{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FMPY92KRH8",
  "slug": "kxbtcvsgold-26",
  "question": "Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "bitcoin-vs-gold",
    "asset-performance",
    "cryptocurrency",
    "commodities",
    "2026-resolution"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Bitcoin's percentage return exceeds gold's percentage return over calendar year 2026. Kalshi staff will determine the outcome using CoinGecko price data for both assets. Resolution occurs after the 2027-01-01 settlement timestamp. Only one platform structures this event, so no cross-platform contrast applies.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-5GRQQFLHP3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.22,
    "implied_probability": 0.22
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5GRQQFLHP3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FMPY92KRH8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXBTCVSGOLD-26",
      "question": "Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026?",
      "description": "In 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kalshi staff determination of Bitcoin and gold percentage returns during 2026 using CoinGecko data.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Bitcoin outperforms gold in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe performance of gold will be determined by using ICE Data Service's prices provided by a variety of financial institutions. The performance of Bitcoin will be determined by using the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CoinGecko",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.coingecko.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CoinGecko",
            "url": "https://www.coingecko.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Financial Times",
            "url": "https://www.ft.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Yahoo Finance",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MarketWatch",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CoinDesk",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg Terminal",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Coinbase",
            "url": "https://investor.coinbase.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ICE Data Service",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.22,
      "implied_probability": 0.22,
      "volume_24h_usd": 59.752,
      "volume_total_usd": 47475.043,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-DCC97225B9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "bitcoin",
        "bitcoin vs gold",
        "gold",
        "relative performance"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-FMPY92KRH8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}