{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-XF002SH6F1",
  "slug": "kxaksalmon-26all",
  "question": "Will Alaska's commercial salmon harvest exceed 200 million fish in 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "alaska-salmon",
    "commercial-fisheries",
    "2027-resolution",
    "commodity-production",
    "environmental-impact"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Alaska's 2026 commercial all-salmon harvest total against a ladder of discrete strike thresholds. Each contract is binary and structured as a cumulative exceedance series from 100 million to 150 million fish, in 5-million-fish increments. Together they imply a market-derived probability distribution over the harvest range. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using the Alaska Department of Fish and Game's final 2026 harvest report, due by January 14, 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-DKSRR7M892",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.28,
    "implied_probability": 0.28,
    "as_of": "2026-09-07T13:00:48.066Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L1NSHWVMF3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XF002SH6F1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T100000000",
      "question": "Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 100 million fish or above?",
      "description": "At least 100 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 100 million: The Alaska Department of Fish and Game's final 2026 commercial all salmon harvest report, released by January 14, 2027, determines if the total reached the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 100 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
            "url": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.72,
      "implied_probability": 0.72,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T19:00:47.588Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2581.6176,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 100000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-76232C9D17",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "alaska",
        "alaska commercial all",
        "commercial fishery",
        "harvest",
        "salmon"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-55MF0S6RD7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XF002SH6F1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T105000000",
      "question": "Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 105 million fish or above?",
      "description": "At least 105 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 105 million: The Alaska Department of Fish and Game's final 2026 commercial all salmon harvest report, released by January 14, 2027, determines if the total reached the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 105 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
            "url": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.56,
      "implied_probability": 0.56,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.12,
      "volume_total_usd": 991.0600000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 105000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-84BFCB346A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "alaska",
        "alaska commercial all",
        "commercial fishery",
        "harvest",
        "salmon"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V8SVD9CBN6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XF002SH6F1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T110000000",
      "question": "Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 110 million fish or above?",
      "description": "At least 110 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 110 million: The Alaska Department of Fish and Game's final 2026 commercial all salmon harvest report, released by January 14, 2027, determines if the total reached the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 110 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
            "url": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.5,
      "implied_probability": 0.5,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2909.785,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 110000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-B45E6724CF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "alaska",
        "alaska commercial all",
        "commercial fishery",
        "harvest",
        "salmon"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KTGMH0ZZR3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XF002SH6F1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T115000000",
      "question": "Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 115 million fish or above?",
      "description": "At least 115 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 115 million: The Alaska Department of Fish and Game's final 2026 commercial all salmon harvest report, released by January 14, 2027, determines if the total reached the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 115 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
            "url": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.37,
      "implied_probability": 0.37,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-08T21:00:38.937Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2366.3794,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 115000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-9F5608DB06",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "alaska",
        "alaska commercial all",
        "commercial fishery",
        "harvest",
        "salmon"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DKSRR7M892",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XF002SH6F1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T120000000",
      "question": "Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 120 million fish or above?",
      "description": "At least 120 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 120 million: The Alaska Department of Fish and Game's final 2026 commercial all salmon harvest report, released by January 14, 2027, determines if the total reached the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 120 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
            "url": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.28,
      "implied_probability": 0.28,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T13:00:48.066Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1631.4508,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 120000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-D5FC8F6789",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "alaska",
        "alaska commercial all",
        "commercial fishery",
        "harvest",
        "salmon"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4PJ6G62Z65",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XF002SH6F1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T125000000",
      "question": "Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 125 million fish or above?",
      "description": "At least 125 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 125 million: The Alaska Department of Fish and Game's final 2026 commercial all salmon harvest report, released by January 14, 2027, determines if the total reached the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 125 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
            "url": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.25,
      "implied_probability": 0.25,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-09T15:00:37.291Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 810.2025,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 125000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-0CDF82E83D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "alaska",
        "alaska commercial all",
        "commercial fishery",
        "harvest",
        "salmon"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K6M3XKZH38",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XF002SH6F1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T130000000",
      "question": "Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 130 million fish or above?",
      "description": "At least 130 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 130 million: The Alaska Department of Fish and Game's final 2026 commercial all salmon harvest report, released by January 14, 2027, determines if the total reached the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 130 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
            "url": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.21,
      "implied_probability": 0.21,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 100.5312,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 130000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-3011C69E1B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "alaska",
        "alaska commercial all",
        "commercial fishery",
        "harvest",
        "salmon"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XC90ZHLKS2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XF002SH6F1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T135000000",
      "question": "Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 135 million fish or above?",
      "description": "At least 135 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 135 million: The Alaska Department of Fish and Game's final 2026 commercial all salmon harvest report, released by January 14, 2027, determines if the total reached the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 135 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
            "url": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.19,
      "implied_probability": 0.19,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 82.3574,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 135000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-2E6CD3C613",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "alaska",
        "alaska commercial all",
        "commercial fishery",
        "harvest",
        "salmon"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P3YSL898Y9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XF002SH6F1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T140000000",
      "question": "Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 140 million fish or above?",
      "description": "At least 140 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 140 million: The Alaska Department of Fish and Game's final 2026 commercial all salmon harvest report, released by January 14, 2027, determines if the total reached the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 140 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
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}