{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-LJV7GQKF92",
  "slug": "kxaprpotus-26jul24",
  "question": "Will Trump's approval rating be above 50% on July 24, 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-politics",
    "approval-rating",
    "trump",
    "2026",
    "polling-aggregate"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Trump's RealClearPolitics average approval rating on July 24, 2026. Kalshi structures the event as eight discrete percentage-point tiers, spanning below 40.2 to above 41.9. Each tier is a binary contract; the full strip functions as a continuous distribution over the approval range. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using the RealClearPolitics polling average as the authoritative source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-S1S4Q6V2B9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.63,
    "implied_probability": 0.63
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6568110XN5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LJV7GQKF92",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAPRPOTUS-26JUL24-40.2",
      "question": "Will the President's approval rating be below 40.2 according to RealClearPolitics?",
      "description": "Below 40.2",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below 40.2: RealClearPolitics approval rating for the referenced office holder on July 24, 2026, determines which outcome bracket resolves YES, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-24T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the President's approval rating is below 40.2% at 11:00 AM ET on July 24, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on July 24, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "RealClearPolitics",
            "url": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 804.71,
      "volume_total_usd": 3066.64,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 40,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "approval",
        "trump",
        "trump approval rating"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4XNNX4HSJ9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LJV7GQKF92",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAPRPOTUS-26JUL24-40.3",
      "question": "Will the President's approval rating be between 40.2 and 40.4 according to RealClearPolitics?",
      "description": "40.2 to 40.4",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "40.2 to 40.4: RealClearPolitics approval rating for the referenced office holder on July 24, 2026, determines which outcome bracket resolves YES, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-24T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the President's approval rating is between 40.2 and 40.4% at 11:00 AM ET on July 24, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on July 24, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "RealClearPolitics",
            "url": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 467.25,
      "volume_total_usd": 967.71,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 40.4,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "approval",
        "trump",
        "trump approval rating"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CJ2KPQD506",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LJV7GQKF92",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAPRPOTUS-26JUL24-40.6",
      "question": "Will the President's approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.7 according to RealClearPolitics?",
      "description": "40.5 to 40.7",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "40.5 to 40.7: RealClearPolitics approval rating for the referenced office holder on July 24, 2026, determines which outcome bracket resolves YES, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-24T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the President's approval rating is between 40.5 and 40.7% at 11:00 AM ET on July 24, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on July 24, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "RealClearPolitics",
            "url": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.32,
      "implied_probability": 0.32,
      "volume_24h_usd": 7462.31,
      "volume_total_usd": 10554.85,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 40.7,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "approval",
        "trump",
        "trump approval rating"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S1S4Q6V2B9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LJV7GQKF92",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAPRPOTUS-26JUL24-40.9",
      "question": "Will the President's approval rating be between 40.8 and 41.0 according to RealClearPolitics?",
      "description": "40.8 to 41.0",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "40.8 to 41.0: RealClearPolitics approval rating for the referenced office holder on July 24, 2026, determines which outcome bracket resolves YES, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-24T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the President's approval rating is between 40.8 and 41.0% at 11:00 AM ET on July 24, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on July 24, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "RealClearPolitics",
            "url": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.63,
      "implied_probability": 0.63,
      "volume_24h_usd": 6047.65,
      "volume_total_usd": 16778.93,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 41,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "approval",
        "trump",
        "trump approval rating"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z58CC6CCV9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LJV7GQKF92",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAPRPOTUS-26JUL24-41.2",
      "question": "Will the President's approval rating be between 41.1 and 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics?",
      "description": "41.1 to 41.3",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "41.1 to 41.3: RealClearPolitics approval rating for the referenced office holder on July 24, 2026, determines which outcome bracket resolves YES, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-24T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the President's approval rating is between 41.1 and 41.3% at 11:00 AM ET on July 24, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on July 24, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "RealClearPolitics",
            "url": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 255.5,
      "volume_total_usd": 538.34,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 41.3,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "approval",
        "trump",
        "trump approval rating"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M6R8YVC6J4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LJV7GQKF92",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAPRPOTUS-26JUL24-41.5",
      "question": "Will the President's approval rating be between 41.4 and 41.6 according to RealClearPolitics?",
      "description": "41.4 to 41.6",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "41.4 to 41.6: RealClearPolitics approval rating for the referenced office holder on July 24, 2026, determines which outcome bracket resolves YES, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-24T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the President's approval rating is between 41.4 and 41.6% at 11:00 AM ET on July 24, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on July 24, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "RealClearPolitics",
            "url": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 113.55,
      "volume_total_usd": 227.71,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 41.6,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "approval",
        "trump",
        "trump approval rating"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XLYMLX16P8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LJV7GQKF92",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAPRPOTUS-26JUL24-41.8",
      "question": "Will the President's approval rating be between 41.7 and 41.9 according to RealClearPolitics?",
      "description": "41.7 to 41.9",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "41.7 to 41.9: RealClearPolitics approval rating for the referenced office holder on July 24, 2026, determines which outcome bracket resolves YES, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-24T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the President's approval rating is between 41.7 and 41.9% at 11:00 AM ET on July 24, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on July 24, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "RealClearPolitics",
            "url": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 75.75,
      "volume_total_usd": 218.42,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 42,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "approval",
        "trump",
        "trump approval rating"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z7T6PGKHH0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LJV7GQKF92",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAPRPOTUS-26JUL24-41.9",
      "question": "Will the President's approval rating be above 41.9 according to RealClearPolitics?",
      "description": "Above 41.9",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 41.9: RealClearPolitics approval rating for the referenced office holder on July 24, 2026, determines which outcome bracket resolves YES, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-24T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the President's approval rating is above 41.9% at 11:00 AM ET on July 24, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on July 24, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "RealClearPolitics",
            "url": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "RealClearPolitics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 73.34,
      "volume_total_usd": 243.52,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 42,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "approval",
        "trump",
        "trump approval rating"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-LJV7GQKF92",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}