{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FZF66YJF9",
  "slug": "kxca04primary-26",
  "question": "Will two candidates advance from the California 4th Congressional District primary?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "california-politics",
    "2026-primary",
    "house-elections",
    "ca-04",
    "primary-advancement"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track advancement and victory in California's 2026 CA-04 congressional primary. Six markets price each named candidate's binary probability of advancing; one prices outright primary victory. California uses a top-two primary, so two advancers regardless of party face off in November. California county clerks certify results, with Kalshi staff determination as the resolution mechanism.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-FJK081JJ52",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.903,
    "implied_probability": 0.903
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PHFSYYHVL0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FZF66YJF9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCA04PRIMARY-26-MTHO",
      "question": "Who will advance from the 2026 CA-04 primary?",
      "description": "Mike Thompson",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Mike Thompson: California county clerks or boards of elections certify the primary election results, with Kalshi staff determination of the advancing candidate by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-03T14:32:52Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Mike Thompson advances in the 2026 CA-04 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Attorney General of the United States",
            "url": "https://www.justice.gov/ag",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "relevant city/municipal clerk",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Election Commission",
            "url": "https://www.fec.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "state board of elections or canvassing board",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Source Agencies are",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 12062.16,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "ca-04",
        "mike thompson",
        "primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FJK081JJ52",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FZF66YJF9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCA04PRIMARY-26-EJON",
      "question": "Who will advance from the 2026 CA-04 primary?",
      "description": "Eric Jones",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Eric Jones: California county clerks or boards of elections certify the primary election results, with Kalshi staff determination of the advancing candidate by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Eric Jones advances in the 2026 CA-04 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Attorney General of the United States",
            "url": "https://www.justice.gov/ag",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "relevant city/municipal clerk",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Election Commission",
            "url": "https://www.fec.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "state board of elections or canvassing board",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Source Agencies are",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.903,
      "implied_probability": 0.903,
      "volume_24h_usd": 781.11,
      "volume_total_usd": 47171.82,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "ca-04",
        "eric jones",
        "primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YSWWWV8TT8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FZF66YJF9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCA04PRIMARY-26-SBRO",
      "question": "Who will advance from the 2026 CA-04 primary?",
      "description": "Sharon Brown",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Sharon Brown: California county clerks or boards of elections certify the primary election results, with Kalshi staff determination of the advancing candidate by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Sharon Brown advances in the 2026 CA-04 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Attorney General of the United States",
            "url": "https://www.justice.gov/ag",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "relevant city/municipal clerk",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Election Commission",
            "url": "https://www.fec.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "state board of elections or canvassing board",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Source Agencies are",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.11,
      "volume_total_usd": 43.69,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "ca-04",
        "primary",
        "sharon brown"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0M1Z8LH7Z8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FZF66YJF9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCA04PRIMARY-26-HFUL",
      "question": "Who will advance from the 2026 CA-04 primary?",
      "description": "Heath Fulkerson",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Heath Fulkerson: California county clerks or boards of elections certify the primary election results, with Kalshi staff determination of the advancing candidate by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Heath Fulkerson advances in the 2026 CA-04 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Attorney General of the United States",
            "url": "https://www.justice.gov/ag",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "relevant city/municipal clerk",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Election Commission",
            "url": "https://www.fec.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "state board of elections or canvassing board",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Source Agencies are",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.008,
      "implied_probability": 0.008,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.85,
      "volume_total_usd": 26.34,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "ca-04",
        "heath fulkerson",
        "primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0BTQWHVHJ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FZF66YJF9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCA04PRIMARY-26-MGHU",
      "question": "Who will advance from the 2026 CA-04 primary?",
      "description": "Mandy Ghusar",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Mandy Ghusar: California county clerks or boards of elections certify the primary election results, with Kalshi staff determination of the advancing candidate by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Mandy Ghusar advances in the 2026 CA-04 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Attorney General of the United States",
            "url": "https://www.justice.gov/ag",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "relevant city/municipal clerk",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Election Commission",
            "url": "https://www.fec.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "state board of elections or canvassing board",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Source Agencies are",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1.16,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "ca-04",
        "mandy ghusar",
        "primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-30HSWKGH27",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FZF66YJF9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCA04PRIMARY-26-LMAC",
      "question": "Who will advance from the 2026 CA-04 primary?",
      "description": "Laurie MacKenzie",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Laurie MacKenzie: California county clerks or boards of elections certify the primary election results, with Kalshi staff determination of the advancing candidate by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Laurie MacKenzie advances in the 2026 CA-04 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Attorney General of the United States",
            "url": "https://www.justice.gov/ag",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "relevant city/municipal clerk",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Election Commission",
            "url": "https://www.fec.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "state board of elections or canvassing board",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Source Agencies are",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1.25,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "ca-04",
        "laurie mackenzie",
        "primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9VXX8K7R06",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FZF66YJF9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCA04PRIMARY-26-RRIE",
      "question": "Who will win the 2026 CA-04 primary?",
      "description": "Ray Riehle",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ray Riehle: California county clerks or boards of elections certify the primary election results, with Kalshi staff determination of the advancing candidate by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ray Riehle advances in the 2026 CA-04 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Attorney General of the United States",
            "url": "https://www.justice.gov/ag",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "relevant city/municipal clerk",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Election Commission",
            "url": "https://www.fec.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "state board of elections or canvassing board",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Source Agencies are",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
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