{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-D86SF1DT56",
  "slug": "kxaprpotus-26aug07",
  "question": "Will Trump's approval rating be above 50% on August 7, 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump-approval",
    "presidential-polling",
    "2026",
    "realclearpolitics",
    "us-politics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Trump's RealClearPolitics average approval rating on August 7, 2026 at 3 p.m. ET. Kalshi structures the event as eight discrete rate-level tiers, spanning below 39.2 to above 40.9. Each tier is mutually exclusive, letting traders price the probability distribution across the full approval range. Resolution is by Kalshi staff determination using the RealClearPolitics polling average as the authoritative source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-D111QB44V1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.84,
    "implied_probability": 0.84
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D111QB44V1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D86SF1DT56",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAPRPOTUS-26AUG07-39.2",
      "question": "Will the President's approval rating be below 39.2 according to RealClearPolitics?",
      "description": "Below 39.2",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below 39.2: RealClearPolitics approval rating tracker for the named candidate on August 7, 2026 at 3 p.m. ET determines whether the listed outcome is met, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the President's approval rating is below 39.2% at 11:00 AM ET on August 07, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on August 07, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "RealClearPolitics",
            "url": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.84,
      "implied_probability": 0.84,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3613.14,
      "volume_total_usd": 12717.03,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 39.2,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "approval",
        "realclearpolitics",
        "trump",
        "trump approval rating"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-82F5S842Z6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D86SF1DT56",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAPRPOTUS-26AUG07-39.3",
      "question": "Will the President's approval rating be between 39.2 and 39.4 according to RealClearPolitics?",
      "description": "39.2 to 39.4",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "39.2 to 39.4: RealClearPolitics approval rating tracker for the named candidate on August 7, 2026 at 3 p.m. ET determines whether the listed outcome is met, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the President's approval rating is between 39.2 and 39.4% at 11:00 AM ET on August 07, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on August 07, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "RealClearPolitics",
            "url": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": 370.11,
      "volume_total_usd": 1024.94,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 39.4,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "approval",
        "realclearpolitics",
        "trump",
        "trump approval rating"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6T3JF8GYH9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D86SF1DT56",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAPRPOTUS-26AUG07-39.6",
      "question": "Will the President's approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.7 according to RealClearPolitics?",
      "description": "39.5 to 39.7",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "39.5 to 39.7: RealClearPolitics approval rating tracker for the named candidate on August 7, 2026 at 3 p.m. ET determines whether the listed outcome is met, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the President's approval rating is between 39.5 and 39.7% at 11:00 AM ET on August 07, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on August 07, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "RealClearPolitics",
            "url": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 87.54,
      "volume_total_usd": 264.67,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 39.7,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "approval",
        "realclearpolitics",
        "trump",
        "trump approval rating"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZFMM03DVZ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D86SF1DT56",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAPRPOTUS-26AUG07-39.9",
      "question": "Will the President's approval rating be between 39.8 and 40.0 according to RealClearPolitics?",
      "description": "39.8 to 40.0",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "39.8 to 40.0: RealClearPolitics approval rating tracker for the named candidate on August 7, 2026 at 3 p.m. ET determines whether the listed outcome is met, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the President's approval rating is between 39.8 and 40.0% at 11:00 AM ET on August 07, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on August 07, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "RealClearPolitics",
            "url": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 25.11,
      "volume_total_usd": 111.13,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 40,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "approval",
        "realclearpolitics",
        "trump",
        "trump approval rating"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZHX2DZJTP9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D86SF1DT56",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAPRPOTUS-26AUG07-40.2",
      "question": "Will the President's approval rating be between 40.1 and 40.3 according to RealClearPolitics?",
      "description": "40.1 to 40.3",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "40.1 to 40.3: RealClearPolitics approval rating tracker for the named candidate on August 7, 2026 at 3 p.m. ET determines whether the listed outcome is met, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the President's approval rating is between 40.1 and 40.3% at 11:00 AM ET on August 07, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on August 07, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "RealClearPolitics",
            "url": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 32.54,
      "volume_total_usd": 122.05,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 40.3,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "approval",
        "realclearpolitics",
        "trump",
        "trump approval rating"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SX0MXYSMV7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D86SF1DT56",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAPRPOTUS-26AUG07-40.5",
      "question": "Will the President's approval rating be between 40.4 and 40.6 according to RealClearPolitics?",
      "description": "40.4 to 40.6",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "40.4 to 40.6: RealClearPolitics approval rating tracker for the named candidate on August 7, 2026 at 3 p.m. ET determines whether the listed outcome is met, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the President's approval rating is between 40.4 and 40.6% at 11:00 AM ET on August 07, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on August 07, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "RealClearPolitics",
            "url": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 9.53,
      "volume_total_usd": 44.85,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 40.6,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "approval",
        "realclearpolitics",
        "trump",
        "trump approval rating"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MHBBRKS8J2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D86SF1DT56",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAPRPOTUS-26AUG07-40.8",
      "question": "Will the President's approval rating be between 40.7 and 40.9 according to RealClearPolitics?",
      "description": "40.7 to 40.9",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "40.7 to 40.9: RealClearPolitics approval rating tracker for the named candidate on August 7, 2026 at 3 p.m. ET determines whether the listed outcome is met, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the President's approval rating is between 40.7 and 40.9% at 11:00 AM ET on August 07, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on August 07, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "RealClearPolitics",
            "url": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 14.16,
      "volume_total_usd": 34.28,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 41,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "approval",
        "realclearpolitics",
        "trump",
        "trump approval rating"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MQHXMGB085",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D86SF1DT56",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAPRPOTUS-26AUG07-40.9",
      "question": "Will the President's approval rating be above 40.9 according to RealClearPolitics?",
      "description": "Above 40.9",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 40.9: RealClearPolitics approval rating tracker for the named candidate on August 7, 2026 at 3 p.m. ET determines whether the listed outcome is met, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the President's approval rating is above 40.9% at 11:00 AM ET on August 07, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on August 07, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "RealClearPolitics",
            "url": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 21.8,
      "volume_total_usd": 56.95,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 41,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "approval",
        "realclearpolitics",
        "trump",
        "trump approval rating"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-D86SF1DT56",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}