{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-D6V79HLL45",
  "slug": "kxalitoout",
  "question": "Will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-supreme-court",
    "judicial-retirement",
    "justice-alito",
    "2026-resolution",
    "political-succession"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Justice Samuel Alito vacates his Supreme Court seat across four discrete deadlines. Kalshi structures the event as cascading binary thresholds: before July 2026, September 2026, January 2027, and July 2027. Each tier resolves via Kalshi staff determination against public retirement announcements. Resolution windows are staggered, so earlier contracts settling \"No\" shift implied probability to later tiers.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-2CH761BYS5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.098,
    "implied_probability": 0.098
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F5YVDMHYZ8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D6V79HLL45",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXALITOOUT-26JUL01",
      "question": "Will Samuel Alito retires the Supreme Court in before July?",
      "description": "Before Jul 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jul 1, 2026: The named Supreme Court justice's retirement status resolves according to Kalshi staff determination by January 1, 2027, based on public announcement or official court records.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court Justice before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe resolution is based on the effective date of the resignation.\n\nIf the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "person",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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        "source_of_record": "official government records and registries",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 267.06,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "retirement",
        "supreme court"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JNQD0L1GG7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D6V79HLL45",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXALITOOUT-26SEP01",
      "question": "Will Samuel Alito retires the Supreme Court in before September?",
      "description": "Before Sep 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Sep 1, 2026: The named Supreme Court justice's retirement status resolves according to Kalshi staff determination by January 1, 2027, based on public announcement or official court records.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court Justice before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe resolution is based on the effective date of the resignation.\n\nIf the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
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          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
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          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government records and registries",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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        "source_of_record": "official government records and registries",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.017,
      "implied_probability": 0.017,
      "volume_24h_usd": 34.68153,
      "volume_total_usd": 5555.73345,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "alito",
        "justice samuel alito",
        "retirement",
        "supreme court"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2CH761BYS5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D6V79HLL45",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXALITOOUT-27JAN01",
      "question": "Will Samuel Alito retires the Supreme Court in before 2027?",
      "description": "Before Jan 1, 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jan 1, 2027: The named Supreme Court justice's retirement status resolves according to Kalshi staff determination by January 1, 2027, based on public announcement or official court records.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court Justice before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe resolution is based on the effective date of the resignation.\n\nIf the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "person",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
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          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
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          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "official government records and registries",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
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          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
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            "name": "Politico",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.098,
      "implied_probability": 0.098,
      "volume_24h_usd": 123.41629999999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 25714.80604,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "alito",
        "justice samuel alito",
        "retirement",
        "supreme court"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2CRCLZMK01",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D6V79HLL45",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXALITOOUT-27JUL01",
      "question": "Will Samuel Alito be out as before Jul 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Before Jul 1, 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jul 1, 2027: The named Supreme Court justice's retirement status resolves according to Kalshi staff determination by January 1, 2027, based on public announcement or official court records.",
      "close_at": "2027-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe resolution is based on the effective date of the resignation.\n\nIf the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
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      "volume_24h_usd": 6.957699999999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 10551.7272,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "alito",
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        "retirement",
        "supreme court"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F5YVDMHYZ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T14:43:03.180835Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0.001,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-D6V79HLL45",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}