{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-M2FPQ2WS88",
  "slug": "kxalitoannounceretire-26jun",
  "question": "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "supreme-court",
    "judicial-retirement",
    "us-politics",
    "alito",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Justice Samuel Alito publicly announces departure from the Supreme Court. Kalshi structures the event as a deadline ladder, pricing the probability of announcement across seven sequential cutoff dates from July 1, 2026 through July 1, 2027. Earlier deadlines imply lower probability; later deadlines embed cumulative probability across the full window. Resolution in all cases falls to Kalshi staff determination by July 8, 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-X4J372HBV1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.48,
    "implied_probability": 0.48
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WYP9M93BG1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M2FPQ2WS88",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-JUL01",
      "question": "Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jul 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Jul 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jul 1, 2026: Kalshi staff determination by July 8, 2027 whether the named justice publicly announces departure from the Supreme Court before July 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date.\n\nIf the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.\n\nFor \"leave,\" cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "person",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government records and registries",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official government records and registries",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 107.18,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "alito",
        "retirement",
        "samuel alito retirement",
        "supreme court"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2814L8S6Y0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M2FPQ2WS88",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-JUL04",
      "question": "Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jul 4, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Jul 4, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jul 4, 2026: Kalshi staff determination by July 8, 2027 whether the named justice publicly announces departure from the Supreme Court before July 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-04T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-11T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Jul 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date.\n\nIf the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.\n\nFor \"leave,\" cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "person",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government records and registries",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official government records and registries",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1096.81,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "alito",
        "retirement",
        "samuel alito retirement",
        "supreme court"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RL2S5PJ8S1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M2FPQ2WS88",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-JUL06",
      "question": "Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jul 6, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Jul 6, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jul 6, 2026: Kalshi staff determination by July 8, 2027 whether the named justice publicly announces departure from the Supreme Court before July 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-06T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Jul 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date.\n\nIf the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.\n\nFor \"leave,\" cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "person",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government records and registries",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official government records and registries",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 969.88,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "alito",
        "retirement",
        "samuel alito retirement",
        "supreme court"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LMDK6F11V3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M2FPQ2WS88",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-AUG01",
      "question": "Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Aug 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Aug 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Aug 1, 2026: Kalshi staff determination by July 8, 2027 whether the named justice publicly announces departure from the Supreme Court before July 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date.\n\nIf the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.\n\nFor \"leave,\" cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "person",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
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            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "official government records and registries",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official government records and registries",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 29.9857,
      "volume_total_usd": 1807.546,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "alito",
        "retirement",
        "samuel alito retirement",
        "supreme court"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WXXSMDJ0G8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M2FPQ2WS88",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-OCT01",
      "question": "Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Oct 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Oct 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Oct 1, 2026: Kalshi staff determination by July 8, 2027 whether the named justice publicly announces departure from the Supreme Court before July 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date.\n\nIf the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.\n\nFor \"leave,\" cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "person",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government records and registries",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official government records and registries",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 17.3944,
      "volume_total_usd": 3564.3712,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "alito",
        "retirement",
        "samuel alito retirement",
        "supreme court"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6KT8XW1JK5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M2FPQ2WS88",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-JAN01",
      "question": "Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Before Jan 1, 2027",
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