{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-NHW1YL14S9",
  "slug": "kxbtcminy-27jan01",
  "question": "Bitcoin minimum price, January 1, 2027",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "below",
    "implied_band": [
      40000,
      60000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 40000,
        "prob": 32
      },
      {
        "threshold": 45000,
        "prob": 40
      },
      {
        "threshold": 50000,
        "prob": 54
      },
      {
        "threshold": 55000,
        "prob": 67
      },
      {
        "threshold": 60000,
        "prob": 99
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "bitcoin-price",
    "crypto-trading",
    "price-floor",
    "2026-resolution",
    "volatility-bet"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Bitcoin breaches discrete downside thresholds by January 1, 2027. Kalshi structures the event as a laddered series of binary strikes at $60K, $55K, $50K, $45K, and $40K. Each strike prices an independent yes/no outcome, letting traders express probability across a range of drawdown scenarios. Resolution uses Kalshi staff determination referencing the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Reference Index closing value on January 1, 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-NL60P52GL4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.25,
    "implied_probability": 0.25
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X4LCZ7KNQ7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NHW1YL14S9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-60000.00",
      "question": "Will Bitcoin be below $60000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?",
      "description": "Below $60,000.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below $60,000.00: CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Reference Index (BRTI) closing value on January 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET determines resolution, with Kalshi staff verification by January 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-05T18:44:31Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $60000.00 starting Jan 1, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks",
            "url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1182266.13,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 60000,
      "question_id": "CMX-CDBE7E16C1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "btc",
        "floor",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_enumerated_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YTK79YFCM9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NHW1YL14S9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-55000.00",
      "question": "Will Bitcoin be below $55000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?",
      "description": "Below $55,000.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below $55,000.00: CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Reference Index (BRTI) closing value on January 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET determines resolution, with Kalshi staff verification by January 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $55000.00 starting Feb 5, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks",
            "url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.58,
      "implied_probability": 0.58,
      "volume_24h_usd": 24374.0824,
      "volume_total_usd": 491963.93439999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 55000,
      "question_id": "CMX-E3DDA51304",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "btc",
        "floor",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_enumerated_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H7K1Y0SMW9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NHW1YL14S9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-50000.00",
      "question": "Will Bitcoin be below $50000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?",
      "description": "Below $50,000.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below $50,000.00: CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Reference Index (BRTI) closing value on January 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET determines resolution, with Kalshi staff verification by January 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $50000.00 starting Feb 5, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks",
            "url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.41,
      "implied_probability": 0.41,
      "volume_24h_usd": 9748.3445,
      "volume_total_usd": 355215.5171,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 50000,
      "question_id": "CMX-8F3138A3FA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "btc",
        "floor",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_enumerated_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B6XJL1QQQ5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NHW1YL14S9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-45000.00",
      "question": "Will Bitcoin be below $45000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?",
      "description": "Below $45,000.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below $45,000.00: CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Reference Index (BRTI) closing value on January 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET determines resolution, with Kalshi staff verification by January 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $45000.00 starting Feb 5, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks",
            "url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.36,
      "implied_probability": 0.36,
      "volume_24h_usd": 627.3864,
      "volume_total_usd": 211043.0772,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 45000,
      "question_id": "CMX-181783441D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "btc",
        "floor",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_enumerated_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NL60P52GL4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NHW1YL14S9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-40000.00",
      "question": "Will Bitcoin be below $40000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?",
      "description": "Below $40,000.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below $40,000.00: CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Reference Index (BRTI) closing value on January 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET determines resolution, with Kalshi staff verification by January 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $40000.00 starting Feb 5, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks",
            "url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.25,
      "implied_probability": 0.25,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1043.84,
      "volume_total_usd": 195275.315,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 40000,
      "question_id": "CMX-4FB1964097",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "btc",
        "floor",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_enumerated_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X4LCZ7KNQ7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2027-01-31T05:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0.99,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-NHW1YL14S9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}