{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-MKF0D4VPY1",
  "slug": "kxaocsenate-28",
  "question": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-senate-2028",
    "aoc",
    "electoral-candidacy",
    "new-york-politics",
    "progressive-dem"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez officially declares a 2028 U.S. Senate candidacy. Kalshi prices the binary outcome via Kalshi staff determination of formal candidacy declaration. No cross-platform structural contrast is available; only one market exists. Resolution turns on whether AOC files or publicly declares before April 1, 2028.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-V60D4X3346",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.52,
    "implied_probability": 0.52
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V60D4X3346",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MKF0D4VPY1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAOCSENATE-28",
      "question": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028?",
      "description": "Before 2028",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kalshi staff determination of whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has officially declared candidacy for U.S. Senate in 2028 by April 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-04-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-04-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez runs for Senate in 2028 before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nNote: FEC filings alone do not resolve this market to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 46,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.52,
      "implied_probability": 0.52,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.48360000000000003,
      "volume_total_usd": 12701.3016,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2028",
        "alexandria ocasio cortez",
        "aoc",
        "senate",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-MKF0D4VPY1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}