{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-K6MTX923H4",
  "slug": "kxaxp-26octcards",
  "question": "American Express cards-in-force, October 2026",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      156000000,
      156500000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 154500000,
        "prob": 95
      },
      {
        "threshold": 155000000,
        "prob": 93
      },
      {
        "threshold": 155500000,
        "prob": 89
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      {
        "threshold": 156000000,
        "prob": 63
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      {
        "threshold": 156500000,
        "prob": 34
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      {
        "threshold": 157000000,
        "prob": 19
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      {
        "threshold": 157500000,
        "prob": 15
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      {
        "threshold": 158000000,
        "prob": 12
      },
      {
        "threshold": 158500000,
        "prob": 6
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      {
        "threshold": 159000000,
        "prob": 3
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    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "american-express",
    "cards-in-force",
    "financial-metrics",
    "q3-2026",
    "consumer-finance"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track American Express total cards-in-force as reported in the Q3 2026 earnings release. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of discrete strike thresholds, ranging from 154.5 million to 159 million, each resolving independently. The implied probability curve across strikes lets traders read a synthetic distribution of expected card count. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination using the Q3 2026 quarterly earnings report as the authoritative source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-X67114G3F7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.34,
    "implied_probability": 0.34
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
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      "question": "Will American Express Company report Above 154.5 million cards-in-force (total) in Q3 2026?",
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      "close_at": "2027-02-13T04:00:00Z",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.95,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-FA3C77362B",
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      "question": "Will American Express Company report Above 155 million cards-in-force (total) in Q3 2026?",
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      "question": "Will American Express Company report Above 155.5 million cards-in-force (total) in Q3 2026?",
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "question_id": "CMX-2E51846B3B",
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      "question": "Will American Express Company report Above 156 million cards-in-force (total) in Q3 2026?",
      "description": "Above 156 million",
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "direction": "above",
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      "question_id": "CMX-41D45A90BD",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X67114G3F7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K6MTX923H4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAXP-26OCTCARDS-156500000.0",
      "question": "Will American Express Company report Above 156.5 million cards-in-force (total) in Q3 2026?",
      "description": "Above 156.5 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 156.5 million: American Express Company's Q3 2026 quarterly earnings report, published on Fiscal.ai and verified by Kalshi staff, determines total cards-in-force count by February 13, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-13T04:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-13T04:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If American Express Company reports Above 156500000.0 cards-in-force (total) in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W1L101JTH4",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXAXP-26OCTCARDS-157000000.0",
      "question": "Will American Express Company report Above 157 million cards-in-force (total) in Q3 2026?",
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      "question": "Will American Express Company report Above 157.5 million cards-in-force (total) in Q3 2026?",
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      "question": "Will American Express Company report Above 158 million cards-in-force (total) in Q3 2026?",
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      "question": "Will American Express Company report Above 158.5 million cards-in-force (total) in Q3 2026?",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 158.5 million: American Express Company's Q3 2026 quarterly earnings report, published on Fiscal.ai and verified by Kalshi staff, determines total cards-in-force count by February 13, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-13T04:00:00Z",
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      "question": "Will American Express Company report Above 159 million cards-in-force (total) in Q3 2026?",
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        "rules_raw": "If American Express Company reports Above 159000000.0 cards-in-force (total) in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
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          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 350.37,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 159000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-3E8A80526F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "american express cards",
        "amex",
        "cards",
        "q3-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-K6MTX923H4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}