{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-452NHH76X2",
  "slug": "kxbankruptcy-26",
  "question": "Will more than X companies go bankrupt this year?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "corporate-bankruptcies",
    "economic-indicators",
    "us-economy",
    "quantitative-prediction",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the annual count of U.S. corporate bankruptcies for 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of binary strike thresholds, ranging from 550 to 1,200 filings. Each strike resolves independently via Kalshi staff determination. The authoritative source is Standard & Poor's disclosure data, with final resolution expected by March 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-PCMNTVRNT0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.83,
    "implied_probability": 0.83,
    "as_of": "2026-08-05T10:00:55.934Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ML5KX4L7C7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-452NHH76X2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBANKRUPTCY-26-550",
      "question": "How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year?",
      "description": "Above 550",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 550: The number of corporate bankruptcies in the referenced year, as reported by Standard & Poor's disclosure database by March 13, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-10T13:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-13T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of corporate bankruptcies is greater than 550, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Standard & Poor's",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://disclosure.spglobal.com/sri/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Standard & Poor's",
            "url": "https://disclosure.spglobal.com/sri/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Standard & Poor's",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-19T20:01:05.415Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 71.25,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 550,
      "question_id": "CMX-BB9C144B0E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bankruptcy",
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K97VB53018",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-452NHH76X2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBANKRUPTCY-26-600",
      "question": "How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year?",
      "description": "Above 600",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 600: The number of corporate bankruptcies in the referenced year, as reported by Standard & Poor's disclosure database by March 13, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-10T13:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-13T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the number of corporate bankruptcies is greater than 600, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Standard & Poor's",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://disclosure.spglobal.com/sri/",
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        "source_of_record": "Standard & Poor's",
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        "grade": "C",
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      "last_price": 0.98,
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      "question_id": "CMX-CB9C85F06D",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TPZNFJTMC0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-452NHH76X2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBANKRUPTCY-26-650",
      "question": "How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year?",
      "description": "Above 650",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 650: The number of corporate bankruptcies in the referenced year, as reported by Standard & Poor's disclosure database by March 13, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-10T13:00:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of corporate bankruptcies is greater than 650, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Standard & Poor's",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://disclosure.spglobal.com/sri/",
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          {
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        "source_of_record": "Standard & Poor's",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.92,
      "implied_probability": 0.92,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-25T11:01:09.506Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "question_id": "CMX-3FB4D1E463",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PCMNTVRNT0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-452NHH76X2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBANKRUPTCY-26-750",
      "question": "How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year?",
      "description": "Above 750",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 750: The number of corporate bankruptcies in the referenced year, as reported by Standard & Poor's disclosure database by March 13, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-10T13:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-13T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the number of corporate bankruptcies is greater than 750, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://disclosure.spglobal.com/sri/",
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          {
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        "source_of_record": "Standard & Poor's",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.83,
      "implied_probability": 0.83,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-05T10:00:55.934Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5116.252799999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 750,
      "question_id": "CMX-97A2586D9C",
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      "tags": [
        "bankruptcy",
        "corporate",
        "corporate bankruptcies",
        "insolvency"
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        {
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PMC0K09ZJ3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-452NHH76X2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBANKRUPTCY-26-800",
      "question": "How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year?",
      "description": "Above 800",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 800: The number of corporate bankruptcies in the referenced year, as reported by Standard & Poor's disclosure database by March 13, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-10T13:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-13T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of corporate bankruptcies is greater than 800, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Standard & Poor's",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://disclosure.spglobal.com/sri/",
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          {
            "name": "Standard & Poor's",
            "url": "https://disclosure.spglobal.com/sri/",
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        ],
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      "last_price": 0.63,
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      "question_id": "CMX-99D0450AFB",
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        "insolvency"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1M28NBQN24",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-452NHH76X2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBANKRUPTCY-26-850",
      "question": "How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year?",
      "description": "Above 850",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 850: The number of corporate bankruptcies in the referenced year, as reported by Standard & Poor's disclosure database by March 13, 2027, determines the outcome.",
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        "source": "Standard & Poor's",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://disclosure.spglobal.com/sri/",
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          {
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      "last_price": 0.53,
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      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
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      "threshold": 850,
      "question_id": "CMX-97984267E0",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CX2679FFY8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-452NHH76X2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBANKRUPTCY-26-900",
      "question": "How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year?",
      "description": "Above 900",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 900: The number of corporate bankruptcies in the referenced year, as reported by Standard & Poor's disclosure database by March 13, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-10T13:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-13T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of corporate bankruptcies is greater than 900, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Standard & Poor's",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://disclosure.spglobal.com/sri/",
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          {
            "name": "Standard & Poor's",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Standard & Poor's",
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        "score": 84,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.58,
      "implied_probability": 0.58,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-14T20:01:04.604Z",
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      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 900,
      "question_id": "CMX-B057EBDD6E",
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        "corporate bankruptcies",
        "insolvency"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9P7X11X2S1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-452NHH76X2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBANKRUPTCY-26-950",
      "question": "How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year?",
      "description": "Above 950",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 950: The number of corporate bankruptcies in the referenced year, as reported by Standard & Poor's disclosure database by March 13, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-10T13:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-13T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of corporate bankruptcies is greater than 950, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Standard & Poor's",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://disclosure.spglobal.com/sri/",
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          {
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Standard & Poor's",
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      "last_price": 0.5,
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      "price_as_of": "2026-08-14T20:01:04.604Z",
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      "threshold": 950,
      "question_id": "CMX-F5F23522D1",
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SX9Q7T7W10",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-452NHH76X2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBANKRUPTCY-26-1000",
      "question": "How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year?",
      "description": "Above 1,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1,000: The number of corporate bankruptcies in the referenced year, as reported by Standard & Poor's disclosure database by March 13, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-10T13:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-13T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of corporate bankruptcies is greater than 1,000, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Standard & Poor's",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://disclosure.spglobal.com/sri/",
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          {
            "name": "Standard & Poor's",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Standard & Poor's",
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