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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-M80F0W2DD3",
  "slug": "kxbougainvilleind",
  "question": "Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
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    "papua-new-guinea",
    "bougainville",
    "independence",
    "political-sovereignty",
    "2027"
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  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "Both markets track Papua New Guinea's formal ratification of Bougainville's independence. The 2027 contract closes first; the 2028 contract extends the deadline by one year. Both resolve via Kalshi staff determination against major newswire reporting. The tiered structure prices the probability of ratification at two discrete time horizons.",
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-5DHGYRVR74",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.72
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "question": "Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Before Jan 1, 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Before Jan 1, 2027: The named country's ratification of the referenced region's independence status, as reported by The Washington Post, determines the outcome by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Papua New Guinea has agreed to or announced the ratification of Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAn agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves formal signing of treaties, parliamentary approval with binding effect, official ratification, formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority, official statements by authorized ministers, official press releases, formal declarations during government proceedings, or official statements to international bodies. Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory qualify. Preliminary discussions, conditional agreements contingent on circumstances, opposition party statements, leaked documents, think-tank recommendations, general aspirations without specific commitment, draft legislation without approval, and regional actions (unless specified) do NOT qualify. Retraction of previously announced commitments also does not satisfy the criterion.",
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      "volume_total_usd": 1383.12,
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      "question": "Will Papua New Guinea the ratification of Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2028?",
      "description": "Before Jan 1, 2028",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jan 1, 2028: The named country's ratification of the referenced region's independence status, as reported by The Washington Post, determines the outcome by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
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