{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-XF002SH6F1",
  "slug": "kxaksalmon-26all",
  "question": "Will Alaska's commercial salmon harvest exceed 200 million fish in 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "alaska-salmon",
    "commercial-fisheries",
    "2027-resolution",
    "commodity-production",
    "environmental-impact"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Alaska's total commercial all-species salmon harvest count for 2026. Kalshi structures the event as eleven ascending strike thresholds, from 100 million to 150 million fish, each a separate binary contract. The spread of implied probabilities across strikes functions as a discrete cumulative distribution over harvest volume. The Alaska Department of Fish and Game publishes the final harvest figure, with Kalshi staff determination applied at settlement in January 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KTGMH0ZZR3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.75,
    "implied_probability": 0.75
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L1NSHWVMF3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XF002SH6F1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T100000000",
      "question": "Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 100 million fish or above?",
      "description": "At least 100 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 100 million: Alaska Department of Fish and Game releases its final 2026 commercial all-species salmon harvest total by January 14, 2027, with Kalshi staff determination resolving the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 100 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
            "url": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.78,
      "implied_probability": 0.78,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 659.1156,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 100000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-76232C9D17",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "alaska",
        "alaska commercial all",
        "commercial fishery",
        "harvest",
        "salmon"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-55MF0S6RD7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XF002SH6F1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T105000000",
      "question": "Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 105 million fish or above?",
      "description": "At least 105 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 105 million: Alaska Department of Fish and Game releases its final 2026 commercial all-species salmon harvest total by January 14, 2027, with Kalshi staff determination resolving the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 105 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
            "url": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.73,
      "implied_probability": 0.73,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 809.0151999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 105000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-84BFCB346A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "alaska",
        "alaska commercial all",
        "commercial fishery",
        "harvest",
        "salmon"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V8SVD9CBN6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XF002SH6F1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T110000000",
      "question": "Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 110 million fish or above?",
      "description": "At least 110 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 110 million: Alaska Department of Fish and Game releases its final 2026 commercial all-species salmon harvest total by January 14, 2027, with Kalshi staff determination resolving the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 110 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
            "url": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.75,
      "implied_probability": 0.75,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3366.7650000000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 110000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-B45E6724CF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "alaska",
        "alaska commercial all",
        "commercial fishery",
        "harvest",
        "salmon"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KTGMH0ZZR3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XF002SH6F1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T115000000",
      "question": "Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 115 million fish or above?",
      "description": "At least 115 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 115 million: Alaska Department of Fish and Game releases its final 2026 commercial all-species salmon harvest total by January 14, 2027, with Kalshi staff determination resolving the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 115 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
            "url": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.75,
      "implied_probability": 0.75,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3355.215,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 115000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-9F5608DB06",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "alaska",
        "alaska commercial all",
        "commercial fishery",
        "harvest",
        "salmon"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DKSRR7M892",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XF002SH6F1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T120000000",
      "question": "Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 120 million fish or above?",
      "description": "At least 120 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 120 million: Alaska Department of Fish and Game releases its final 2026 commercial all-species salmon harvest total by January 14, 2027, with Kalshi staff determination resolving the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 120 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
            "url": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.59,
      "implied_probability": 0.59,
      "volume_24h_usd": 118.9204,
      "volume_total_usd": 3147.6440999999995,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 120000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-D5FC8F6789",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "alaska",
        "alaska commercial all",
        "commercial fishery",
        "harvest",
        "salmon"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4PJ6G62Z65",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XF002SH6F1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T125000000",
      "question": "Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 125 million fish or above?",
      "description": "At least 125 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 125 million: Alaska Department of Fish and Game releases its final 2026 commercial all-species salmon harvest total by January 14, 2027, with Kalshi staff determination resolving the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 125 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
            "url": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.54,
      "implied_probability": 0.54,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.08,
      "volume_total_usd": 1591.8174000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 125000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-0CDF82E83D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "alaska",
        "alaska commercial all",
        "commercial fishery",
        "harvest",
        "salmon"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K6M3XKZH38",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XF002SH6F1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T130000000",
      "question": "Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 130 million fish or above?",
      "description": "At least 130 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 130 million: Alaska Department of Fish and Game releases its final 2026 commercial all-species salmon harvest total by January 14, 2027, with Kalshi staff determination resolving the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 130 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
            "url": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.43,
      "implied_probability": 0.43,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 19.5263,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 130000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-3011C69E1B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "alaska",
        "alaska commercial all",
        "commercial fishery",
        "harvest",
        "salmon"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XC90ZHLKS2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XF002SH6F1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T135000000",
      "question": "Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 135 million fish or above?",
      "description": "At least 135 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 135 million: Alaska Department of Fish and Game releases its final 2026 commercial all-species salmon harvest total by January 14, 2027, with Kalshi staff determination resolving the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 135 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
            "url": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.32,
      "implied_probability": 0.32,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 125.09440000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 135000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-2E6CD3C613",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "alaska",
        "alaska commercial all",
        "commercial fishery",
        "harvest",
        "salmon"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P3YSL898Y9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XF002SH6F1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T140000000",
      "question": "Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 140 million fish or above?",
      "description": "At least 140 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 140 million: Alaska Department of Fish and Game releases its final 2026 commercial all-species salmon harvest total by January 14, 2027, with Kalshi staff determination resolving the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-14T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 140 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
            "url": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Alaska Department of Fish and Game",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.21,
      "implied_probability": 0.21,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1242.4335,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 140000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-6BEE4B24FA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "alaska",
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        "commercial fishery",
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-XF002SH6F1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}