{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-P3HZWM68C0",
  "slug": "kxbarrels-26",
  "question": "Will U.S. oil production per day in 2026 reach a specified level?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "energy-production",
    "us-economy",
    "oil-commodities",
    "annual-aggregate",
    "2026-metric"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track average U.S. crude oil production in barrels per day for full-year 2026. Kalshi structures the event as seven binary strike thresholds, ranging from 13.75M to 14.40M bpd. The implied distribution lets traders isolate probability mass at each production level. Resolution is via Kalshi staff determination using U.S. Energy Information Administration reported output data.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-N0BPD0BQP6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.98,
    "implied_probability": 0.98
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N0BPD0BQP6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P3HZWM68C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBARRELS-26-13.75",
      "question": "How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?",
      "description": "At least 13.75M bpd",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 13.75M bpd: US oil production for the specified year, measured in barrels per day, resolves via Kalshi staff determination by January 7, 2027, using official government production data.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the U.S. produces at least 13.75 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, 1,000 thousand barrels per day = 1.00M bpd.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "EIA",
            "url": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "EIA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3796.618,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 13.75,
      "question_id": "CMX-B3252083A3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bpd",
        "energy",
        "oil",
        "oil production",
        "production"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HGN8Q67LV6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P3HZWM68C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBARRELS-26-13.80",
      "question": "How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?",
      "description": "At least 13.80M bpd",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 13.80M bpd: US oil production for the specified year, measured in barrels per day, resolves via Kalshi staff determination by January 7, 2027, using official government production data.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the U.S. produces at least 13.80 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, 1,000 thousand barrels per day = 1.00M bpd.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "EIA",
            "url": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "EIA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2221.7286,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 13.8,
      "question_id": "CMX-5CC11BAFBA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bpd",
        "energy",
        "oil",
        "oil production",
        "production"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1NJGQ0ZH97",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P3HZWM68C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBARRELS-26-13.90",
      "question": "How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?",
      "description": "At least 13.90M bpd",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 13.90M bpd: US oil production for the specified year, measured in barrels per day, resolves via Kalshi staff determination by January 7, 2027, using official government production data.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the U.S. produces at least 13.90 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, 1,000 thousand barrels per day = 1.00M bpd.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "EIA",
            "url": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "EIA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 8372.7084,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 13.9,
      "question_id": "CMX-A0639EE613",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bpd",
        "energy",
        "oil",
        "oil production",
        "production"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JNGQYQ6VD7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P3HZWM68C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBARRELS-26-14.00",
      "question": "How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?",
      "description": "At least 14.00M bpd",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 14.00M bpd: US oil production for the specified year, measured in barrels per day, resolves via Kalshi staff determination by January 7, 2027, using official government production data.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the U.S. produces at least 14.00 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, 1,000 thousand barrels per day = 1.00M bpd.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "EIA",
            "url": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "EIA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.79,
      "implied_probability": 0.79,
      "volume_24h_usd": 399.74,
      "volume_total_usd": 6100.1193,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 14,
      "question_id": "CMX-4BDABBA126",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bpd",
        "energy",
        "oil",
        "oil production",
        "production"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D908LNKLD4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P3HZWM68C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBARRELS-26-14.10",
      "question": "How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?",
      "description": "At least 14.10M bpd",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 14.10M bpd: US oil production for the specified year, measured in barrels per day, resolves via Kalshi staff determination by January 7, 2027, using official government production data.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the U.S. produces at least 14.10 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, 1,000 thousand barrels per day = 1.00M bpd.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "EIA",
            "url": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "EIA",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.54,
      "implied_probability": 0.54,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2235.0114,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 14.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-4F808AB03A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bpd",
        "energy",
        "oil",
        "oil production",
        "production"
      ],
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          {
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            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
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            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": "CMX-49CF743C26",
      "also_on": null,
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        "production"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          ],
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          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KDN7SDGS11",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P3HZWM68C0",
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      "question": "How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1071.6642,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 14.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-356CF6ED16",
      "also_on": null,
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        "energy",
        "oil",
        "oil production",
        "production"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "screen_version": "v1",
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          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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  "resolution_log": [],
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-P3HZWM68C0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}