{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5962DW2PB4",
  "slug": "kxbtchalf",
  "question": "Will Bitcoin have its next halving by 2028?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "bitcoin-halving",
    "cryptocurrency-economics",
    "blockchain-events",
    "scheduled-occurrence",
    "2028"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the timing of Bitcoin's next block subsidy halving, expected around early 2028. The Bitcoin protocol's block height schedule is the authoritative source; Kalshi staff determination resolves each contract. Each market is a discrete binary strike at a monthly threshold: March, April, May, or June 2028. Together they form an implied probability distribution over the halving's arrival month.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-JPM74P9QN9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.8,
    "implied_probability": 0.8
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G57TKTBFT1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5962DW2PB4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBTCHALF-28MAR",
      "question": "When will Bitcoin have its next halving?",
      "description": "Before Mar 2028",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Mar 2028: Bitcoin's next halving date will be determined by the Bitcoin protocol's block height schedule, with Kalshi staff verification against authoritative blockchain records by May 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If Bitcoin halves before Mar 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The New York Times",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.081,
      "implied_probability": 0.081,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 774.3770099999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "event",
        "halving"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4C57N8G3B2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5962DW2PB4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBTCHALF-28APR",
      "question": "When will Bitcoin have its next halving?",
      "description": "Before Apr 2028",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Apr 2028: Bitcoin's next halving date will be determined by the Bitcoin protocol's block height schedule, with Kalshi staff verification against authoritative blockchain records by May 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-04-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-04-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Bitcoin halves before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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      "last_price": 0.49,
      "implied_probability": 0.49,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.9652999999999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 2279.1272,
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JPM74P9QN9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5962DW2PB4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBTCHALF-28MAY",
      "question": "When will Bitcoin have its next halving?",
      "description": "Before May 2028",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before May 2028: Bitcoin's next halving date will be determined by the Bitcoin protocol's block height schedule, with Kalshi staff verification against authoritative blockchain records by May 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-05-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-05-01T14:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If Bitcoin halves before May 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "The New York Times",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BZY1TN8BL1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5962DW2PB4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBTCHALF-28JUN",
      "question": "When will Bitcoin have its next halving?",
      "description": "Before Jun 2028",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jun 2028: Bitcoin's next halving date will be determined by the Bitcoin protocol's block height schedule, with Kalshi staff verification against authoritative blockchain records by May 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-06-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-06-01T14:00:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Bitcoin halves before Jun 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "The New York Times",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-5962DW2PB4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}