{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-NWN8Q06H64",
  "slug": "kxbrpres1r-26oct04",
  "question": "Will there be a first round winner in the Brazil presidential election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "brazil-politics",
    "presidential-election",
    "first-round-outcome",
    "2027",
    "electoral-mechanism"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which candidate wins the first round of Brazil's October 2026 presidential election. Each Kalshi contract isolates a single candidate's outcome. All seven resolve via Kalshi staff determination using Brazil's Superior Electoral Court official proclamation. A first-round win requires one candidate to clear 50% of valid votes outright.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-VCH81QWKW4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.8
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P3CVPSR5H9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NWN8Q06H64",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBRPRES1R-26OCT04-FBOL",
      "question": "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?",
      "description": "Flávio Bolsonaro",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Flávio Bolsonaro: Brazil's Superior Electoral Court official proclamation of first-round results from the 2026 presidential election, with resolution by October 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Flávio Bolsonaro wins the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
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          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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        "source_of_record": "official electoral commission",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBRPRES1R-26OCT04-LSIL",
      "question": "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?",
      "description": "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: Brazil's Superior Electoral Court official proclamation of first-round results from the 2026 presidential election, with resolution by October 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
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        "score": 90,
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      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXBRPRES1R-26OCT04-RSAN",
      "question": "Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?",
      "description": "Renan Santos",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Renan Santos: Brazil's Superior Electoral Court official proclamation of first-round results from the 2026 presidential election, with resolution by October 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If Renan Santos wins the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
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      "question": "Will Romeu Zema win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?",
      "description": "Romeu Zema",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Romeu Zema: Brazil's Superior Electoral Court official proclamation of first-round results from the 2026 presidential election, with resolution by October 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Romeu Zema wins the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
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        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
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          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NWN8Q06H64",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBRPRES1R-26OCT04-FHAD",
      "question": "Will Fernando Haddad win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?",
      "description": "Fernando Haddad",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Fernando Haddad: Brazil's Superior Electoral Court official proclamation of first-round results from the 2026 presidential election, with resolution by October 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
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        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXBRPRES1R-26OCT04-RCAI",
      "question": "Will Ronaldo Caiado win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?",
      "description": "Ronaldo Caiado",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ronaldo Caiado: Brazil's Superior Electoral Court official proclamation of first-round results from the 2026 presidential election, with resolution by October 4, 2026.",
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      "underlying_reference": "Tarcísio de Freitas: Brazil's Superior Electoral Court official proclamation of first-round results from the 2026 presidential election, with resolution by October 4, 2026.",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If Tarcísio de Freitas wins the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
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}