{
  "_notice": {
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    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-CYRWXHCJ44",
  "slug": "kxaipacloseprimary-26sep16",
  "question": "How many AIPAC-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-politics",
    "primary-elections",
    "aipac",
    "candidate-endorsements",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track how many AIPAC PAC-endorsed candidates lose their primaries between April 10 and September 2026. Kalshi structures the event as three ascending strike thresholds: at least 3, at least 5, and at least 10 losses. Each tier prices a discrete exceedance level, creating an implied probability ladder across the primary season. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination of the cumulative loss count through the September 2026 primary window.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-X34RTNBH97",
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXAIPACLOSEPRIMARY-26SEP16-T3",
      "question": "Will the number of AIPAC PAC-endorsed candidates who lose their primary be at least 3 between Apr 10, 2026 and Sep 16, 2026?",
      "description": "At least 3",
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      "close_at": "2026-05-27T03:47:13Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-15T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of AIPAC-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 is at least 3, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nEndorsements are determined by inclusion on the AIPAC PAC featured candidates page (https://candidates.aipacpac.org/page/featured/). A candidate counts as endorsed only if they are listed on the page AND the page allows donations to them through the AIPAC PAC at the time of the primary (e.g., candidates who are retiring, running for another office, deceased, or otherwise marked as non-donatable on the page — such as Cory Booker — are excluded). \"Primary\" includes runoffs and top-two/jungle primaries (e.g., California), and any election titled a primary. A candidate who withdraws before the primary is not counted as a loss; a candidate who advances past a top-two primary and then withdraws is counted as a loss. Only primaries held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 are included.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_total_usd": 11169.18,
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      "question": "Will the number of AIPAC PAC-endorsed candidates who lose their primary be at least 5 between Apr 10, 2026 and Sep 16, 2026?",
      "description": "At least 5",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-12-15T14:00:00Z",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXAIPACLOSEPRIMARY-26SEP16-T10",
      "question": "Will the number of AIPAC PAC-endorsed candidates who lose their primary be at least 10 between Apr 10, 2026 and Sep 16, 2026?",
      "description": "At least 10",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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      "close_at": "2026-09-16T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-15T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the number of AIPAC-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 is at least 10, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nEndorsements are determined by inclusion on the AIPAC PAC featured candidates page (https://candidates.aipacpac.org/page/featured/). A candidate counts as endorsed only if they are listed on the page AND the page allows donations to them through the AIPAC PAC at the time of the primary (e.g., candidates who are retiring, running for another office, deceased, or otherwise marked as non-donatable on the page — such as Cory Booker — are excluded). \"Primary\" includes runoffs and top-two/jungle primaries (e.g., California), and any election titled a primary. A candidate who withdraws before the primary is not counted as a loss; a candidate who advances past a top-two primary and then withdraws is counted as a loss. Only primaries held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 are included.",
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        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.19,
      "implied_probability": 0.19,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-20T07:01:21.164Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 622.4609,
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      "question_id": null,
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RQY291X4G2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CYRWXHCJ44",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXAIPACLOSEPRIMARY-26SEP16-T1",
      "question": "Will the number of AIPAC PAC-endorsed candidates who lose their primary be at least 1 between Apr 10, 2026 and Sep 16, 2026?",
      "description": "At least 1",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 1: Kalshi staff determination of the count of PAC-endorsed candidates losing primaries between April 10 and September 16, 2026, resolved by December 15, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-17T23:28:08Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-15T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "If the number of AIPAC-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 is at least 1, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nEndorsements are determined by inclusion on the AIPAC PAC featured candidates page (https://candidates.aipacpac.org/page/featured/). A candidate counts as endorsed only if they are listed on the page AND the page allows donations to them through the AIPAC PAC at the time of the primary (e.g., candidates who are retiring, running for another office, deceased, or otherwise marked as non-donatable on the page — such as Cory Booker — are excluded). \"Primary\" includes runoffs and top-two/jungle primaries (e.g., California), and any election titled a primary. A candidate who withdraws before the primary is not counted as a loss; a candidate who advances past a top-two primary and then withdraws is counted as a loss. Only primaries held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 are included.",
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