{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-1LFL121Z82",
  "slug": "kxb200ms-26dec",
  "question": "The monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 in December 2026",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      5.5,
      6
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 3,
        "prob": 82
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.5,
        "prob": 80
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 73
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.5,
        "prob": 69
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 57
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.5,
        "prob": 59
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6,
        "prob": 42
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6.5,
        "prob": 46
      },
      {
        "threshold": 7,
        "prob": 18
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "nvidia-b200",
    "gpu-pricing",
    "hardware-compute",
    "financial-metric",
    "december-2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the monthly average hourly compute price of NVIDIA's B200 GPU accelerator in December 2026. Kalshi structures the event as eight discrete strike thresholds spanning $3.00 to $7.00 per hour, enabling traders to construct an implied price distribution across that range. Together the strikes function as a synthetic term structure for spot GPU rental rates. Kalshi staff determination references Ornn as the authoritative pricing source; readers should confirm Ornn's methodology for averaging spot versus contract rates before trading.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-FKJCXM43G5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.42,
    "implied_probability": 0.42
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MD13RY07S8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1LFL121Z82",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-26DEC-3.00",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $3.00 in December 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.00: Kalshi staff determination of the named semiconductor accelerator's monthly average compute price from Ornn dashboard data, resolved by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $3 in December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in December 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.82,
      "implied_probability": 0.82,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1572.76,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-8802019E81",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "b200",
        "compute",
        "december-2026",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia b200 average",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V4KGJGPZ80",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1LFL121Z82",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-26DEC-3.50",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $3.50 in December 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.50: Kalshi staff determination of the named semiconductor accelerator's monthly average compute price from Ornn dashboard data, resolved by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $3.5 in December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in December 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.8,
      "implied_probability": 0.8,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 52.800000000000004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-8C9F8E89DF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "b200",
        "compute",
        "december-2026",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia b200 average",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0MFVYXMK78",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1LFL121Z82",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-26DEC-4.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $4.00 in December 2026?",
      "description": "Above $4.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.00: Kalshi staff determination of the named semiconductor accelerator's monthly average compute price from Ornn dashboard data, resolved by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $4 in December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in December 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.73,
      "implied_probability": 0.73,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 37.23,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-11A15560DE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "b200",
        "compute",
        "december-2026",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia b200 average",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RFTPRZJSD7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1LFL121Z82",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-26DEC-4.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $4.50 in December 2026?",
      "description": "Above $4.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.50: Kalshi staff determination of the named semiconductor accelerator's monthly average compute price from Ornn dashboard data, resolved by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $4.5 in December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in December 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.69,
      "implied_probability": 0.69,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 166.29,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-D4AB4BC285",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "b200",
        "compute",
        "december-2026",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia b200 average",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JN5KFPG8W1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1LFL121Z82",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-26DEC-5.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $5.00 in December 2026?",
      "description": "Above $5.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.00: Kalshi staff determination of the named semiconductor accelerator's monthly average compute price from Ornn dashboard data, resolved by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $5 in December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in December 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.57,
      "implied_probability": 0.57,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1042.5357,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": "CMX-6EDB20A6F2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "b200",
        "compute",
        "december-2026",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia b200 average",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T3T69QB8R1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1LFL121Z82",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-26DEC-5.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $5.50 in December 2026?",
      "description": "Above $5.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.50: Kalshi staff determination of the named semiconductor accelerator's monthly average compute price from Ornn dashboard data, resolved by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $5.5 in December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in December 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.59,
      "implied_probability": 0.59,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 66.6759,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-3E4B202E19",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "b200",
        "compute",
        "december-2026",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia b200 average",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FKJCXM43G5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1LFL121Z82",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-26DEC-6.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $6.00 in December 2026?",
      "description": "Above $6.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $6.00: Kalshi staff determination of the named semiconductor accelerator's monthly average compute price from Ornn dashboard data, resolved by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $6 in December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in December 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.42,
      "implied_probability": 0.42,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2502.6582,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6,
      "question_id": "CMX-E0BBC3C77F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "b200",
        "compute",
        "december-2026",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia b200 average",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J3F04VX460",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1LFL121Z82",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-26DEC-6.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $6.50 in December 2026?",
      "description": "Above $6.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $6.50: Kalshi staff determination of the named semiconductor accelerator's monthly average compute price from Ornn dashboard data, resolved by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $6.5 in December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in December 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.46,
      "implied_probability": 0.46,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 99.41060000000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-F463DD3F37",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "b200",
        "compute",
        "december-2026",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia b200 average",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4ZMYZPR1L5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1LFL121Z82",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-26DEC-7.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $7.00 in December 2026?",
      "description": "Above $7.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $7.00: Kalshi staff determination of the named semiconductor accelerator's monthly average compute price from Ornn dashboard data, resolved by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $7 in December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in December 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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