{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-GZ95QDFPN6",
  "slug": "kxbrballot-26",
  "question": "Who will run for President of Brazil?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "brazilian-politics",
    "presidential-election",
    "2026-election",
    "candidate-announcement",
    "latin-america"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track ballot eligibility for seven named candidates in Brazil's October 2026 presidential election. Each Kalshi contract isolates a single candidate, pricing a binary yes/no on whether that individual appears on the ballot. All seven resolve via Kalshi staff determination against official Brazilian electoral authority records. Jair Bolsonaro's contract carries distinct legal risk given his ongoing electoral ineligibility proceedings before the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-K5KNYRDYH7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.902,
    "implied_probability": 0.902
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K5KNYRDYH7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GZ95QDFPN6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBRBALLOT-26-LULA",
      "question": "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election?",
      "description": "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: The named candidate's ballot eligibility for the referenced Brazilian presidential election resolves per Kalshi staff determination by October 4, 2026, using Brazil's Superior Electoral Court official records.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is on the official ballot for the next Brazilian Presidential election first round, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Brazilian government",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.tse.jus.br/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Brazilian government",
            "url": "https://www.tse.jus.br/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Brazilian government",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.902,
      "implied_probability": 0.902,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 57571.28652,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "candidate",
        "luiz cio lula",
        "presidential"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FQJFLFMJH5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GZ95QDFPN6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBRBALLOT-26-JB",
      "question": "Will Jair Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election?",
      "description": "Jair Bolsonaro",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Jair Bolsonaro: The named candidate's ballot eligibility for the referenced Brazilian presidential election resolves per Kalshi staff determination by October 4, 2026, using Brazil's Superior Electoral Court official records.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Jair Bolsonaro is on the official ballot for the next Brazilian Presidential election first round, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Brazilian government",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.tse.jus.br/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Brazilian government",
            "url": "https://www.tse.jus.br/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Brazilian government",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.063,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 9.38826,
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      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GZ95QDFPN6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBRBALLOT-26-FBOL",
      "question": "Will Flávio Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election?",
      "description": "Flávio Bolsonaro",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Flávio Bolsonaro: The named candidate's ballot eligibility for the referenced Brazilian presidential election resolves per Kalshi staff determination by October 4, 2026, using Brazil's Superior Electoral Court official records.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Flávio Bolsonaro is on the official ballot for the next Brazilian Presidential election first round, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Brazilian government",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.tse.jus.br/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "Brazilian government",
            "url": "https://www.tse.jus.br/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Brazilian government",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.86,
      "implied_probability": 0.86,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 23823.375999999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "brazil",
        "candidate",
        "fl vio bolsonaro",
        "presidential"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BY504KHYB9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GZ95QDFPN6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBRBALLOT-26-EBOL",
      "question": "Will Eduardo Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election?",
      "description": "Eduardo Bolsonaro",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Eduardo Bolsonaro: The named candidate's ballot eligibility for the referenced Brazilian presidential election resolves per Kalshi staff determination by October 4, 2026, using Brazil's Superior Electoral Court official records.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Eduardo Bolsonaro is on the official ballot for the next Brazilian Presidential election first round, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Brazilian government",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.tse.jus.br/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Brazilian government",
            "url": "https://www.tse.jus.br/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Brazilian government",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.043,
      "implied_probability": 0.043,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.043,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "brazil",
        "candidate",
        "eduardo bolsonaro",
        "presidential"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BNWV3ZSVY5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GZ95QDFPN6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBRBALLOT-26-RJUN",
      "question": "Will Ratinho Júnior be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election?",
      "description": "Ratinho Júnior",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ratinho Júnior: The named candidate's ballot eligibility for the referenced Brazilian presidential election resolves per Kalshi staff determination by October 4, 2026, using Brazil's Superior Electoral Court official records.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ratinho Júnior is on the official ballot for the next Brazilian Presidential election first round, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Brazilian government",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.tse.jus.br/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "Brazilian government",
            "url": "https://www.tse.jus.br/",
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        "source_of_record": "Brazilian government",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.011,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 102.146,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Will Renan Santos be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election?",
      "description": "Renan Santos",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Renan Santos: The named candidate's ballot eligibility for the referenced Brazilian presidential election resolves per Kalshi staff determination by October 4, 2026, using Brazil's Superior Electoral Court official records.",
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        "rules_raw": "If Renan Santos is on the official ballot for the next Brazilian Presidential election first round, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "Brazilian government",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXBRBALLOT-26-TFRI",
      "question": "Will Tarcisio de Frietas be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election?",
      "description": "Tarcisio de Frietas",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Tarcisio de Frietas: The named candidate's ballot eligibility for the referenced Brazilian presidential election resolves per Kalshi staff determination by October 4, 2026, using Brazil's Superior Electoral Court official records.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
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        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Brazilian government",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.tse.jus.br/",
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      "tags": [
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        "candidate",
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-GZ95QDFPN6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}