{
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    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
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    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-NP3B38P916",
  "slug": "kxarrestnetanyahu-28jan01",
  "question": "Will Netanyahu be arrested by 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "israel-politics",
    "legal-proceedings",
    "2026",
    "arrest-indictment",
    "middle-east"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be arrested by three sequential deadlines: October 1, November 1, and January 1, 2027. Each later contract subsumes the prior window, creating a term structure of arrest probability across a nine-month horizon. All three resolve via Kalshi staff determination using law enforcement records from the arresting jurisdiction. The nested deadline structure allows traders to express views on timing, not just outcome.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-5YG0V1Z8B3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.1,
    "implied_probability": 0.1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0HZ79BGG76",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NP3B38P916",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXARRESTNETANYAHU-28JAN01-26OCT01",
      "question": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Oct 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Oct 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Oct 1, 2026: Law enforcement records from the jurisdiction where an arrest occurs will determine whether the named individual is arrested before January 1, 2027, with Kalshi staff making final determination by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Benjamin Netanyahu has been arrested before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor purposes of this Contract, \"arrested\" means:\nBeing taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)\nVoluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant\nBeing formally booked or processed following detention\n\nThe following scenarios would satisfy the Payout Criterion:\nBenjamin Netanyahu is handcuffed and taken to a police station\nBenjamin Netanyahu surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\nBenjamin Netanyahu is arrested in any country and this is reported by a Source Agency\nBenjamin Netanyahu is detained at an airport or border crossing and formally arrested\n\nThe following scenarios would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion:\nAn arrest warrant being issued but not executed\nBenjamin Netanyahu being briefly detained but not arrested\nBenjamin Netanyahu being questioned or interviewed without arrest\nBenjamin Netanyahu being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring without physical custody\nBenjamin Netanyahu being named in an indictment without arrest\nBenjamin Netanyahu being arrested after Oct 1, 2026\nProtective custody that is not an arrest",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
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          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 69,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.15,
      "volume_total_usd": 1829.79,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "israel",
        "legal",
        "netanyahu"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QQ37JVW4D9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NP3B38P916",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXARRESTNETANYAHU-28JAN01-26NOV01",
      "question": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Nov 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Nov 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Nov 1, 2026: Law enforcement records from the jurisdiction where an arrest occurs will determine whether the named individual is arrested before January 1, 2027, with Kalshi staff making final determination by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Benjamin Netanyahu has been arrested before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor purposes of this Contract, \"arrested\" means:\nBeing taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)\nVoluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant\nBeing formally booked or processed following detention\n\nThe following scenarios would satisfy the Payout Criterion:\nBenjamin Netanyahu is handcuffed and taken to a police station\nBenjamin Netanyahu surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\nBenjamin Netanyahu is arrested in any country and this is reported by a Source Agency\nBenjamin Netanyahu is detained at an airport or border crossing and formally arrested\n\nThe following scenarios would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion:\nAn arrest warrant being issued but not executed\nBenjamin Netanyahu being briefly detained but not arrested\nBenjamin Netanyahu being questioned or interviewed without arrest\nBenjamin Netanyahu being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring without physical custody\nBenjamin Netanyahu being named in an indictment without arrest\nBenjamin Netanyahu being arrested after Nov 1, 2026\nProtective custody that is not an arrest",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 69,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 462.71,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "arrest",
        "benjamin netanyahu arrest",
        "israel",
        "legal",
        "netanyahu"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5YG0V1Z8B3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NP3B38P916",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXARRESTNETANYAHU-28JAN01-27JAN01",
      "question": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Before Jan 1, 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jan 1, 2027: Law enforcement records from the jurisdiction where an arrest occurs will determine whether the named individual is arrested before January 1, 2027, with Kalshi staff making final determination by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Benjamin Netanyahu has been arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor purposes of this Contract, \"arrested\" means:\nBeing taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)\nVoluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant\nBeing formally booked or processed following detention\n\nThe following scenarios would satisfy the Payout Criterion:\nBenjamin Netanyahu is handcuffed and taken to a police station\nBenjamin Netanyahu surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\nBenjamin Netanyahu is arrested in any country and this is reported by a Source Agency\nBenjamin Netanyahu is detained at an airport or border crossing and formally arrested\n\nThe following scenarios would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion:\nAn arrest warrant being issued but not executed\nBenjamin Netanyahu being briefly detained but not arrested\nBenjamin Netanyahu being questioned or interviewed without arrest\nBenjamin Netanyahu being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring without physical custody\nBenjamin Netanyahu being named in an indictment without arrest\nBenjamin Netanyahu being arrested after Jan 1, 2027\nProtective custody that is not an arrest",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred",
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        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
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            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
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            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
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          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
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            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
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            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
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            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
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        "score": 69,
        "caps": [
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  "_provenance": {
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-NP3B38P916",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}