{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRRTJHQJ11",
  "slug": "kxbrazilsenate-26oct04",
  "question": "Will the Brazilian Senate election in 2026 result in a victory for the incumbent coalition?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "brazil-politics",
    "senate-elections",
    "2026-election",
    "political-parties",
    "latin-america"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track party-level outcomes in Brazil's October 2026 Senate election. Kalshi lists five separate binary contracts, one per party, allowing traders to price each party's win probability independently. All five resolve via Kalshi staff determination against the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court's official proclamation. No cross-platform structural contrast applies here; all markets share the same mechanism and format.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KNRDHDNDK8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.86,
    "implied_probability": 0.86
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KNRDHDNDK8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRRTJHQJ11",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBRAZILSENATE-26OCT04-PL",
      "question": "Will Liberal Party win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election?",
      "description": "Liberal Party",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Liberal Party: The Brazilian Superior Electoral Court's official proclamation of Senate election results, published by October 4, 2026, resolves which party won the most seats.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Liberal Party wins 2026 Brazilian Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For a parliamentary election, the winner is the party or formal pre-election coalition that wins the most seats in the specified chamber, even if they do not form the government. If there is a tie for the most seats, the winner is the party that enters government; if that doesn't resolve the tie, the winner is the party with the higher share of the vote. If an election is postponed, the contract remains open until the new date, for a maximum of two years. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.\n\n\nPartial elections: Only seats/positions actually contested in the specified election count\n\n\nIf a formal pre-election coalition wins the most seats, the contract for that coalition resolves to Yes, while contracts for its individual member parties (if also listed) resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.86,
      "implied_probability": 0.86,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7679.6022,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "brazil",
        "election",
        "liberal party",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HVYX9Q4KH5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRRTJHQJ11",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBRAZILSENATE-26OCT04-PSD",
      "question": "Will Social Democratic Party win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election?",
      "description": "Social Democratic Party",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Social Democratic Party: The Brazilian Superior Electoral Court's official proclamation of Senate election results, published by October 4, 2026, resolves which party won the most seats.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Social Democratic Party wins 2026 Brazilian Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For a parliamentary election, the winner is the party or formal pre-election coalition that wins the most seats in the specified chamber, even if they do not form the government. If there is a tie for the most seats, the winner is the party that enters government; if that doesn't resolve the tie, the winner is the party with the higher share of the vote. If an election is postponed, the contract remains open until the new date, for a maximum of two years. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.\n\n\nPartial elections: Only seats/positions actually contested in the specified election count\n\n\nIf a formal pre-election coalition wins the most seats, the contract for that coalition resolves to Yes, while contracts for its individual member parties (if also listed) resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
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          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "brazil",
        "election",
        "senate",
        "social democratic party"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-37WDFJD8S2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRRTJHQJ11",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBRAZILSENATE-26OCT04-PT",
      "question": "Will Workers' Party win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election?",
      "description": "Workers' Party",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Workers' Party: The Brazilian Superior Electoral Court's official proclamation of Senate election results, published by October 4, 2026, resolves which party won the most seats.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Workers' Party wins 2026 Brazilian Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For a parliamentary election, the winner is the party or formal pre-election coalition that wins the most seats in the specified chamber, even if they do not form the government. If there is a tie for the most seats, the winner is the party that enters government; if that doesn't resolve the tie, the winner is the party with the higher share of the vote. If an election is postponed, the contract remains open until the new date, for a maximum of two years. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.\n\n\nPartial elections: Only seats/positions actually contested in the specified election count\n\n\nIf a formal pre-election coalition wins the most seats, the contract for that coalition resolves to Yes, while contracts for its individual member parties (if also listed) resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
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            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.066,
      "implied_probability": 0.066,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2.838,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "brazil",
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        "senate",
        "workers party",
        "workers' party"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QCNCBV5CW3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRRTJHQJ11",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBRAZILSENATE-26OCT04-MDB",
      "question": "Will Brazilian Democratic Movement win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election?",
      "description": "Brazilian Democratic Movement",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Brazilian Democratic Movement: The Brazilian Superior Electoral Court's official proclamation of Senate election results, published by October 4, 2026, resolves which party won the most seats.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Brazilian Democratic Movement wins 2026 Brazilian Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For a parliamentary election, the winner is the party or formal pre-election coalition that wins the most seats in the specified chamber, even if they do not form the government. If there is a tie for the most seats, the winner is the party that enters government; if that doesn't resolve the tie, the winner is the party with the higher share of the vote. If an election is postponed, the contract remains open until the new date, for a maximum of two years. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.\n\n\nPartial elections: Only seats/positions actually contested in the specified election count\n\n\nIf a formal pre-election coalition wins the most seats, the contract for that coalition resolves to Yes, while contracts for its individual member parties (if also listed) resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.041,
      "implied_probability": 0.041,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1.2710000000000001,
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      "tags": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRRTJHQJ11",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXBRAZILSENATE-26OCT04-UNIAO",
      "question": "Will Brazil Union win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election?",
      "description": "Brazil Union",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Brazil Union: The Brazilian Superior Electoral Court's official proclamation of Senate election results, published by October 4, 2026, resolves which party won the most seats.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Brazil Union wins 2026 Brazilian Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For a parliamentary election, the winner is the party or formal pre-election coalition that wins the most seats in the specified chamber, even if they do not form the government. If there is a tie for the most seats, the winner is the party that enters government; if that doesn't resolve the tie, the winner is the party with the higher share of the vote. If an election is postponed, the contract remains open until the new date, for a maximum of two years. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.\n\n\nPartial elections: Only seats/positions actually contested in the specified election count\n\n\nIf a formal pre-election coalition wins the most seats, the contract for that coalition resolves to Yes, while contracts for its individual member parties (if also listed) resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2.76,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "threshold": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "election",
        "senate"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "status": "not_eligible",
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