{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZLG0HNV058",
  "slug": "kxaispike-26b",
  "question": "Will AI capabilities grow before July?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai-capability",
    "benchmark-performance",
    "near-term-ai",
    "2026",
    "technology-milestone"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether any AI model reaches discrete Elo score thresholds on the LM Arena Leaderboard before July 1, 2026. The eight Kalshi contracts form a strike ladder from 1525 to 1700, each a binary yes/no at a 25-point interval. Higher strikes imply lower probability, creating an implied capability curve across the ladder. Kalshi staff determination resolves each contract against the LM Arena Leaderboard's Remove Style Control rankings as of July 1, 2026 at 14:00 UTC.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-V8DW7VWJC0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V8DW7VWJC0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZLG0HNV058",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAISPIKE-26B-1525",
      "question": "Will any AI model have a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026",
      "description": "At least 1525 score",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 1525 score: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of July 1, 2026, 14:00 UTC determines whether any listed AI model achieved a score of at least 1525, verified by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If an AI model has a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "LMSYS leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LMSYS leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 358.58,
      "volume_total_usd": 4917.77,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 1525,
      "question_id": "CMX-A2B83A166B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai model benchmark",
        "benchmark",
        "capability"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6P8FX6BSG0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZLG0HNV058",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAISPIKE-26B-1550",
      "question": "Will any AI model have a score of at least 1550 before Jul 1, 2026",
      "description": "At least 1550 score",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 1550 score: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of July 1, 2026, 14:00 UTC determines whether any listed AI model achieved a score of at least 1525, verified by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If an AI model has a score of at least 1550 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "LMSYS leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LMSYS leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 253.55,
      "volume_total_usd": 1796.76,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 1550,
      "question_id": "CMX-1CEE906D57",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai model benchmark",
        "benchmark",
        "capability"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZMY8BQNT25",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZLG0HNV058",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAISPIKE-26B-1575",
      "question": "Will any AI model have a score of at least 1575 before Jul 1, 2026",
      "description": "At least 1575 score",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 1575 score: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of July 1, 2026, 14:00 UTC determines whether any listed AI model achieved a score of at least 1525, verified by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If an AI model has a score of at least 1575 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "LMSYS leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LMSYS leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 12.54,
      "volume_total_usd": 743.55,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 1575,
      "question_id": "CMX-57C9848607",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai model benchmark",
        "benchmark",
        "capability"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-36QM94T019",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZLG0HNV058",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAISPIKE-26B-1600",
      "question": "Will any AI model have a score of at least 1600 before Jul 1, 2026",
      "description": "At least 1600 score",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 1600 score: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of July 1, 2026, 14:00 UTC determines whether any listed AI model achieved a score of at least 1525, verified by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If an AI model has a score of at least 1600 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "LMSYS leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LMSYS leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 27.37,
      "volume_total_usd": 270.52,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 1600,
      "question_id": "CMX-5D7B1BEE7B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai model benchmark",
        "benchmark",
        "capability"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XYX8Q4LVZ3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZLG0HNV058",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAISPIKE-26B-1625",
      "question": "Will any AI model have a score of at least 1625 before Jul 1, 2026",
      "description": "At least 1625 score",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 1625 score: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of July 1, 2026, 14:00 UTC determines whether any listed AI model achieved a score of at least 1525, verified by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If an AI model has a score of at least 1625 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "LMSYS leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LMSYS leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1,
      "volume_total_usd": 109.83,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 1625,
      "question_id": "CMX-C062857CAF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai model benchmark",
        "benchmark",
        "capability"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3BRHM5B9Q6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZLG0HNV058",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAISPIKE-26B-1650",
      "question": "Will any AI model have a score of at least 1650 before Jul 1, 2026",
      "description": "At least 1650 score",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 1650 score: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of July 1, 2026, 14:00 UTC determines whether any listed AI model achieved a score of at least 1525, verified by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If an AI model has a score of at least 1650 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "LMSYS leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LMSYS leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 52.29,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 1650,
      "question_id": "CMX-4305DA2019",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai model benchmark",
        "benchmark",
        "capability"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-42NT71XXP6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZLG0HNV058",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAISPIKE-26B-1675",
      "question": "Will any AI model have a score of at least 1675 before Jul 1, 2026",
      "description": "At least 1675 score",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 1675 score: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of July 1, 2026, 14:00 UTC determines whether any listed AI model achieved a score of at least 1525, verified by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If an AI model has a score of at least 1675 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "LMSYS leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LMSYS leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 53.55,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 1675,
      "question_id": "CMX-62696D394B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai model benchmark",
        "benchmark",
        "capability"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-671DMZ61J8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZLG0HNV058",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAISPIKE-26B-1700",
      "question": "Will any AI model have a score of at least 1700 before Jul 1, 2026",
      "description": "At least 1700 score",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 1700 score: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of July 1, 2026, 14:00 UTC determines whether any listed AI model achieved a score of at least 1525, verified by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If an AI model has a score of at least 1700 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "LMSYS leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LMSYS leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 91.95,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 1700,
      "question_id": "CMX-C3A60F6903",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai model benchmark",
        "benchmark",
        "capability"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V8DW7VWJC0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6P8FX6BSG0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZMY8BQNT25",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-36QM94T019",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XYX8Q4LVZ3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3BRHM5B9Q6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-42NT71XXP6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-671DMZ61J8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-ZLG0HNV058",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}