{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-D7FTMK9ZT7",
  "slug": "kxb200ms-27mar",
  "question": "The monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 in March 2027",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      5.5,
      6
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 3,
        "prob": 81
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.5,
        "prob": 77
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 77
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.5,
        "prob": 68
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 57
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.5,
        "prob": 52
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6,
        "prob": 49
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6.5,
        "prob": 40
      },
      {
        "threshold": 7,
        "prob": 39
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "nvidia-b200",
    "gpu-pricing",
    "hardware-cost",
    "march-2027",
    "compute-economics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the monthly average hourly compute price of the NVIDIA B200 GPU in March 2027. Nine Kalshi strike thresholds span $3.00 to $7.00, forming an implied probability distribution over the rate level. The strike structure prices discrete price ceilings, not a single binary outcome. Kalshi staff determination governs resolution across all tranches.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-9FG8KYPJD9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.5,
    "implied_probability": 0.5
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DFBPWN0VL7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D7FTMK9ZT7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-27MAR-3.00",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $3.00 in March 2027?",
      "description": "Above $3.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.00: Kalshi staff determination based on the named product's monthly average compute price reported on the referenced pricing dashboard as of April 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $3 in March 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in March 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.82,
      "implied_probability": 0.82,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4603.471799999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-F31D7330E7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "b200",
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia b200 compute",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LCKHWS3NC6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D7FTMK9ZT7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-27MAR-3.50",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $3.50 in March 2027?",
      "description": "Above $3.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3.50: Kalshi staff determination based on the named product's monthly average compute price reported on the referenced pricing dashboard as of April 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $3.5 in March 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in March 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.77,
      "implied_probability": 0.77,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 545.9300000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-5245C17A13",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "b200",
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia b200 compute",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-80JN7Y2VM7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D7FTMK9ZT7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-27MAR-4.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $4.00 in March 2027?",
      "description": "Above $4.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.00: Kalshi staff determination based on the named product's monthly average compute price reported on the referenced pricing dashboard as of April 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $4 in March 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in March 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.77,
      "implied_probability": 0.77,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 97.79,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-F0DFFE70C7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "b200",
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia b200 compute",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9W3CC26B43",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D7FTMK9ZT7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-27MAR-4.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $4.50 in March 2027?",
      "description": "Above $4.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $4.50: Kalshi staff determination based on the named product's monthly average compute price reported on the referenced pricing dashboard as of April 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $4.5 in March 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in March 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.68,
      "implied_probability": 0.68,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 77.52000000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-96FF29776D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "b200",
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia b200 compute",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BGT11JXZ50",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D7FTMK9ZT7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-27MAR-5.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $5.00 in March 2027?",
      "description": "Above $5.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.00: Kalshi staff determination based on the named product's monthly average compute price reported on the referenced pricing dashboard as of April 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $5 in March 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in March 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.57,
      "implied_probability": 0.57,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 513.4788,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": "CMX-58A1574D7B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "b200",
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia b200 compute",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NPQV2CFB49",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D7FTMK9ZT7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-27MAR-5.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $5.50 in March 2027?",
      "description": "Above $5.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $5.50: Kalshi staff determination based on the named product's monthly average compute price reported on the referenced pricing dashboard as of April 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $5.5 in March 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in March 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.52,
      "implied_probability": 0.52,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 309.40000000000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-D8DAB42822",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "b200",
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia b200 compute",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9FG8KYPJD9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D7FTMK9ZT7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-27MAR-6.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $6.00 in March 2027?",
      "description": "Above $6.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $6.00: Kalshi staff determination based on the named product's monthly average compute price reported on the referenced pricing dashboard as of April 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $6 in March 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in March 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.5,
      "implied_probability": 0.5,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1065.985,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6,
      "question_id": "CMX-BFB0369E16",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "b200",
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia b200 compute",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WC34L3XWL9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D7FTMK9ZT7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-27MAR-6.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $6.50 in March 2027?",
      "description": "Above $6.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $6.50: Kalshi staff determination based on the named product's monthly average compute price reported on the referenced pricing dashboard as of April 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $6.5 in March 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in March 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.49,
      "implied_probability": 0.49,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 885.8367,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-14C2FC3ABE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "b200",
        "compute",
        "gpu",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia b200 compute",
        "pricing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MYNHW1KTX1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D7FTMK9ZT7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXB200MS-27MAR-7.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $7.00 in March 2027?",
      "description": "Above $7.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $7.00: Kalshi staff determination based on the named product's monthly average compute price reported on the referenced pricing dashboard as of April 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $7 in March 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour in March 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
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