{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-GGYFRW54C0",
  "slug": "kxbtcmax150-25",
  "question": "Bitcoin price in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      null,
      150000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 150000,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 150000,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 150000,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 150000,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 150000,
        "prob": 4
      },
      {
        "threshold": 150000,
        "prob": 1
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "bitcoin-price",
    "crypto-markets",
    "price-milestone",
    "2026",
    "technical-levels"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Bitcoin reaches $150,000 by discrete calendar deadlines through 2026. Each contract is a binary threshold question against the same price level, staggered by month. Kalshi staff determine resolution using the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Reference Index closing price. The near-term June 2026 contract prices urgency; the December 2026 contract prices the full-year probability.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-M49QNFL094",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.01,
    "implied_probability": 0.01
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M49QNFL094",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GGYFRW54C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMAX150-25-26MAY31-149999.99",
      "question": "When will Bitcoin hit $150k?",
      "description": "Before June 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before June 2026: CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Reference Index (BRTI) closing price on or before June 30, 2026, 14:40 UTC, determined by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-31T14:40:11Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T14:40:11Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the price of Bitcoin is above 149999.99 by May 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe Contract is settled by taking an average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) in any sixty second period, excluding the top 20% and bottom 20% of values. Data is used 24/7 to resolve the contract.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks",
            "url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 63945.95,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 150000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "btc",
        "price",
        "threshold"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_enumerated_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5LHTKVYLG7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GGYFRW54C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMAX150-25-26JUN30-149999.99",
      "question": "Will Bitcoin be above $149999.99 by Jun 30, 2026 at 11:59pm ET?",
      "description": "Before July 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before July 2026: CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Reference Index (BRTI) closing price on or before June 30, 2026, 14:40 UTC, determined by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the price of Bitcoin is above 149999.99 by || Date || at || Time ||, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe Contract is settled by taking an average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) in any sixty second period, excluding the top 20% and bottom 20% of values. Data is used 24/7 to resolve the contract.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks",
            "url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4245.77,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 150000,
      "question_id": "CMX-1C57A90350",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "btc",
        "price",
        "threshold"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_enumerated_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RLRH0FB3D7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GGYFRW54C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMAX150-25-26JUL31-149999.99",
      "question": "Will Bitcoin be above $149999.99 by Jul 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET?",
      "description": "Before August 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before August 2026: CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Reference Index (BRTI) closing price on or before June 30, 2026, 14:40 UTC, determined by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the price of Bitcoin is above 149999.99 by || Date || at || Time ||, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe Contract is settled by taking an average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) in any sixty second period, excluding the top 20% and bottom 20% of values. Data is used 24/7 to resolve the contract.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks",
            "url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 13.3806,
      "volume_total_usd": 8839.4185,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 150000,
      "question_id": "CMX-7DF82B10F8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "btc",
        "price",
        "threshold"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_enumerated_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LJ71D2K8L9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GGYFRW54C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMAX150-25-26AUG31-149999.99",
      "question": "Will Bitcoin be above $149999.99 by Aug 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET?",
      "description": "Before September 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before September 2026: CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Reference Index (BRTI) closing price on or before June 30, 2026, 14:40 UTC, determined by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the price of Bitcoin is above || Count || by || Date || at || Time ||, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe Contract is settled by taking an average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) in any sixty second period, excluding the top 20% and bottom 20% of values. Data is used 24/7 to resolve the contract.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks",
            "url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 50.726499999999994,
      "volume_total_usd": 9101.615600000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 150000,
      "question_id": "CMX-0DF5C1722A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "btc",
        "price",
        "threshold"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_enumerated_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4MY6CZG4V3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GGYFRW54C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMAX150-25-26DEC31-149999.99",
      "question": "Will Bitcoin be above $149999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET?",
      "description": "Before January 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before January 2027: CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Reference Index (BRTI) closing price on or before June 30, 2026, 14:40 UTC, determined by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-31T04:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the price of Bitcoin is above || Count || by || Date || at || Time ||, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe Contract is settled by taking an average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) in any sixty second period, excluding the top 20% and bottom 20% of values. Data is used 24/7 to resolve the contract.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks",
            "url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 140.82000000000002,
      "volume_total_usd": 42465.2785,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 150000,
      "question_id": "CMX-FDA0EE8E53",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "btc",
        "price",
        "threshold"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_enumerated_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MDJTDGNNL6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GGYFRW54C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMAX150-25-26APR30-149999.99",
      "question": "When will Bitcoin hit $150k?",
      "description": "Before May 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before May 2026: CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Reference Index (BRTI) closing price on or before June 30, 2026, 14:40 UTC, determined by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-31T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the price of Bitcoin is || Above/Below || 149999.99 by Apr 30, 2026 at 11:59pm ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe Contract is settled by taking an average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) in any sixty second period, excluding the top 20% and bottom 20% of values. Data is used 24/7 to resolve the contract.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks",
            "url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 36789.44,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 150000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "btc",
        "price",
        "threshold"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_enumerated_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5LHTKVYLG7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-09T16:21:10.985462Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0.01,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M49QNFL094",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-01T16:51:17.493163Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0.01,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MDJTDGNNL6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-05-31T03:59:00Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-GGYFRW54C0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}