{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-0MCTG7XWR4",
  "slug": "kxaispike-27",
  "question": "Will there be significant AI capability growth this year?",
  "category": "technology",
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  "tags": [
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    "ai-capability",
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    "benchmark-performance",
    "2027",
    "technology-frontier"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether any AI model reaches discrete Elo score thresholds on the LM Arena Leaderboard before January 1, 2027. The eight Kalshi contracts form a strike ladder from 1520 to 1750, pricing the probability of each successive capability level. Higher-strike contracts are structurally subordinate: a 1700 resolution requires clearing every lower threshold first. Kalshi staff determination is the resolution mechanism for all contracts.",
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
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      "question": "Will any AI model have a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027",
      "description": "At least 1520 score",
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      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 1520 score: Kalshi staff determination of whether any model achieves at least 1550 on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) by January 1, 2027 at 15:00 UTC.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXAISPIKE, notice id LLM-OTHER2):\n**Important information**: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf an AI model has a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXAISPIKE, notice id LLM-OTHER2):\n**Important information**: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf an AI model has a score of at least 1530 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXAISPIKE, notice id LLM-OTHER2):\n**Important information**: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf an AI model has a score of at least 1540 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "question": "Will any AI model have a score of at least 1550 before Jan 1, 2027",
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      "underlying_reference": "At least 1550 score: Kalshi staff determination of whether any model achieves at least 1550 on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) by January 1, 2027 at 15:00 UTC.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXAISPIKE, notice id LLM-OTHER2):\n**Important information**: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf an AI model has a score of at least 1550 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "question": "Will any AI model have a score of at least 1650 before Jan 1, 2027",
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        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXAISPIKE, notice id LLM-OTHER2):\n**Important information**: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf an AI model has a score of at least 1650 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "question": "Will any AI model have a score of at least 1700 before Jan 1, 2027",
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        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXAISPIKE, notice id LLM-OTHER2):\n**Important information**: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf an AI model has a score of at least 1700 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "question": "Will any AI model have a score of at least 1750 before Jan 1, 2027",
      "description": "At least 1750 score",
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      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXAISPIKE, notice id LLM-OTHER2):\n**Important information**: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf an AI model has a score of at least 1750 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "LMSYS leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 135.3,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 1750,
      "question_id": "CMX-7C87FCF27B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "1750",
        "ai",
        "ai model benchmark",
        "benchmark",
        "capability"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-0MCTG7XWR4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}