{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-K4G2KNQFY8",
  "slug": "kxbrpresident2-brpres26-2",
  "question": "Will the second-place finisher in the first round of the Brazil Presidential Election be determined by October 4, 2027?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "brazil-politics",
    "presidential-election",
    "2026-election",
    "first-round",
    "electoral-outcome"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which named candidate finishes second in the first round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election. Each Kalshi contract is a binary on a single candidate's placement, resolved via Kalshi staff determination against certification by Brazil's election authority, the Tribunal Superior Electoral. All 13 contracts are mutually exclusive; exactly one resolves yes. Markets close and resolve on October 4, 2026, the scheduled first-round date.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-1HFH54RSS4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.87,
    "implied_probability": 0.87
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8TV0JGV689",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K4G2KNQFY8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2-AREB",
      "question": "Will Aldo Rebelo finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?",
      "description": "Aldo Rebelo",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Aldo Rebelo: Brazil's election authority certifies the listed candidate's finish position in the first round of the 2026 presidential election by October 4, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Aldo Rebelo finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRanking is determined by the specified counting method:\nFor plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage\nFor ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order (runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place)\nFor two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-round totals\nFor proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order\n\nIn case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific \"Write-in\" or \"Other\" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "aldo rebelo",
        "brazil",
        "presidential"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BCF9M0Z439",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K4G2KNQFY8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2-CGOM",
      "question": "Will Ciro Gomes finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?",
      "description": "Ciro Gomes",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ciro Gomes: Brazil's election authority certifies the listed candidate's finish position in the first round of the 2026 presidential election by October 4, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ciro Gomes finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRanking is determined by the specified counting method:\nFor plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage\nFor ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order (runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place)\nFor two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-round totals\nFor proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order\n\nIn case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific \"Write-in\" or \"Other\" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "brazil",
        "ciro gomes",
        "presidential"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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            "category_not_permitted"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0DVBNJ39Z6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K4G2KNQFY8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2-EBOL",
      "question": "Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?",
      "description": "Eduardo Bolsonaro",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Eduardo Bolsonaro: Brazil's election authority certifies the listed candidate's finish position in the first round of the 2026 presidential election by October 4, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Eduardo Bolsonaro finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRanking is determined by the specified counting method:\nFor plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage\nFor ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order (runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place)\nFor two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-round totals\nFor proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order\n\nIn case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific \"Write-in\" or \"Other\" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "brazil",
        "eduardo bolsonaro",
        "presidential"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PFVMPJCWL2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K4G2KNQFY8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2-FHAD",
      "question": "Will Fernando Haddad finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?",
      "description": "Fernando Haddad",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Fernando Haddad: Brazil's election authority certifies the listed candidate's finish position in the first round of the 2026 presidential election by October 4, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Fernando Haddad finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRanking is determined by the specified counting method:\nFor plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage\nFor ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order (runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place)\nFor two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-round totals\nFor proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order\n\nIn case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific \"Write-in\" or \"Other\" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "brazil",
        "fernando haddad",
        "presidential"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1HFH54RSS4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K4G2KNQFY8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2-FBOL",
      "question": "Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?",
      "description": "Flávio Bolsonaro",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Flávio Bolsonaro: Brazil's election authority certifies the listed candidate's finish position in the first round of the 2026 presidential election by October 4, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRanking is determined by the specified counting method:\nFor plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage\nFor ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order (runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place)\nFor two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-round totals\nFor proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order\n\nIn case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific \"Write-in\" or \"Other\" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.87,
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      "tags": [
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        "brazil",
        "fl vio bolsonaro",
        "presidential"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X2B8ZN34L3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K4G2KNQFY8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2-JBOL",
      "question": "Will Jair Bolsonaro finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?",
      "description": "Jair Bolsonaro",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Jair Bolsonaro: Brazil's election authority certifies the listed candidate's finish position in the first round of the 2026 presidential election by October 4, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Jair Bolsonaro finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRanking is determined by the specified counting method:\nFor plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage\nFor ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order (runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place)\nFor two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-round totals\nFor proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order\n\nIn case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific \"Write-in\" or \"Other\" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "brazil",
        "jair bolsonaro",
        "presidential"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QV9MPHLML7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K4G2KNQFY8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2-LSIL",
      "question": "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?",
      "description": "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: Brazil's election authority certifies the listed candidate's finish position in the first round of the 2026 presidential election by October 4, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRanking is determined by the specified counting method:\nFor plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage\nFor ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order (runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place)\nFor two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-round totals\nFor proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order\n\nIn case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific \"Write-in\" or \"Other\" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.06,
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      "volume_total_usd": 155.9988,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "brazil",
        "luiz cio lula",
        "presidential"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-98FX927Y50",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K4G2KNQFY8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2-MBOL",
      "question": "Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?",
      "description": "Michelle Bolsonaro",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Michelle Bolsonaro: Brazil's election authority certifies the listed candidate's finish position in the first round of the 2026 presidential election by October 4, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
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