRIMARY-26SEP16-T3",
      "question": "Will the number of AIPAC PAC-endorsed candidates who lose their primary be at least 3 between Apr 10, 2026 and Sep 16, 2026?",
      "description": "At least 3",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 3: Kalshi staff determination of the count of PAC-endorsed candidates losing primaries between April 10 and September 16, 2026, resolved by December 15, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-27T03:47:13Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-15T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of AIPAC-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 is at least 3, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nEndorsements are determined by inclusion on the AIPAC PAC featured candidates page (https://candidates.aipacpac.org/page/featured/). A candidate counts as endorsed only if they are listed on the page AND the page allows donations to them through the AIPAC PAC at the time of the primary (e.g., candidates who are retiring, running for another office, deceased, or otherwise marked as non-donatable on the page — such as Cory Booker — are excluded). \"Primary\" includes runoffs and top-two/jungle primaries (e.g., California), and any election titled a primary. A candidate who withdraws before the primary is not counted as a loss; a candidate who advances past a top-two primary and then withdraws is counted as a loss. Only primaries held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 are included.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "AIPAC PAC featured candidates page (https://candidates.aipacpac.org/page/featured/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 11169.18,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "aipac",
        "aipac pac endorsed",
        "political endorsements",
        "primary elections"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-70JXYC3N15",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CYRWXHCJ44",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAIPACLOSEPRIMARY-26SEP16-T5",
      "question": "Will the number of AIPAC PAC-endorsed candidates who lose their primary be at least 5 between Apr 10, 2026 and Sep 16, 2026?",
      "description": "At least 5",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 5: Kalshi staff determination of the count of PAC-endorsed candidates losing primaries between April 10 and September 16, 2026, resolved by December 15, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-16T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-15T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of AIPAC-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 is at least 5, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nEndorsements are determined by inclusion on the AIPAC PAC featured candidates page (https://candidates.aipacpac.org/page/featured/). A candidate counts as endorsed only if they are listed on the page AND the page allows donations to them through the AIPAC PAC at the time of the primary (e.g., candidates who are retiring, running for another office, deceased, or otherwise marked as non-donatable on the page — such as Cory Booker — are excluded). \"Primary\" includes runoffs and top-two/jungle primaries (e.g., California), and any election titled a primary. A candidate who withdraws before the primary is not counted as a loss; a candidate who advances past a top-two primary and then withdraws is counted as a loss. Only primaries held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 are included.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "AIPAC PAC featured candidates page (https://candidates.aipacpac.org/page/featured/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4011.2523,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "aipac",
        "aipac pac endorsed",
        "political endorsements",
        "primary elections"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QZ5M6HQ7S0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CYRWXHCJ44",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAIPACLOSEPRIMARY-26SEP16-T10",
      "question": "Will the number of AIPAC PAC-endorsed candidates who lose their primary be at least 10 between Apr 10, 2026 and Sep 16, 2026?",
      "description": "At least 10",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 10: Kalshi staff determination of the count of PAC-endorsed candidates losing primaries between April 10 and September 16, 2026, resolved by December 15, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-16T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-15T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of AIPAC-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 is at least 10, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nEndorsements are determined by inclusion on the AIPAC PAC featured candidates page (https://candidates.aipacpac.org/page/featured/). A candidate counts as endorsed only if they are listed on the page AND the page allows donations to them through the AIPAC PAC at the time of the primary (e.g., candidates who are retiring, running for another office, deceased, or otherwise marked as non-donatable on the page — such as Cory Booker — are excluded). \"Primary\" includes runoffs and top-two/jungle primaries (e.g., California), and any election titled a primary. A candidate who withdraws before the primary is not counted as a loss; a candidate who advances past a top-two primary and then withdraws is counted as a loss. Only primaries held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 are included.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "AIPAC PAC featured candidates page (https://candidates.aipacpac.org/page/featured/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.41,
      "implied_probability": 0.41,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 903.5498,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "aipac",
        "aipac pac endorsed",
        "political endorsements",
        "primary elections"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RQY291X4G2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-12-15T14:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0.99,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X34RTNBH97",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-12-15T14:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0.99,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-CYRWXHCJ44",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}