{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRRTJHQJ11",
  "slug": "kxbrazilsenate-26oct04",
  "question": "Will the Brazilian Senate election occur by 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "brazilian-politics",
    "senate-elections",
    "party-performance",
    "2027",
    "electoral-outcomes"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track party-level outcomes in the 2026 Brazilian Senate election. Each Kalshi contract isolates one party: Liberal Party, Social Democratic Party, Workers' Party, Brazilian Democratic Movement, and Brazil Union. The five binary contracts collectively map the field of plausible winning coalitions. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination using the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court's official proclamation.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KNRDHDNDK8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.78,
    "implied_probability": 0.78,
    "as_of": "2026-08-28T06:00:59.261Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KNRDHDNDK8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRRTJHQJ11",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBRAZILSENATE-26OCT04-PL",
      "question": "Will Liberal Party win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election?",
      "description": "Liberal Party",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Liberal Party: The Brazilian Superior Electoral Court's official proclamation of Senate election results, published by October 4, 2026, resolves which party won the most seats.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Liberal Party wins 2026 Brazilian Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.\n\nThis market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.78,
      "implied_probability": 0.78,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-28T06:00:59.261Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 9488.193000000001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "brazil",
        "election",
        "liberal party",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
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          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HVYX9Q4KH5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRRTJHQJ11",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBRAZILSENATE-26OCT04-PSD",
      "question": "Will Social Democratic Party win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election?",
      "description": "Social Democratic Party",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Social Democratic Party: The Brazilian Superior Electoral Court's official proclamation of Senate election results, published by October 4, 2026, resolves which party won the most seats.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Social Democratic Party wins 2026 Brazilian Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.\n\nThis market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "brazil",
        "election",
        "senate",
        "social democratic party"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
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          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-37WDFJD8S2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRRTJHQJ11",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBRAZILSENATE-26OCT04-PT",
      "question": "Will Workers' Party win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election?",
      "description": "Workers' Party",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Workers' Party: The Brazilian Superior Electoral Court's official proclamation of Senate election results, published by October 4, 2026, resolves which party won the most seats.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Workers' Party wins 2026 Brazilian Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.\n\nThis market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.066,
      "implied_probability": 0.066,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-05T10:00:55.934Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2.838,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "brazil",
        "election",
        "senate",
        "workers party"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
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          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QCNCBV5CW3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRRTJHQJ11",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBRAZILSENATE-26OCT04-MDB",
      "question": "Will Brazilian Democratic Movement win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election?",
      "description": "Brazilian Democratic Movement",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Brazilian Democratic Movement: The Brazilian Superior Electoral Court's official proclamation of Senate election results, published by October 4, 2026, resolves which party won the most seats.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Brazilian Democratic Movement wins 2026 Brazilian Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.\n\nThis market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "official electoral commission",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-20T07:01:21.164Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 67.0664,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "brazil",
        "brazilian democratic movement",
        "election",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RMHYDGYJP8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRRTJHQJ11",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBRAZILSENATE-26OCT04-UNIAO",
      "question": "Will Brazil Union win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election?",
      "description": "Brazil Union",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Brazil Union: The Brazilian Superior Electoral Court's official proclamation of Senate election results, published by October 4, 2026, resolves which party won the most seats.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Brazil Union wins 2026 Brazilian Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.\n\nThis market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
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            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "official electoral commission",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "score": 74,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.086,
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      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "brazil",
        "brazil union",
        "election",
        "senate"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-ZRRTJHQJ11",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}