{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-33JMMK5181",
  "slug": "kxb200ms-26aug",
  "question": "The monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 in August 2026",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      6.5,
      7
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 3,
        "prob": 92
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.5,
        "prob": 93
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.5,
        "prob": 97
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 83
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.5,
        "prob": 60
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6,
        "prob": 59
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6.5,
        "prob": 56
      },
      {
        "threshold": 7,
        "prob": 33
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "nvidia-b200",
    "compute-pricing",
    "august-2026",
    "hardware-economics",
    "gpu-market"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the monthly average hourly compute price of NVIDIA's B200 GPU in August 2026. Nine Kalshi binary strikes span $3.00 to $7.00 in $0.50 increments, collectively implying a market-derived price distribution rather than a single directional bet. Together the strikes function as a synthetic density curve over the rate level. Kalshi staff resolve each contract using Ornn dashboard data, with settlement due by September 8, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-FFQN4M3WT6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.36,
    "implied_probability": 0.36
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZSWSLPQHB1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-33JMMK5181",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-26AUG-3.00",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $3.00 in August 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.00: Kalshi staff determination of monthly average compute price data from Ornn dashboard, resolved by September 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $3 in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in August 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.92,
      "implied_probability": 0.92,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1794.92,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-3B90386985",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "b200",
        "compute",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia b200 average",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N84L93ZZ46",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-33JMMK5181",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-26AUG-3.50",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $3.50 in August 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.50: Kalshi staff determination of monthly average compute price data from Ornn dashboard, resolved by September 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $3.5 in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in August 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 60.76,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-2FF4BD9CAA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "b200",
        "compute",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia b200 average",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1YGP81WK31",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-33JMMK5181",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-26AUG-4.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $4.00 in August 2026?",
      "description": "Above $4.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.00: Kalshi staff determination of monthly average compute price data from Ornn dashboard, resolved by September 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $4 in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in August 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 601.72,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-D0FA2A9621",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "b200",
        "compute",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia b200 average",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C5B3HJPZ78",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-33JMMK5181",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-26AUG-4.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $4.50 in August 2026?",
      "description": "Above $4.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.50: Kalshi staff determination of monthly average compute price data from Ornn dashboard, resolved by September 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $4.5 in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in August 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 428.6236,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-1E489F733F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "b200",
        "compute",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia b200 average",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HPJSP9R4Z3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-33JMMK5181",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-26AUG-5.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $5.00 in August 2026?",
      "description": "Above $5.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.00: Kalshi staff determination of monthly average compute price data from Ornn dashboard, resolved by September 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $5 in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in August 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.91,
      "implied_probability": 0.91,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 439.0477,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": "CMX-87E7D97434",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "b200",
        "compute",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia b200 average",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DGGFHWHVB6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-33JMMK5181",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-26AUG-5.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $5.50 in August 2026?",
      "description": "Above $5.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.50: Kalshi staff determination of monthly average compute price data from Ornn dashboard, resolved by September 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $5.5 in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in August 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.83,
      "implied_probability": 0.83,
      "volume_24h_usd": 27.389999999999997,
      "volume_total_usd": 1156.3808999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-1A6B2A85F1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "b200",
        "compute",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia b200 average",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-09Q6P5KW30",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-33JMMK5181",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-26AUG-6.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $6.00 in August 2026?",
      "description": "Above $6.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $6.00: Kalshi staff determination of monthly average compute price data from Ornn dashboard, resolved by September 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $6 in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in August 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.77,
      "implied_probability": 0.77,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3.85,
      "volume_total_usd": 351.1354,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6,
      "question_id": "CMX-A018CEBF8C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "b200",
        "compute",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia b200 average",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y2P1FMMC61",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-33JMMK5181",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-26AUG-6.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $6.50 in August 2026?",
      "description": "Above $6.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $6.50: Kalshi staff determination of monthly average compute price data from Ornn dashboard, resolved by September 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $6.5 in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in August 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.55,
      "implied_probability": 0.55,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5132.0555,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-E2C3CB593F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "b200",
        "compute",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia b200 average",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FFQN4M3WT6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-33JMMK5181",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-26AUG-7.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $7.00 in August 2026?",
      "description": "Above $7.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $7.00: Kalshi staff determination of monthly average compute price data from Ornn dashboard, resolved by September 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $7 in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in August 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
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