{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-T101LW9G50",
  "slug": "kxarrest-27jan",
  "question": "Who will be arrested before 2027?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "arrest",
    "politics",
    "2027",
    "legal-jeopardy",
    "us-political-figures",
    "criminal-prosecution"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether specific political figures will be arrested before January 2027. All 25 markets are binary outcome questions on named individuals, resolved via Kalshi staff determination based on major public reporting. No cross-platform structural difference exists here; all markets share the same binary format and resolution mechanism. Resolution occurs at the Kalshi staff determination level, with no independent legal standard defined for what constitutes a qualifying arrest.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KLJ83Y6681",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.994,
    "implied_probability": 0.994
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QCXFX71JJ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T101LW9G50",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXARREST-27JAN-GNEW",
      "question": "Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before Jan 2027?",
      "description": "Gavin Newsom",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Gavin Newsom: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named individual is arrested, based on public reporting by major news outlets including CNBC, resolves on January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Gavin Newsom is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nClarification (9/25/25): The contract states that if an individual \"surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\" the payout criterion is satisfied. To be clear, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant is sufficient to resolve a market to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CNBC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cnbc.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 69,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.07,
      "implied_probability": 0.07,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3.5000000000000004,
      "volume_total_usd": 2556.5862000000006,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gavin newsom",
        "politician",
        "us"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N2FM38JRD6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T101LW9G50",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXARREST-27JAN-LJUN",
      "question": "Will Lee Jun-seok be arrested before Jan 2027?",
      "description": "Lee Jun-seok",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Lee Jun-seok: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named individual is arrested, based on public reporting by major news outlets including CNBC, resolves on January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Lee Jun-seok is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nClarification (9/25/25): The contract states that if an individual \"surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\" the payout criterion is satisfied. To be clear, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant is sufficient to resolve a market to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CNBC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cnbc.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 69,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.4,
      "volume_total_usd": 193.7448,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "lee jun seok",
        "politician",
        "south korea"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FN6WW6SK00",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T101LW9G50",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXARREST-27JAN-BCLIN",
      "question": "Will Bill Clinton be arrested before Jan 2027?",
      "description": "Bill Clinton",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bill Clinton: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named individual is arrested, based on public reporting by major news outlets including CNBC, resolves on January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Bill Clinton is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nClarification (9/25/25): The contract states that if an individual \"surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\" the payout criterion is satisfied. To be clear, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant is sufficient to resolve a market to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CNBC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cnbc.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 69,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 13.200000000000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 3077.7920000000004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bill clinton",
        "politician",
        "us"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
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          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PDNSZ29132",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T101LW9G50",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXARREST-27JAN-AFAU",
      "question": "Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before Jan 2027?",
      "description": "Anthony Fauci",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Anthony Fauci: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named individual is arrested, based on public reporting by major news outlets including CNBC, resolves on January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Anthony Fauci is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nClarification (9/25/25): The contract states that if an individual \"surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\" the payout criterion is satisfied. To be clear, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant is sufficient to resolve a market to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CNBC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cnbc.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 69,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5940.359200000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthony fauci",
        "public official",
        "us"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
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          "bucket": null,
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L0RC02FPY7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T101LW9G50",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXARREST-27JAN-BOM",
      "question": "Will Barack Obama be arrested before Jan 2027?",
      "description": "Barack Obama",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Barack Obama: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named individual is arrested, based on public reporting by major news outlets including CNBC, resolves on January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Barack Obama is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nClarification (9/25/25): The contract states that if an individual \"surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\" the payout criterion is satisfied. To be clear, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant is sufficient to resolve a market to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CNBC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cnbc.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 69,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3.36,
      "volume_total_usd": 13152.277199999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "barack obama",
        "politician",
        "us"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TP6HLV5DD0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T101LW9G50",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXARREST-27JAN-HCLIN",
      "question": "Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before Jan 2027?",
      "description": "Hillary Clinton",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
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