{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3YB040ZX15",
  "slug": "kxaz01r-26",
  "question": "Will the Republican nominee for Arizona's 1st congressional district be determined by the 2026 election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
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    "us-politics",
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    "arizona",
    "republican-primary",
    "house-races"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Republican primary nominee for Arizona's 1st Congressional District ahead of the 2026 election cycle. Kalshi lists eight named candidates as separate binary contracts, each resolved via Kalshi staff determination against Republican Party official records. The markets are structurally parallel: each asks whether one specific candidate wins the nomination, so probabilities across contracts should sum near 100%. Resolution occurs November 3, 2026, per official party certification.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-N1YQ22MW02",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.85
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3TYSL6XBH8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3YB040ZX15",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAZ01R-26-MGRE",
      "question": "Will Matt Gress be the Republican nominee for AZ-1?",
      "description": "Matt Gress",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Matt Gress: Republican Party official records resolve whether the named candidate becomes the party's nominee for the referenced U.S. House seat by November 3, 2026, 3 p.m. ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Matt Gress wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 AZ-1 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Republican Party",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.001,
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          "status": "not_eligible",
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          "bucket": null,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B8W0ZP7Q27",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3YB040ZX15",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAZ01R-26-JDUE",
      "question": "Will Jason Duey be the Republican nominee for AZ-1?",
      "description": "Jason Duey",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Jason Duey: Republican Party official records resolve whether the named candidate becomes the party's nominee for the referenced U.S. House seat by November 3, 2026, 3 p.m. ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Jason Duey wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 AZ-1 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
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          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Republican Party",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
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      "last_price": 0.001,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4KY32WKZX7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3YB040ZX15",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAZ01R-26-JCHA",
      "question": "Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-1?",
      "description": "Joseph Chaplik",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Joseph Chaplik: Republican Party official records resolve whether the named candidate becomes the party's nominee for the referenced U.S. House seat by November 3, 2026, 3 p.m. ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Joseph Chaplik wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 AZ-1 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Republican Party",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.6127,
      "volume_total_usd": 2195.776,
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NCHHRS0GG6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3YB040ZX15",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAZ01R-26-GSWO",
      "question": "Will Gina Swoboda be the Republican nominee for AZ-1?",
      "description": "Gina Swoboda",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Gina Swoboda: Republican Party official records resolve whether the named candidate becomes the party's nominee for the referenced U.S. House seat by November 3, 2026, 3 p.m. ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Gina Swoboda wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 AZ-1 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
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          {
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Republican Party",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4.636,
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
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          "bucket": null,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KFMQCT9F10",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3YB040ZX15",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAZ01R-26-MUGE",
      "question": "Will Michelle Ugenti-Rita be the Republican nominee for AZ-1?",
      "description": "Michelle Ugenti-Rita",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Michelle Ugenti-Rita: Republican Party official records resolve whether the named candidate becomes the party's nominee for the referenced U.S. House seat by November 3, 2026, 3 p.m. ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Michelle Ugenti-Rita wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 AZ-1 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
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        "source_of_record": "Republican Party",
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        "score": 90,
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4CZ0XVCLH3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3YB040ZX15",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAZ01R-26-TGRA",
      "question": "Will Todd Graham be the Republican nominee for AZ-1?",
      "description": "Todd Graham",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Todd Graham: Republican Party official records resolve whether the named candidate becomes the party's nominee for the referenced U.S. House seat by November 3, 2026, 3 p.m. ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
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      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If Todd Graham wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 AZ-1 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
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        "source_of_record": "Republican Party",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3YB040ZX15",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXAZ01R-26-KLAK",
      "question": "Will Kari Lake be the Republican nominee for AZ-1?",
      "description": "Kari Lake",
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      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kari Lake: Republican Party official records resolve whether the named candidate becomes the party's nominee for the referenced U.S. House seat by November 3, 2026, 3 p.m. ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Kari Lake wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 AZ-1 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
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          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Republican Party",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3YB040ZX15",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAZ01R-26-JFEE",
      "question": "Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-1?",
      "description": "Jay Feely",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Jay Feely: Republican Party official records resolve whether the named candidate becomes the party's nominee for the referenced U.S. House seat by November 3, 2026, 3 p.m. ET.",
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        "source": "Republican Party",
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            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
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        "source_of_record": "Republican Party",
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