{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-P3HZWM68C0",
  "slug": "kxbarrels-26",
  "question": "Will U.S. oil production per day in 2026 reach a specified level?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-energy",
    "oil-production",
    "commodities",
    "2026",
    "economic-data"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track full-year 2026 U.S. crude oil production, resolved in early 2027. Kalshi structures the event as discrete strike thresholds ranging from 13.75M to 14.40M bpd, letting traders price production level exceedance probabilities. Kalshi staff determination will rely on official U.S. production data from the Energy Information Administration. The spread across strikes reveals market-implied probability mass over the 13.75M-to-14.40M bpd production range.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-1NJGQ0ZH97",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.98,
    "implied_probability": 0.98,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N0BPD0BQP6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P3HZWM68C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBARRELS-26-13.75",
      "question": "How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?",
      "description": "At least 13.75M bpd",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 13.75M bpd: Kalshi staff will determine the outcome using official US production data published by the referenced institution, resolving January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-03T16:52:51Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the U.S. produces at least 13.75 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, 1,000 thousand barrels per day = 1.00M bpd.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "EIA",
            "url": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "EIA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3796.62,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 13.75,
      "question_id": "CMX-B3252083A3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bpd",
        "energy",
        "oil",
        "oil production",
        "production"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "commodity_prices"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HGN8Q67LV6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P3HZWM68C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBARRELS-26-13.80",
      "question": "How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?",
      "description": "At least 13.80M bpd",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 13.80M bpd: Kalshi staff will determine the outcome using official US production data published by the referenced institution, resolving January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-03T16:52:51Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the U.S. produces at least 13.80 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, 1,000 thousand barrels per day = 1.00M bpd.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "EIA",
            "url": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "EIA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2221.73,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 13.8,
      "question_id": "CMX-5CC11BAFBA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bpd",
        "energy",
        "oil",
        "oil production",
        "production"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "commodity_prices"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1NJGQ0ZH97",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P3HZWM68C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBARRELS-26-13.90",
      "question": "How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?",
      "description": "At least 13.90M bpd",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 13.90M bpd: Kalshi staff will determine the outcome using official US production data published by the referenced institution, resolving January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-03T16:52:51Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the U.S. produces at least 13.90 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, 1,000 thousand barrels per day = 1.00M bpd.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "EIA",
            "url": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "EIA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 8372.71,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 13.9,
      "question_id": "CMX-A0639EE613",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bpd",
        "energy",
        "oil",
        "oil production",
        "production"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "commodity_prices"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JNGQYQ6VD7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P3HZWM68C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBARRELS-26-14.00",
      "question": "How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?",
      "description": "At least 14.00M bpd",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 14.00M bpd: Kalshi staff will determine the outcome using official US production data published by the referenced institution, resolving January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the U.S. produces at least 14.00 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, 1,000 thousand barrels per day = 1.00M bpd.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "EIA",
            "url": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "EIA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 9293.85,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 14,
      "question_id": "CMX-4BDABBA126",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bpd",
        "energy",
        "oil",
        "oil production",
        "production"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "commodity_prices"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D908LNKLD4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P3HZWM68C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBARRELS-26-14.10",
      "question": "How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?",
      "description": "At least 14.10M bpd",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 14.10M bpd: Kalshi staff will determine the outcome using official US production data published by the referenced institution, resolving January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the U.S. produces at least 14.10 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, 1,000 thousand barrels per day = 1.00M bpd.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "EIA",
            "url": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "EIA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.58,
      "implied_probability": 0.58,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2968.7822,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 14.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-4F808AB03A",
      "also_on": null,
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-P3HZWM68C0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}