{
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    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZWR7LQF932",
  "slug": "kxazprimary-08d26",
  "question": "Will the Democratic nominee for Arizona's 8th congressional district be determined by the 2026 general election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "arizona-politics",
    "2028-election",
    "democratic-primary",
    "house-race",
    "nominee-selection"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Democratic primary outcome for Arizona's 8th Congressional District. Four candidate-specific binary contracts cover Jillian Barfield, Maria Flores, Bernadette Greene Placentia, and Raymond Keeler. The markets are structurally parallel: each prices one candidate's nomination probability independently, so implied probabilities need not sum to 100. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination against the official Democratic Party nominee certification, expected by November 3, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-B8ZKQYVBZ2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.96,
    "implied_probability": 0.96
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JSY1QX99B8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZWR7LQF932",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAZPRIMARY-08D26-JBAR",
      "question": "Will Jillian Barfield be the Democratic nominee for AZ-08?",
      "description": "Jillian Barfield",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Jillian Barfield: The Democratic Party's official nominee for the referenced congressional seat, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by November 3, 2026, resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Jillian Barfield wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 AZ-08 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "Republican Party",
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            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 34.08,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
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        "nominee"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1D89PD0766",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZWR7LQF932",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAZPRIMARY-08D26-MFLO",
      "question": "Will Maria Flores be the Democratic nominee for AZ-08?",
      "description": "Maria Flores",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Maria Flores: The Democratic Party's official nominee for the referenced congressional seat, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by November 3, 2026, resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Maria Flores wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 AZ-08 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
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            "name": "Republican Party",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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      "volume_total_usd": 47.74,
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      "tags": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZWR7LQF932",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAZPRIMARY-08D26-BPLA",
      "question": "Will Bernadette Greene Placentia be the Democratic nominee for AZ-08?",
      "description": "Bernadette Greene Placentia",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bernadette Greene Placentia: The Democratic Party's official nominee for the referenced congressional seat, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by November 3, 2026, resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If Bernadette Greene Placentia wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 AZ-08 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "source": "Republican Party",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.96,
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N4J6NZQG79",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZWR7LQF932",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXAZPRIMARY-08D26-RKEE",
      "question": "Will Raymond Keeler be the Democratic nominee for AZ-08?",
      "description": "Raymond Keeler",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Raymond Keeler: The Democratic Party's official nominee for the referenced congressional seat, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by November 3, 2026, resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If Raymond Keeler wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 AZ-08 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "source": "Republican Party",
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      "tags": [
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